I submit this for your consideration and feedback:
Adrian Peterson – Peterson’s abilities are on display and pass the eyeball test with flying colors every single time. Working against him is the history wherein runners never get 2,000 yards back-to-back; plus I don’t like that they got rid of Percy Harvin. I feel Minnesota making the playoffs last year was a bit of a fluke, and you need to be good in order to have a consistently heavy run game. That being said, some of the wins came on the legs of Adrian Peterson. Plus, at any time in any game he can break away for a huge TD run. Another thing to consider is the schedule the Vikings have have: from a fantasy perspective, Peterson has the second worst rushing schedule out of any RB in the league. That’s not good. While many will call Peterson “matchup-proof,” there is only so long a team with a terrible quarterback can fully rely on one guy to get it done week-in and week-out, especially with a tougher schedule than last year.
Arian Foster – the first thing on everybody’s mind right now is Foster’s calf injury. Houston management is treating it as a very minor, almost ignorable injury; but it’s interesting that Foster will miss all remaining OTA’s. Foster is a smooth runner. He doesn’t try to force things. He is patient. And he gets a boatload of carries (he had the most of any back last year). That, plus I like that he is on a winning team. Never hurts the running game! To add to this, Foster has the second most favorable fantasy RB schedule in the entire league. At first I didn’t agree with Foster above Peterson, but now I am starting to see the light.
Doug Martin – I don’t see any reason not to draft Martin #1 overall this year in fantasy. He's got nothing working against him, and everything working for him. He was #2 in fantasy RB’s last year; so if you follow the logic that Peterson will likely drop-off a bit, why wouldn’t Martin then become the de facto #1? Want more proof, here it is: Lagerrette Blount has been traded, and coach Mike Schiano is saying Martin will now be a three-down back, involved in the passing game. So, the guy who was #2 last year will be used even MORE than he was last year. Plus, he’s young and has no history of injury. Tampa Bay loves how this kid looks right now in the off-season, and he is now my #1 pick for the 2013 NFL fantasy draft.
QB: Romo RB: Martin / Lynch / Lacy / Ridley / Wilson / Michael WR: A Johnson / VJax / Gordon /Ja. Jones / Nicks / Douglas TE: Clay PK: Bailey; DST: KC (standard; 12-team)
Nothing against Martin as a RB, but he doesnt have the body of work showing he can do it from year to year. There is also a lack of confidence in TBs offense which plays into it. If they are behind a lot, they are passing more.
Same issues with lack of offense can be said about minnesota, but peterson has shown us over multiple years that he can still be a beast in an uninspiring offense and can carry the team.
Foster is on a team that scores a lot, and until he shows otherwise I see no reason to doubt him. Yes, he had lots of touches, but I will not be the guy to pass on him at #2 just because of that.
my RBs for 2013 Peterson - Clear #1, dont even have to think about it. Foster - Clear #2, if peterson off board, its a no brainer
After those 2, I would bunch guys like charles, lynch, martin, spiller as 3-6 in no particular order Then Morris, McCoy, Rice, Trich in no particular order.
murphysxm wrote:My big hesitation with Martin, is take out those two monster games and what do you have? Take the 385 yards and 5 TD's off his stats and is even in the conversation for round 1?
You can even say just take out that 1 game where he had 250 and 4 TDs, that 135 yard game isnt enough of an outlier to write off. Take that game off though and his rushing yards per game go from 91 to 80, an 11 YPG drop off. Plus his rushing TDs goes from .69PG to .47PG; so you can see that one game REALLY boosted his numbers by a ton. That being said even if you take that game off he was averaging 110 total yards per game which would have led to 1760 total yards, instead of the 1920 that he ended up with.
Back to the original post though you bring up the point about being on a bad team and i find that interesting. Both of them arent very good teams but the Bucs have a QB that they trust with some offensive weapons, so when they are down they turn to the pass. When the Vikings are down they trust AP more than Ponder so they turn to the run even though it goes against conventional strategy.
The other thing working against Martin is exactly why you used as a positive, he is young and was fairly inconsistent last year. He ended up with 1925 yards and 12 touchdowns; but out of those total 766 yards and 6 TDs came in a 4 game stretch in the middle of the year against very weak competition. In other words he got 40% of his total yards and 50% of his TDs in a 4 game stretch that comprises 25% of the season.
You obviously cant disregard those games but it worries me a little that so much of his production came in such a concentrated window against poor competition.