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Pick 4 Keepers, 2-QB League, Unique Scoring (WHIR)

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Pick 4 Keepers, 2-QB League, Unique Scoring (WHIR)

Postby ahicks58 » Tue Jun 04, 2013 3:15 pm

10 managers in league. Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, WR/RB, WR/TE
Can keep up to four players, but each counts as a draft pick (i.e. if you keep x players you forfeit your 1st - xth picks).

Scoring Format:
Passing: TD = 6 Rush/Rec: TD = 6
Int = -3 Fum = -3
40 yd = 1 15 yd = 1
Comp. = 0.5 Carry = 0.25
Inc. = -0.5 Rec = 0.5
(Note that passing TD's & efficiency are rewarded over yardage/volume)

Players under consideration:
QB: Brees, Stafford, Russell Wilson
RB: Doug Martin, Alfred Morris
WR: A.J Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker

Thoughts: (I apologize in advance for length, but it helps me think it through if I type it all out.)

2QB + scoring system makes QB the most valued position. Elite QB's are always in demand, I often spend early picks on a 3rd one to trade later. Last year, my first 3 picks were Brees, Stafford, & Rivers. I then traded Rivers for A.J. & Julio (Yahoo! autodraft left the other guy with Ponder and Wheeden as starters).

Also, since RB is the most-injured position, I value elite WR's over elite RB's when drafting. I also have a good track record of getting decent value at RB in later rounds or as starters get hurt as the season progresses.

I could follow this strategy and keep my 3 QB's + 1 WR. Also, the owner of Tom Brady & Megatron is interested in trading them for two of my WR/RB's. I would then also keep Brees and either Wilson/Stafford, and look to trade Brady at first good opportunity (I don't want to keep two 34+ year old QB's on my roster for too long in a keeper league).

However, this year's depth at QB makes me reconsider this strategy. Also, I have excellent options at RB & WR. The only player I'm sure I'll keep is Brees (I think he's due for a "Screw you, NFL" year similar to 2007 Brady after Spygate). I could keep him, Martin, AJ, & Julio, and get a 2nd QB of the Cutler/Flacco/Dalton caliber in the 5th round (not a bad nucleus).

I'm not quite sure about how to value Wilson, Stafford, Martin, or Morris. Summary of my analysis:
Wilson: Limited sample size; struggled early but looked like Steve Young late
Stafford: Coming off "down" year with over 5000 yds, albeit with injury-plagued receivers.
Adding Reggie Bush should improve efficiency
Martin: Limited sample size; good production despite Blount getting more touches than he should have.
A tad inconsistent; disproportionate fraction of production came in only two games.
Morris: Don't know why he's only ranked 10-15 among RB's in expert 2013 dynasty rankings.
Consistent production; looks like Terrell Davis but I guess Shanahan can be dastardly when it comes to RB's

How would you guys rank my players, either by position or all-together?

As always, WHIR
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Re: Pick 4 Keepers, 2-QB League, Unique Scoring (WHIR)

Postby flotsamnjetsam » Tue Jun 04, 2013 4:54 pm

ahicks58 wrote:10 managers in league. Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, WR/RB, WR/TE
Can keep up to four players, but each counts as a draft pick (i.e. if you keep x players you forfeit your 1st - xth picks).

Scoring Format:
Passing: TD = 6 Rush/Rec: TD = 6
Int = -3 Fum = -3
40 yd = 1 15 yd = 1
Comp. = 0.5 Carry = 0.25
Inc. = -0.5 Rec = 0.5
(Note that passing TD's & efficiency are rewarded over yardage/volume)

Players under consideration:
QB: Brees, Stafford, Russell Wilson
RB: Doug Martin, Alfred Morris
WR: A.J Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker

Thoughts: (I apologize in advance for length, but it helps me think it through if I type it all out.)

2QB + scoring system makes QB the most valued position. Elite QB's are always in demand, I often spend early picks on a 3rd one to trade later. Last year, my first 3 picks were Brees, Stafford, & Rivers. I then traded Rivers for A.J. & Julio (Yahoo! autodraft left the other guy with Ponder and Wheeden as starters).

Also, since RB is the most-injured position, I value elite WR's over elite RB's when drafting. I also have a good track record of getting decent value at RB in later rounds or as starters get hurt as the season progresses.

I could follow this strategy and keep my 3 QB's + 1 WR. Also, the owner of Tom Brady & Megatron is interested in trading them for two of my WR/RB's. I would then also keep Brees and either Wilson/Stafford, and look to trade Brady at first good opportunity (I don't want to keep two 34+ year old QB's on my roster for too long in a keeper league).

However, this year's depth at QB makes me reconsider this strategy. Also, I have excellent options at RB & WR. The only player I'm sure I'll keep is Brees (I think he's due for a "Screw you, NFL" year similar to 2007 Brady after Spygate). I could keep him, Martin, AJ, & Julio, and get a 2nd QB of the Cutler/Flacco/Dalton caliber in the 5th round (not a bad nucleus).

I'm not quite sure about how to value Wilson, Stafford, Martin, or Morris. Summary of my analysis:
Wilson: Limited sample size; struggled early but looked like Steve Young late
Stafford: Coming off "down" year with over 5000 yds, albeit with injury-plagued receivers.
Adding Reggie Bush should improve efficiency
Martin: Limited sample size; good production despite Blount getting more touches than he should have.
A tad inconsistent; disproportionate fraction of production came in only two games.
Morris: Don't know why he's only ranked 10-15 among RB's in expert 2013 dynasty rankings.
Consistent production; looks like Terrell Davis but I guess Shanahan can be dastardly when it comes to RB's

How would you guys rank my players, either by position or all-together?

As always, WHIR



Can you trade for draft picks? I think I'd keep Brees, Martin, Green, and Julio. Then if you can trade for draft picks, I'd try to trade D.Thomas, A.Morris, Stafford, and R.Wilson for picks. Or maybe just D.Thomas and A.Morris so there's a chance to get one of the QB's back in the draft. I agree that you have a tough decision to make because you have so many players that are "keepable", and I agree that you have to keep Brees. After that, Martin/Green/Julio are all at the top of just about every dynasty rankings list that I've seen. Good luck! ;-D
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Re: Pick 4 Keepers, 2-QB League, Unique Scoring (WHIR)

Postby ahicks58 » Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:34 am

Can't keep four players AND trade previous years' players for picks. Wish I could, but it's either keep'em or lose'em. However, I can make predraft gentlemen's agreements with other players (e.g. I'll keep Martin & AJ, you keep Brady & Megatron, then we'll trade after the draft). They're only as valid as far as you trust the other manager not to change his mind, but we all know each other so that's not an issue.

Mine is not a bad problem to have (oh no, I have too many good options!), but I do want to make the best out of a good situation. Taking QB's with at least my first two picks has gotten to the past four straight championships, so I'm hesitant to deviate from this strategy. The depth at QB this year makes me consider it though.

As for expert dynasty rankings, most are for standard formats and don't value the position appropriately. When everyone is drafting at most 2 QB's (one starter & one backup), you're not too bad off if you wait too long and have to start the 13th best QB. Not so in a 2QB league, you might wind up starting the 30th best QB. With our efficiency-heavy scoring system, you're coming dangerously close to starting a QB who regularly loses points (i.e. Jamarcus Russell territory).

Thanks for the input.
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Re: Pick 4 Keepers, 2-QB League, Unique Scoring (WHIR)

Postby Indibuck » Wed Jun 05, 2013 10:15 pm

Brees and Wilson are the two no-brainers for me with your scoring system that values efficient QBs.

I would keep Martin and Green as well. Sucks to throw back talent like Jones, Thomas, Morris, Stafford et al but I think those 4 are your best options.

I would have no issues with you keeping either Jones or Thomas over Green, but I like all those WRs better than Morris with your scoring system.
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Re: Pick 4 Keepers, 2-QB League, Unique Scoring (WHIR)

Postby mzkp54 » Thu Jun 06, 2013 5:09 am

My 4 would be Brees, Wilson, Martin, and Green, and I'd be thrilled with those 4 as my keepers
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Re: Pick 4 Keepers, 2-QB League, Unique Scoring (WHIR)

Postby dugbrandon » Sat Jun 08, 2013 2:36 pm

Brees plus WIlson/Stafford + WR and Martin

OR

3 QB (one to trade for stud skill player) + WR

I'm not as high on Wilson as most and recognize that Stafford had a "terrible year" last season and will likely normalize, plus his efficiency should go up with the option or Bush to check down to now. I also feel like SEA is still going to run the hell out of Lynch and play a ball control game (while still realizing they have a big time YAC guy in Percy).
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Re: Pick 4 Keepers, 2-QB League, Unique Scoring (WHIR)

Postby jfarrell24 » Sun Jun 09, 2013 8:12 pm

I would keep Brees, Doug Martin, whichever WR you like most (I think Green is the best bet) and your choice of Stafford or Wilson. I'd go with Stafford.

Please help with mine, it's an easier one haha.

viewtopic.php?t=534037
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