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Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby nightfox422 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:07 am

10 team, .5 ppr, 4 pt passing TD, 6 pt rush/rec TD
Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR 1Flex, 1TE

We get to keep 3 players in the round they were drafted in the previous year. I have the 4th overall pick, and no first round keeper so keep in mind I will be able to draft one of these 4 (Peterson, Rice, Charles, Calvin)

My keeper options:

Steven Jackson - Round 2 (17 overall)
Doug Martin - Round 3 (24 overall)
Andrew Luck - Round 12
Randall Cobb - Round 16
Resard Menenhall - Round 16


Obviously Doug Martin for sure in round 3
Randall Cobb in Round 16 is a steal

I cant decide on the last keeper. Luck is good value at round 12, but what about a flyer on mendy in the last round? Or SJax, his ADP is right there, but who knows. Being that 30 players get kept, I wont be able to draft sjax in round 2 if I waited for him, but is luck or mendy the better overall value?
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Re: Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby nightfox422 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:18 am

Just to keep it in perspective, if I DONT keep Sjax in round 2, based on who I think other teams keepers will be, I am looking at the following being available

MJD
McFadden
Sproles
Ridley
Bush
Murray
Cruz
Roddy White (maybe, but doubtful)
Aaron Rodgers if no one reaches
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Re: Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby HybridTheory » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:51 am

Being able to start Martin and SJax would give you a heads up on that position and could allow you to select either a top QB or another WR to pair with Cobb.

On the other hand, that's great value for Luck, especially if you can grab AP or Rice.

If it was me, I'd probably keep SJax, but its very close.
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Re: Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby duffoholic » Fri Jun 21, 2013 1:02 pm

I like Mendenhall this year but think it s too big a chance since you are giving up SJax for him. And just to clarify, with 30 players off the board, AND a full round of picks finished you think you will still be able to get guys like Ridley, DMC and Cruz plus have a crack at Rice, Charles or Calvin with your first pick?

If you can get Charles or Rice with your first pick and already have Martin, I'm a little more okay with throwing SJax back into the mix and keeping Mendy with a 16th as a flier. I doubt you are going to be getting anything better than SJax with your 2nd rounder but it is possible you could land him. If you want to target Calvin, then I'd definitely hang on to SJax so your first three rounds would be would be Calvin, Sjax, Martin giving you two first round picks and a second in the first three rounds. It isn't amazing value but not the worst thing in the world... Keeping the other way your first three rounds would most likely looks like Charles/Rice, Cruz, Martin with Mendy as your 16th. This again, isn't crazy value since Cruz is probably 3-4th round material anyway...

Looking at it this way, it seems that you are getting the most out of your roster keeping Sjax and hoping to grab Calvin with your first pick but if you can't grab him, taking one of the other RB's would be pretty awesome since you have a flex. Having a base of Martin, Charles and Sjax would be pretty awesome.

I don't think there is any value keeping Luck at 12 as I think that is about where he should wind up in a 10 man league anyway, plus there are easily 9 QB's I'd rather have this season. I don't know what you expect for QB keepers but if you think Rodgers is back then I imagine there is still some talent out there. Good luck!
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Re: Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby T-Lo » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:48 pm

I'd let go of Steven Jackson. He may do great, but for a long term keeper league, you can get a younger player who offers more value. Tough choice though.
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Re: Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby nightfox422 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:06 pm

We can only keep guys for 1 year, cant keep them 2 years in a row.

That is how I can guess who will be available in round 2 because I know who can/cant be kept.
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Re: Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby Zbetty » Sun Jun 23, 2013 4:40 pm

I would keep SJax. Starting with Martin, Jax, and one of the four you mentioned gives you a sick start to your team. That's two 1st and an early 2nd rounder talent
10 Team PPR predraft
QB- Aaron Rodgers
RB- CJ Spiller, Marshawn Lynch
WR- Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree
TE- Jimmy Graham
LB- James Laurinaitis
DL- Corey Liuget
DB- Harrison Smith
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Re: Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby LSUby50 » Tue Jun 25, 2013 11:24 am

Dont keep SJax at his ADP, thats not giving you any added value. You can get him (or somebody equal) with your 2nd pick. Or better yet, get a top shelf RB with your #1 and a top WR/QB in the 2nd.

Definitely keep Martin and definitely go with Cobb in the 16th , thats a steal because with the earlier picks he's going to probably be your 3rd (or 4th ) best WR.

So between Luck and Mendenhall is a tossup. I think id go mendenhall. He's a sleeper and 16th could be a steal for you if he becomes your flex starter and has a solid year, and if he busts it doesnt cost you anything anyway. Luck in the 12th is not bad, but do you want him as your starter ?(you said Rogers could drop to 2nd, maybe Brees will if not?) id hope to get one of those with my 2nd pick and then Luck would be just a good QB2 in the 12th which is fine but doesnt help your starting lineup much. Id rather a potential steal with mendenhall...Ive heard god things about him so far this year.
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Re: Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby k_dubya » Sun Jul 14, 2013 11:05 pm

martin, luck and cobb are the best value to loss options.

viewtopic.php?t=534473
10 team 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF
P Manning, RG3
A Foster, CJ Spiller, B Tate, Le'Veon Bell,
D Thomas, J Nelson, M Wallace, DeAndre Hopkins, Vincent Brown, Marlon Brown
J Thomas, M Bennett
Prater
Ravens
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Re: Need Keeper thoughts, tuff choices

Postby mycuccismells » Fri Jul 19, 2013 10:43 am

nightfox422 wrote:We can only keep guys for 1 year, cant keep them 2 years in a row.


This is crucial information that completely changes the answer to this question. I was going to say Luck for his long term keeper value, but as a one year keeper i dont like him as a keeper in any round. In a 10 team league you can easily get a comparable QB in a late round, wait until round 9/10 and get someone like Romo if you have to and you will get similar production to Luck.

With that i would keep SJax as my third keeper. His ADP will be around 11-14 so in a straight up redraft you are still getting value, but with a handful of those top 10 guys being kept you are getting even better value. Plus with a starting group of Martin, SJax and Cobb you have your RB1/2 and a fringe WR1/2 to go with it. Dont even consider Mendy, its great value but hes going to be a flex player at best

AP will be gone by the 4th so i would try and get Charles or McCoy if it were me, pairing either of them with your RB core will be huge. You will have 2 solid RB1s and then SJax as your flex which is beyond solid. Round 2 try and find a WR1 to pair with Cobb and then on the turn in round 3 come back and get your backup RB.
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