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Custom Auction Value Forumula

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Custom Auction Value Forumula

Postby Mcmatto » Wed Aug 07, 2013 12:43 pm

Playing in a 16 team AUction Draft Keeper league. trying to create Auction Values based off of projections that I am using and want to double check my math / formula.
(We will use QB has an example)
1) Calculate projected Fantasy points based on league scoring.
2) Then I calculate Value over Replacement #. I take the player who is the average replacement. For QB in this league (16 teams) I took the 24th ranked QB (1.5x Starting QBs in league). This is meant to be a guy I can pick up off waivers to "Replace" and thus creates the Value of said player. Thus in my rankings currently Carson Palmer is ranked 24th w 260 projected Fantasy points.
3) Value Over Replacement = Projected Fantasy Points - Carson Palmers Projected Fantasy Points (I.E. Drew Brees 427 - 260 = 167. or Luck - 356- 260 = 96).
4) After doing this for all positions I add up the Value over Replacement of ALL players (Anyone w negative value goes to 0 since they wont be drafted. (In my projections this number was 13765)
5) Calculate the total available auction $s. My league this was 2896. 3200 - 16*19($1 min for each roster spot is auto spent)
6) next take Total Auction $ / Total Value Over Replacement = 2896/13765 = Price / Value point = .21
7) Multiply each players Value over Replacement # by .21 to gain Auction Value.

projected 427 total Fantasy Points. Carson Palmer the 24th ranked QB projected 260 points. Value over Replacement = 167. 167 x .21 = $35.

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Re: Custom Auction Value Forumula

Postby flytrap » Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:52 pm

For QB it's fine to calculate a player's value over a waiver wire replacement, since you may only roster one, but for other positions, I would suggest figuring out how many starting players will play that position, and calculate the difference between the player who's value you're trying to access, and the worst starting player at that position. Generally you'll replace an injured starting RB or WR with a player on your bench. Here are the steps I took:

1. Calculated each player's point value based on the league's scoring system.
2. Figured out the worst starter at each position. For instance, my league plays 2 rbs and a flex, so roughly 25 rbs will be starting. We play 3 wrs, so roughly 35 wrs will be starting. I didn't differentiate between flex rbs and flex wrs because I found that the #35 wr will be about the same production as the #25 rb.
3. Take each player's point total, and subtract the point total of the worst starter. In my league, Adrian Peterson was #1 while Ryan Matthews was #25.
4. Take an average auction price for the top player at a position, and the worst starter. AP has an average auction of about $59, while Ryan Matthews is about $11. Then divide the difference in point totals by the difference in cost. That will be how many points you should expect for each $1 spent. The number will be around 2.6.
5. Repeat step 4, but with WRs and QBs. my "points per dollar spent" for WRs was about 3, and it was about 2.8 for QBs. I averaged out these figures and used the number 2.78 as the number of points I could expect over a replacement for each $1 spent, and used that value for each position.
6. Take the point difference between the first player, and the worst player, and divide by 2.78 (or whatever number you came up with). This will tell you how much more that player is worth in auction compared to the worst player.

If you use an amount different than the standard $200, then just divide x by 200 and then multiply that number by the players value in a $200 league.
There might be a theoretical way to calculate each player's auction value without needing baseline values to start, but I didn't know how. I figured by starting with baselines and averaging out the value of a dollar in points, it would be fairly close. One thing to note is that if you have more than the normal roster spots, as my league does, (we play an extra receiver) then you need to devalue each player somewhat since you need to save some money for that last roster spot.
The conclusion I came to in my league was that receivers were undervalued and rbs overvalued, due to needing an extra wr in the lineup, and the fact that we got .5ppr.
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