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Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

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Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby Shark1225 » Mon Aug 12, 2013 5:56 pm

We need to name keepers by Aug 20 and so far I have Cruz for a 17th and Graham for a 3rd. I would prefer to keep a RB but if Pead or Hillman don't win the job I may by stuck keeping Justin Blackmon and the drafting RB in rounds 1, 2, and 4 or 5. All of the above mentioned can be had for 7th or lower.

I draft 3rd on Aug 27 but keepers are due in a week. To make matters worse Peterson and Foster and Calvin are all available, meaning Peterson goes 1 and Foster goes 2 and that leaves me Calvin or Demarco Murray or Trent Richardson likely. McCoy and Rice likely kept and Doug Martin too.

I need some serious help here, WHIR.
QB: BREES, Cutler
RB: TURNER, MCGAHEE, R. JENNINGS, Leshoure, D. Williams, Hillman, Hunter, Dwyer
WR: CRUZ, GARCON, Amendola, Edwards, D. Baldwin
TE: GRAHAM
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Re: Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby bradleyk » Mon Aug 12, 2013 6:16 pm

I think Leshoure is a clear cut backup. He might get goal line work, but he won't be getting the most touchdowns. I also think there won't be 1 guy in St Louis. If they dial up 100 rushes (obviously, just using a round number for the sake of math) then I see Pead getting about 40, Richardson getting about 30, Stacy getting about 25, and Gannaway getting about 3, and Austin getting about 2.

This leaves, for me personally, Hillman or Blackmon. The thing about Hillman and Blackmon is that Hillman is probably going to go before Blackmon, so I'd rather have Hillman and draft Blackmon in the 15th rather than keep Blackmon and risk having to reach into the 8th if Hillman is named the starter.

So I go Hillman.
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Re: Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby mycuccismells » Tue Aug 13, 2013 12:22 pm

For this year alone I would keep Hillman, he has a fighters chance of being a top 25 RB but at the very worst should be a decent flex option. Blackmon will be suspended to start the year and then after that he will likely be the #2 receiver on a team with a bad QB. Neither of them are great options for this year so when splitting hairs i rather go with the RB.
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Re: Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby murda42 » Tue Aug 13, 2013 12:43 pm

Based on the group, Hillman wins by default. Blackmon is just about a huge bust already. He has a terrible attitude and besides 1 game last year was just plain terrible. The rest of the group is back ups and barring injury wont see enough touches to be relevant.
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Re: Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby mycuccismells » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:36 pm

I would be a little hesitant to write him off as a huge bust after his rookie year. In his first 8 games he had 23 catches for 225 yards and 1 touchdown, in his final 8 games he had 41 catches for 640 yards and 5 touchdowns. Yes he did have that one monster game in the middle of those last 8 games but if you exclude that and just look at his last 4 games he had 25 catches for 308 yards and 2 TDs which was more than he did in his first 8 games.

2 years ago everyone was saying how big of a bust Dez Bryant was going to be because of his bad attitude and lack of on field success. He missed some time in his rookie year but was still only on pace for 750 yards. He was only a 50 yard receiver most weeks and got about 60% of his production in a 4 game stretch. His second year he cleaned up a bit (still had off field behavior questions) and became a little more consistent and was right around the 70 yard mark every game. Last year he started a bit slow as well then hit his third year stride and took off, now he is a top 5 WR.

Im not saying that Blackmon will follow that same arc but I think its just as likely that he gets it together than he completely busts. Lots of WRs (read divas) that are over hyped coming out of college get big heads and have personality issues coming into the league. Some of them never get over it and some of them get some sort of a reality check and turn out to be special receivers. Im in the camp that believes that this suspension might be the reality check that Blackmon needs to get on track this year and have a breakout year next year. If im thinking long term i think the upside is higher with Blackmon for the future than it is with Hillman
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Re: Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby duffoholic » Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:30 pm

I think Blackmon might be the guy to keep here. I don't see Hillman having a lot of long term value, and I held on to him ALL year last year. I think Pead is going to be the last of the three names in STL this year. If you get to keep Blackmon for anything lower than a 10th, he could wind up being a solid WR3 for you with a pretty solid keeper longevity if he grows up a little bit and Gabbert learns how to play in the NFL... sigh.

Also, dare to dream my friend... Maybe Calvin goes 2... There is a lot of craziness happening these days.
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Re: Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby Shark1225 » Tue Aug 13, 2013 6:24 pm

Forgot to add another WR option, Malcolm Floyd. He is pretty solid and dependable. Could be a WR2 if necessary.

But I think currently Hillman has the lead for this keeper spot. I can draft Floyd or Blackmon pretty close to their spots but even if Hillman starts the year as a backup I don't think I can draft him that low.

I think it is way too soon to give up on Blackmon yet also but he does have Gabbert throwing to him and a run first team. The talent is there, I give him a 50% chance to make it yet.
QB: BREES, Cutler
RB: TURNER, MCGAHEE, R. JENNINGS, Leshoure, D. Williams, Hillman, Hunter, Dwyer
WR: CRUZ, GARCON, Amendola, Edwards, D. Baldwin
TE: GRAHAM
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Re: Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby Shark1225 » Sat Aug 17, 2013 8:50 am

Well, I penciled in Hillman for a 10th but have until Tuesday to change. It came down to him and Pead and I think Pead is still behind Richardson.

One other development, I found I select 4th, not third in the draft that is after preseason game 3. So that makes it even more likely that ADP, Foster and Calvin will be gone. If these players are available who would you select in a .5 PPR league, Murray, Charles, or Bush. I am really hoping that in round 2 I can still get DMC or Stephen Jackson.

Picking fourth also brings Drew Brees back into play. I had him last year and he was money. Even better he was consistant, you could bank on 300 yards and 2-3 TD's a week from him. That is until the FFL games meant something, he had a few rough matchups at the wrong time for hence the 4th pick.
QB: BREES, Cutler
RB: TURNER, MCGAHEE, R. JENNINGS, Leshoure, D. Williams, Hillman, Hunter, Dwyer
WR: CRUZ, GARCON, Amendola, Edwards, D. Baldwin
TE: GRAHAM
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Re: Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby Delhomme17 » Sat Aug 17, 2013 3:06 pm

Another vote here for Hillman. He's getting first-team reps right now, and I think he'll be a solid flex guy this year even if Ball wins the job. Leshoure is clearly a backup in Detroit to Bush, and the buzz is that he's even falling behind Joique Bell. I don't think he's even in the conversation. Pead is a high-upside guy, but I think he'll end up behind Richardson. Blackmon can be had late enough that I wouldn't worry about keeping him.
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Re: Keep Pead, Hillman or Leshoure, or Blackmon

Postby duffoholic » Sat Aug 17, 2013 3:26 pm

Delhomme17 wrote:Another vote here for Hillman. He's getting first-team reps right now, and I think he'll be a solid flex guy this year even if Ball wins the job. Leshoure is clearly a backup in Detroit to Bush, and the buzz is that he's even falling behind Joique Bell. I don't think he's even in the conversation. Pead is a high-upside guy, but I think he'll end up behind Richardson. Blackmon can be had late enough that I wouldn't worry about keeping him.


I just don't see Hillman being a decent play at all this year. Peyton likes him because he knows how to block but I think he ends up being a passing down back who comes in to block and occasionally catches out of the back field but rarely puts up more than 50 yards rushing and routinely has less than 30. He's just too small a back to run in the middle and isn't explosive enough to take the outside.
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