THIS WILL probably get long... but it will only take you a few mins to read and it some good insite... what you think?
This leauge is kind of PPR... it is .75 of a point per reception...so not quite ppr but close... i have the 12th pick in a 12 team leauge...snake draft..
these players will prolly be gone... 1 AP 2 Foster 3 Lynch 4 Doug Martin 5 Charles 6 Spiller 7 Richardson 8 Morris 9 Ray Rice 10 Mccoy
I like to call them backs the LEGIT top 10 becuase no matter what site i go to they always seem to be the top 10 backs in whatever order but they always seem to be..
Assuming none of them backs will get to me... would it be a reach to take Bush at 12th overall or 13th overall? in a leauge that awards points per receptions... or close to it anyways?
I mean EVERYTHING i read says he is going to be a beast in PPR leauges...
I read this on a CBS web site: "The Lions have already talked about Bush possibly catching 80 passes this season, and he's expected to also get his share of rushing yards. We could see Bush getting over 1,500 total yards this year (he had at least 1,200 total yards in each of the past two seasons with the Dolphins) with about six total touchdowns, and he should be considered a solid No. 2 running back in standard leagues with the chance to be a No. 1 option in PPR formats. He's worth drafting toward the end of Round 2 or beginning of Round 3 in most leagues."
So if i dont take him 12th or 13th he wont get back to me and in a ppr leauge with them "top 10" gone he might be the best back at that pick...
THE THING THAT WORRIES ME... is it smart to take bush there and pass on getting ANOTHER AWESOME WR? Like lets say i could go like calvin J and aj green or even brandon marshall in PPR? all three studs and great picks in PPR but what that leave me for backs at pick like 36th overall?
I like the ceiling more for bush this year in ppr especially more then the usually banged up Forte or S. Jackson. Ridley… not that high in PPR… the guy had I think 5 receptions last year. Chris Johnson hasn’t been the best in recent years…solid but not the best and I have to imagine that TEN adding S. Greene WONT help him anyway… vulture his TDS.. MJD… always solid…. But getting older and turning into a injury risk… I feel the same about Gore.
I could take Brees? One of the safest picks in fantasy football IF NOT the safest pick.. the guy wont bust. Almost a LOCK for 4600 yards and 35 TDS minimum. But if I wait till like the 60th overall pick I can get a really good starting QB in R. Wilson, Stafford, maybe kapernick, Romo, RG3, Luck or even Eli, that’s not even mention possible like Vick, Bradford, or big ben. So I could pass on a Qb early and get a studs at other players.
So is that to high for Bush? Or with the 12th pick would it be smart to go WR WR in PPR if them WRS arelike marshal and green? Thoughts?
I think you need to take into account the other members of your league when attempting to predict if a player will fall to you. Do you think there will be a QB run in the 2nd round? Maybe there will be a lot of WRs taken. Do your league mates tend to go for depth early or do they like to fill out top starters first? Go back and look at previous drafts if you can and see if you can spot trends. Possibly positional runs easily started and do you fall prey to those runs? Just things to think about when drafting that get magnified by having late or early picks.
I have Bush very high on my PPR list as well and think he's a great option for a #2, especially with the swing pick. The Lions coaching staff aren't sold on Mikel Leshore yet and need to see if he can be healthy and consistent. I imagine they use Bush like they wanted to use Jahvid Best but Bush has significantly better inside running skills. Big year for Bush in my opinion.
Secondly, how sold are you on the Lions offense this season? Seems your targeting their top 3 fantasy players(Bush, Megatron, Stafford). It's never wise to have too many players from the same team. If you want to target Megatron with one of the swing picks I'm fine with that, but that means you either give up on Bush or Stafford later. Maybe target Darren Sproles or Steven Jackson. Word is Atlanta hopes to utilize Jackson as more of a pass catcher to keep him fresh, so I predict 50-60 receptions for him this year and 10-12 total TDs. Atlanta really loves to run at the goal line. Also, S-Jax isn't the injury risk you think, go back and look at how many games he's missed over the last 3 seasons and I think you'll be very surprised.
I'd go Calvin and S-Jax there and see if either Sproles or Bush could fall. If one of those don't get back to you maybe target guys like Montee Ball, DeMarco Murray or Ahmad Bradshaw for a 3rd RB.
If that isn't an option that thrills you then take both S-Jax and Bush to lock in a great RB core and see where the receivers fall. You may have to roll the dice with guys like Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe and Cecil Shorts. Which I feel won't be too bad. A WR always seems to pop up out of nowhere every year. Kenny Britt, Vincent Brown, Josh Gordon could be those guys this time.
As always it's YOUR team, draft the guys you want to watch and follow.
I would take Calvin Johnson if he was available with the 12th overall pick. He is almost on another tier for wide-recievers. With the 13th overall pick I would go with Steven Jackson or Jimmy Graham. I think Steven Jackson will see over 60 receptions, and he will get double-digit touchdowns, so I have him a bit higher then Jimmy Graham. I think Jimmy Graham will give you a valuable positional advantage at tight-end, so he is worth considering. Don't worry about Steven Jackson and health; he has only missed two games the last four seasons while Reggie Bush has missed 11 games the last four years. I can see Reggie Bush being there for your third-round pick, and I would not draft him any higher then that. I think Drew Brees is a safe pick, but I would wait on a quarterback. I would not take Bradshaw with your 3rd or 4th pick because he is still dealing with his foot injury, which tends to linger. I would look to grab White, Cruz, or Cobb if they are available with your 4th pick. To sum it up, I would take Steven Jackson, Calvin Johnson with your first two picks, target Bush or Sproles with your third round pick, and grab a WR with your 4th round pick. However, all drafts are different, so select the players that you want.
I'm having a similar problem gauging the value of Bush in a PPR (though mine's full 1.0 PPR)
I have to agree with the other guys posting ahead of me: I think, in a PPR especially, having a threat like Megatron is just too good to pass up. I would take him at 12, then follow up immediately with St. Jax at 13. Like the others, I'm expecting big things from Jackson in Atlanta this year, both as a pass catcher (Which helps him in your mostly PPR), and as a goalline guy. Turner, who was pretty much out of gas last year, ended up still fantasy relevant because of the amount of goalline carries he received. Now we get Jackson, who is a much more violent runner, and has more left in the tank. It's mouth-watering.
I really like the idea of Jimmy Graham in a PPR, but I feel that Megatron is better than he is, and I wouldn't want to draft two pass catchers at the turn like that, leaving my RBs in question. I think a solid foundation of Megatron/St. Jax would set you up for later on in the draft.
With 12th overall, you could go with Steven Jackson, (or if one of your top 10 don't get taken, then take them) as I think he will do great this year in Atlanta, and then I would take best WR available. Johnson, Green, Bryant, Marshall, Jones, all will be solid this year. You'll need at least 1 RB with those two picks otherwise your RB production compared to everyone else is way sub-par.
You could also reach for Graham at one of those two spots, as he will far outproduce any other TE's this season in my opinion, but it would be a reach. Gonzalez would be fine in the 4th round I think though. He's a proven veteran with an easier schedule this year. I'd go best RB available with 12th overall, best WR available with 13th overall, and then go TE and/or RB/WR with your 3rd and 4th round picks.
I would also consider AJ Green in that position. Green outscored a lot of the RB in fantasy last year and he hasn't even begun to top his potential. The only thing holding him back is Dalton, who I don't dislike, but isn't an elite talent by any stretch of the imagination.
In my dynasty league I took AJ Green in the first and Jimmy Graham in the 2nd. I then got Reggie Bush in the 3rd [his value has kept rising since that draft] and Darren McFadden in the 5th or 6th, can't recall exactly.
I break the mold and don't go all RB but do remember that RB doesn't have the same depth as WR. You have to weigh your risk/reward carefully. [We only have to start 1 RB each week, 2 WR, then one RB/WR/TE flex spot.]