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The QB-Drafting Controversy

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The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby Dawinner127 » Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:41 pm

Every single year, we have this debate and every single year this thread becomes one of the most interesting. This year there are tons of QBs who are quality starters and more than serviceable in 10, 12 and even 14 team leagues.

Is it worth the early round pick with the depth of QBs this season? IMO, these 14 are all starter worthy and I wouldn't be upset with any of them starting on my team. I have been doing a few mock drafts (ya know, to try and get an early start) -- but I think the depth and player value at the other positions are much more valuable this year since the plethora of QBs. Thoughts?

Rodgers
Brees
Brady
Cam
Peyton
Wilson
Kaepernick
Matty Ice
Stafford
RG3
Luck
Romo
Eli
Big Ben
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Re: The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby m16a » Sun Jun 16, 2013 6:41 pm

Rodgers (3.03)
Brees (3.08)
Brady (5.02)
Cam (5.09)
Peyton (4.08)
Wilson (7.06)
Kaepernick (6.10)
Matty Ice (6.03)
Stafford (6.12)
RG3 (7.10)
Luck (7.12)
Romo (8.04)
Eli (9.09)
Big Ben (11.02)


Just for fun, I threw in Calc's ADPs as of June 16th (today) to your list of guys provided. (all from their 12 team PPR flex ADP) Based on those ADPs, I'm definitely thinking guys like Wilson, Kaep, Matty, and Luck are great targets. Good ADPs, good chance to finish top 15. Peyton is a guy I might push a bit for as well. I really like his chances this year. It's interesting how things change from season to season. Last year, it wasn't a surprise to see the top 3-5 guys gone in two rounds. This year, so far, the top guy isn't being taken until round three. Guys like Martin, Charles, Lynch, Morris, Dez, and Green having good seasons like they did have really changed the landscape from one season to the next. The way I see it, it's still draft RB + WR early and often, and hang back to the mid rounds on some of those solid QBs available.
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Re: The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby Dawinner127 » Sun Jun 16, 2013 7:07 pm

m16a wrote:Rodgers (3.03)
Brees (3.08)
Brady (5.02)
Cam (5.09)
Peyton (4.08)
Wilson (7.06)
Kaepernick (6.10)
Matty Ice (6.03)
Stafford (6.12)
RG3 (7.10)
Luck (7.12)
Romo (8.04)
Eli (9.09)
Big Ben (11.02)


Just for fun, I threw in Calc's ADPs as of June 16th (today) to your list of guys provided. (all from their 12 team PPR flex ADP) Based on those ADPs, I'm definitely thinking guys like Wilson, Kaep, Matty, and Luck are great targets. Good ADPs, good chance to finish top 15. Peyton is a guy I might push a bit for as well. I really like his chances this year. It's interesting how things change from season to season. Last year, it wasn't a surprise to see the top 3-5 guys gone in two rounds. This year, so far, the top guy isn't being taken until round three. Guys like Martin, Charles, Lynch, Morris, Dez, and Green having good seasons like they did have really changed the landscape from one season to the next. The way I see it, it's still draft RB + WR early and often, and hang back to the mid rounds on some of those solid QBs available.

Yeah, I didn't put these guys in any order. Just off the top of my head. It really is crazy to see how it changes year to year. We picked the draft order a few days ago in Vegas and I ended up landing the 1st pick. On the way back I have seen a lot of CJ2k, Harvin, Cruz, White, Brees at the 2/3 turn. Very, very interesting.
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Re: The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby Guru13 » Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:48 pm

I almost always wait on quarterbacks and often draft two within a couple rounds of each other so that if neither sets himself apart from the other I can play matchups. This year is a perfect scenario to wait as long as you want for a QB.
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Re: The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon Jun 17, 2013 3:55 pm

The only two guys on that list that I'd be really uncomfortable with as my starter are Eli and Big Ben. With Ben, you have almost zero breakout potential as he's never a guy who plays his way into the top 6 or 7 at the position and you have the injury concerns which have surfaced over the past few years. Big Ben is a solid bet to be in the top 15 among QBs from week to week and won't necessarily hurt you, but you're still giving away so much to the elite at the position.

With Eli, the inconsistency is just killer. He's certainly capable of the occasional big game and last year was no exception, but he only threw for multiple TDs in 6 of 16 regular season games and had a three game TD drought in October/November. Compare that to Peyton, who was a relatively cheap option at QB last year who threw for multiple TDs in 12 of 16, you're just forfeiting so much value and consistency at the QB position. I think Eli is firmly planted in QB2 territory.

Either one of these two should be looked at as a stopgap to finding a real QB for your roster, like hitting on this year's versions of Kaep, Wilson, or RG3. You'd have to project either as being better over a full season than guys like Vick, Bradford, Flacco or Tannehill, but the latter 4 have a lot more upside and I'd be rostering one or more of these and looking closely at the box scores over the first few weeks of the season hoping to strike gold on one.

Looking at the top 12 though, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about any of them. RG3 is still an injury concern, but I don't think it's out of the question that Kirk Cousins could be a viable fantasy stopgap even if he does suffer a setback. Luck would need to take at least a modest step forward to be a top 10 QB, but there's plenty of reason to believe that could happen. To me, Stafford is a bigger concern than Romo, but has plenty of rebound potential and still only had 2 games all of last season with less than 250 yards passing and his feature back is Reggie Bush.

All of that being said, I think people are looking at the overall depth of the QB position and are rightfully gleaning from it that the better value in the early rounds is coming from the RB/WR positions. While I tend to agree, there might be more of an opportunity for a 3/4 player outlier tier that still provides greater value in round 2 than the consensus will believe. I see mock drafts where Chris Johnson for example is selected ahead of Aaron Rodgers at the end of round 2.

Now a lot of the time that same team will end up with Russell Wilson in round 7 so superficially it's harder to see a scenario where that pick looks like a disaster without the benefit of seeing how much difference in value is plausible between a Rodgers and a Wilson, but for me I'm still very leery of taking a RB that I'm not sold on over a Rodgers, Brees, or even Cam.

For what it's worth, I was very much in the camp last year that QB was a position that was based on outlier talent and I had Rodgers, Brees, Brady and Cam as borderline 1st round picks/$40+ auction players, but the way the chips fell in my drafts, the rest of my leaguemates were largely thinking the same way and the price tag on the elite talents were pretty consistently still too high for my taste. So in one league I ended up waiting and grabbing Michael Vick for cheap and defaulting into Peyton Manning for super cheap ($9).

If my drafts this year play out the way I expect, there will be an opportunity to steal one of the elite QBs for $10 or so less than I would have valued them. The perceived flatness of the upper tier of QBs will lend itself to a large number of people who refuse to go much more than $20 at the position. In the right league, Rodgers for under 35 or Brees/Cam for under 30 could be a great get and a very reasonable possibility.
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Re: The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby Sex Panther » Mon Jun 17, 2013 6:16 pm

Being only the middle of June, hard to gauge.

That said, I'm fairly certain that I'll own Stafford, Luck, and/or Romo in multiple leagues this season.

Stafford was 2nd in the NFL in passing yards last year (just shy of 5K, over 10K yards passing the past 2 seasons combined), he only threw 20 TD... IMO the TD total is the anomaly.

Luck is going to be elite for the next 10 years, I fully expect him to match or exceed last seasons yardage total, TD total, and cut down on turnovers.

I can't stand Romo, but from a fantasy standpoint, he gets no respect - ever... since 2007 he has never finished worse than QB10 (with the exception of the year he was hurt - 2010) w/ 2 top 5 finishes for good measure.
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Re: The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby murphysxm » Mon Jun 17, 2013 8:09 pm

I am against taking QB's early out of general principal, but this year I think you are nuts if you take a QB in the 1st 3 rounds. The position is simply too deep to hurt yourself someplace else. I'll take a QB in round 10 that averages 20 points a game, while somebody else takes Rodgers and his 30ish average in round 1.
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Re: The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon Jun 17, 2013 9:57 pm

murphysxm wrote:I am against taking QB's early out of general principal, but this year I think you are nuts if you take a QB in the 1st 3 rounds. The position is simply too deep to hurt yourself someplace else. I'll take a QB in round 10 that averages 20 points a game, while somebody else takes Rodgers and his 30ish average in round 1.


The conundrum is simply: How many points of difference are there between RB in round 1 or RB in round 10? How many points of difference are there between Rodgers and QB in round 10?

Whichever is the greater difference is the position you draft. I don't, for the record, believe that Rodgers will outscore let's just say for example Andrew Luck by 10 points per game, but if I did think so, I think I'd take Rodgers here. 10 points a week is a huge advantage and I think over the course of the season, I'd be able to find a RB that can at least come within 10 points of the player I might have taken in round 1.

In either case, the example is slightly flawed because A: Rodgers is likely to be a second round pick this year in most leagues (based on the widely available conventional wisdom in the expert community and the mocks I've done) and B: It's almost impossible to project which round one would likely take their QB if they passed early because it would largely depend on the draft dynamics. Whether it's finally biting on Kaepernick in round 6 or Romo in round 8 or Luck in round 10, it would be crazy not to have some flexibility, so you don't know exactly what round of hypothetical RB you'd eventually be relying on if you instead took Rodgers in round 2.

I guess my main point is this:

Last year, the conventional wisdom (a lot of it anyway) said to pay for a top QB because the top 3-5 were outliers, but this created a climate where the bottom half of the top 10 or so were much cheaper and ended up being great values as the top tier got bigger and flattened out.

This year, the conventional wisdom is going to be that there are plenty of good QBs so don't reach for one so the opposite scenario could easily happen. The top 3-5 might just be outliers again and Rodgers in particular is a guy who might end up being a steal.
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Re: The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby Dawinner127 » Tue Jun 18, 2013 2:58 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:This year, the conventional wisdom is going to be that there are plenty of good QBs so don't reach for one so the opposite scenario could easily happen. The top 3-5 might just be outliers again and Rodgers in particular is a guy who might end up being a steal.

In that case, one might prefer to take a QB like Ryan, Kaep, or P. Manning in the middle of the draft, rather than reach early on one of the Big 3 QBs or wait for one of the 10 - 14 ranked Qbs. Therefore, you would still have a solid QB who could compete with the scores of the upper-echelon QBs, and a RB or WR who could compete or come within a few weekly points of the top RB/WRs.
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Re: The QB-Drafting Controversy

Postby CBMGreatOne » Tue Jun 18, 2013 3:51 pm

As an aside, RG3 is a guy who is likely to be climbing the draft rankings steadily as the regular season approaches. People drafting earlier in the summer are probably going to get him a lot cheaper than those drafting in early September. If you're doing an early draft, he might make a nice target, or at least a guy not to forget about.
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