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WR/TE keeper question - WHIR

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WR/TE keeper question - WHIR

Postby comeonyouvikes » Sun Aug 11, 2013 1:15 am

Hey guys,

First off, let me apologize for the lengthy post!

I am in a twelve man PPR keeper league: 1 QB (4 pts passingTD), 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 WR/TE flex, and 1 TE. We can keep up to four players- 3 offensive players and 1IDP. Additionally, we can only keep one player at a specific position, so we can only keep 1 RB, 1 QB and 1 WR - as opposed to keeping 2 RBS and 1 QB. Our keeper rules determine draft value from their previous draft, then move up one round in value after the second time you keep him. For example:

If you draft a player in the 4th round this year (2013 draft), that player's draft value will be a 4th round draft pick in the 2014 draft. However, that player's draft position in the 2015 draft will increase to a 3rd round pick. In the 2016 draft, that player's draft position will increase once again, costing you a 2nd round pick, etc. In effect, there is a one year "grace period" after you acquire a player before their draft value starts increasing.

We also have a trade window open for the next two weeks before we release our rosters to help facilitate draft pick trading,finding other keepers from other teams, and overall fun league activity before the season starts.

Okay, so with all of that out of the way, here is what I'm looking at:

I have the third pick in the draft and we do not snake.

Relevant players currently on my roster:

Andrew Luck (draft value= 8th round)
Lesean McCoy (draft value= 1st round)
Adrian Peterson (draft value= 2nd round)
Wes Welker (draft value= 3rd round)
Desean Jackson (draft value= 5th round)
Reggie Wayne (draft value= 8th round)
Kyle Rudolph (draft value= 12th round)
Harrison Smith (my IDP(draft value= 26th round))

My keepers that I am keeping for sure:
Adrian Peterson (draft value= 2nd round)
Andrew Luck (draft value= 8th round)
Harrison Smith (my IDP(draft value= 26th round))

I currently have Lesean McCoy on the trading block, looking for a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick (might edit that to only be looking for a 1st or 2nd). I am hoping someone bites on this, as I am going to be losing him no matter what.

That leaves me one keeper to spend on a WR or TE.
I'm not high on Desean Jackson. I have questions about both Wayne and Welker - both are getting up there in age. As far as Wayne goes, I'm not thrilled about keeping a QB and WR playing for the same team (risk/reward issue there). As far as Welker goes, he and Manning might go crazy in Denver, but I don't foresee all the targets he consistently got in New England- then again, he might. I also like Rudolph in the 12th round, I think he is going to be a great TE and red zone target for a few years to come, and if I commit to him, I'll be able to keep him cheaply for a while.

If I go WR, I am torn between Welker in the 3rd round and Wayne in the 8th round- might be leaning a bit towards Wayne.
That being said, I have half a mind to not keep any WRs and go with Rudolph in the 12th. That would allow me to go after a RB in round 1 and then target WRs in rounds 3, 4, and 5.

Again, sorry for the long post and I appreciate anyone's thoughts.

Thanks!
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Re: WR/TE keeper question - WHIR

Postby Gibbs Baby!!! » Sun Aug 11, 2013 2:30 pm

Looking this over, I'd say your best value would be Rudolph - as you say, you can keep him cheaply for a number of years.
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Re: WR/TE keeper question - WHIR

Postby duffoholic » Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:09 pm

Yeah, I agree. Do you know what sort of free agents will be around? Keeping McCoy might not be the worst thing in the world if most of the top 10 RBs are gone. Off the top of my head I would assume Spiller, Martin, TRich, Morris, and maybe Foster would still be keepers leaving Rice, maybe Charles, and Forte as guys who will be on the board (just a total shot in the dark here...). With the third pick, I doubt any of them fall to you unless Megatron is there too, in which case one of them might but I think keeping McCoy is safer. Sure, it sucks as you don't have a tonne of value here but, let's face it, there isn't a tonne of value on your roster. At least this way you are playing for the win THIS year and hopefully you can hit it out of the park on a couple late round picks this year to keep along side AP in the first next year.

Unless you have a better guess at who is available to you in that first round, or can make the trade go through for McCoy, I think he is the guy you want to keep.
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Re: WR/TE keeper question - WHIR

Postby blueman » Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:17 pm

Would agree with you and say that out of your options Rudolph is your best option to keep.

Take a look at mine: viewtopic.php?t=535218
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Re: WR/TE keeper question - WHIR

Postby comeonyouvikes » Sat Aug 17, 2013 9:09 pm

Okay, some new information to share!

I traded LeSean McCoy for a second round pick (middle pick in that round (6th or 7th spot).

So keeping AD, Andrew Luck, and Kyle Rudolph, I have the third pick in every round (plus two picks in the second), apart from picks in the 8th (Luck) and the 12th (Rudolph).

Yesterday, another owner placed Brandon Marshall on the trading block, asking for a third round pick.

Does it make sense for me to go with Marshall with my third round pick?

This is what I anticipate being kept at RB/QB/WR:

RBs kept:

AD (2nd - Me)
Arian Foster (3rd)
Ray Rice (3rd)
Jamaal Charles (4th)
CJ Spiller (16)
Doug Martin (8)
Darren McFadden (16)
Bush/Gore? (3/18)
Lynch/Morris? (2/4)

QBs kept:
Rodgers (1)
Brees (1)
Manning (1)
Brady (1)
Luck? (8 Me)
Newton (20)
Ryan (2)

WRs kept:
Cobb (21)
Megatron (1)
Bowe (5)
Jones? (4)

I would need to drop either Luck or Rudolph to keep Marshall. So the question is, given that I have three picks in the first two rounds (a draft pick in round one, AD in the second round, and then another draft pick in round two) where is the best value?

Marshall in the third?
Luck in the 8th?
Rudolph in the 12th?

So my options are:
1st round pick, AD, 2nd round pick, 3rd-7th pick, Luck in the 8th, picks 9-11, Rudolph in the 12th, the rest of my picks.

1st round pick, AD, 2nd round pick, Brandon Marshall in the 3rd, 4th-7th pick, Luck in the 8th, picks 9-the rest of my picks.

1st round pick, AD, 2nd round pick, Brandon Marshall in the 3rd, 4th-11th pick, Rudolph in the 12th, the rest of my picks.

Any thoughts? I'm very tempted to make the Marshall trade, given that I picked up another second round pick.

Thanks!
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Re: WR/TE keeper question - WHIR

Postby comeonyouvikes » Sat Aug 17, 2013 9:45 pm

I think I am liking the third option. QB seems pretty deep, given that all the top tier guys are already pretty much gone. Maybe go RB (1), AD (2/keeper), WR (2), Marshall (3), WR/QB (4)?

I'm starting to talk myself into this...
Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, RG3, Romo, Luck, Roethlisberger, et al. should all be available.
Last edited by comeonyouvikes on Sat Aug 17, 2013 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WR/TE keeper question - WHIR

Postby spread eagles » Sat Aug 17, 2013 9:48 pm

So the guy trading Marshall wants your 3rd rd. pick leaving you with no 3rd rd. pick..., wouldn't you need a 3rd pick to protect Marshall?
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Re: WR/TE keeper question - WHIR

Postby comeonyouvikes » Sat Aug 17, 2013 9:55 pm

Nope, Marshall would effectively be my third round pick. By trading the pick, I would lose my third round pick for ownership of Marshall and he would acquire my third round pick.

Also, it looks like I can get Julio Jones for that same third round pick. If I go through with a trade, would you take Jones or Marshall?
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