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Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby BrewersFanJP » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:07 am

Hi,

I have to choose my keepers for my league, and I've got a tough choice this year.

First of all, here is how our keepers work. We can keep up to 3 players, and we have to use draft picks based on where the player was picked last season. There are four tiers: 3rd round, 6th round, 10th round, and 14th round. To be assigned to a tier, a player must have been drafted in or after that round. If the player was a keeper the previous year, he has to be kept with the next tier up. So, 1st round picks, 2nd round picks, and 3rd round keepers from last year can't be kept. Otherwise, it's wide open for choices.

Here are the players worth considering for keepers, and what pick I would have to use to keep them.

Matt Ryan (3rd)
Dwayne Bowe (3rd)
Demaryius Thomas (6th)
Stevan Ridley (6th)
Marshawn Lynch (6th)
Andrew Luck (14th)
Kyle Rudolph (14th)
Mike Williams (14th)

In my mind, Luck is an easy choice here. He may not end up being the starting QB for my team, but for that value in round 14, he's worth keeping.

That leaves me with two more choices. To me, it has to be two of the three players at the 6th round tier (Thomas, Ridley, Lynch). That leaves me with two questions:

- Which two do I pick?
- Which draft pick do I use on each one? (Can't use a 6th round on both, but I can use a 6th round on one and a 3rd round on the other. Big point here is whichever one I keep with the 3rd round pick can't be kept next year, while the one kept with the 6th round pick can be kept with a 3rd round pick next year.)

If it makes a difference, players can be traded now, so I could trade whichever of those three I don't keep and try to get a mid-round draft pick out of it.

Here are the league settings:

10 teams
Start QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, TE, W/R/T, K, DEF, 2 IDP
9 bench, 1 IR
Passing: 4 pt TD, 1 pt/25 yd, -2 pt INT, -.5 pt Sack, bonus points for reaching yardage totals
Rushing: 6 pt TD, 1 pt/10 yd, bonus points for reaching yardage totals
Receiving: 6 pt TDs, 1 pt/15 yd, 1 PPR, bonus points for reaching yardage totals
Return: 6 pt TDs, 1 pt/50 yd
Misc: -2 pt fumbles, 2 pt 2-point conversions, -1 for throwing a pick six, 1 pt for 40 yard passing/rushing TD

(Leaving the kicker and defense scoring out since it's not relevant.)
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby jeffc12 » Tue Aug 13, 2013 7:24 am

I would take Thomas/ Lynch out of those 3. Honestly I would think hard about keeping Ridley and not Luck. It's a 6th rd pick - that's still a steal for him. I guess it comes down to how many RB's are kept which I guess in this system all the top RB's would be thrown back in - in that case I'd keep Luck but if most will be kept I would take Ridley.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby hitnrun0264 » Tue Aug 13, 2013 8:08 am

Keep Ridley, Lynch and Luck.

They are all steals in those rounds I think Ridley is a top 10 back this year. WR is crazy deep. Thomas is great but I think you can get a comparable WR there, where the drop off after Ridley is drastic.

Where in the draft are you picking and do you know who will be there. A lot of times you can predict who will be kept and who will fall to you.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby murphysxm » Tue Aug 13, 2013 8:24 am

throw Luck back and grab all 3 6th rounders. QB is deep enough I'd pass on Luck's value and grab the studs in 6.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby BrewersFanJP » Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:39 am

I think there's some confusion on my original post, so let me clarify it.

I can only keep 1 player at each of those tiers. I can't keep more than that. If I could, the decision would be easy (Lynch, Ridley, and Thomas). However, since I can't keep more than 1 player at each tier, I have to choose two of them from that group, one to keep with a 6th round pick and one to keep with a 3rd round pick. That's where the other question comes in, after I choose the two, which pick do I use on which player. I can use a higher tier pick if I want to keep someone that could be kept with a lower tier pick. I want to use the 6th round pick on the player that I think will be worth keeping with a 3rd round pick next year, and the 3rd round pick on a player that will probably decline next year.

My plan is to offer up whichever player I decide not to keep as trade bait, see if I can get a decent draft pick out of it. If I trade the player, someone else can keep that player at the 6th round if they want to.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby BrewersFanJP » Tue Aug 13, 2013 11:43 am

Also, to answer the other questions: I'm picking 4th this year.

I definitely think Ridley with the 6th round pick is the best choice. So, the other question is to go with either Thomas or Lynch with a 3rd round pick. If this was a non-PPR, it's Lynch without a question. Only the fact that it's a PPR is keeping Thomas in the discussion. I could throw Lynch back and draft him anyway in the first round, but there's going to be better RB options there as well. I also like the possibility of trading whichever guy I don't keep, especially if I get a good draft pick out of it. (Which brings up another question, if I try to trade, what round of draft pick should I aim for?)

For the first three picks before me at #4, the only two I can say for sure will be picked are Adrian Peterson and Aaron Rodgers. Obviously, AP is too big of a talent to slip, and our league features a lot of QB loving people from Wisconsin, so no way Rodgers lasts beyond the top 3 picks.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby duffoholic » Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:45 pm

Luck is a for sure. Done and done. I even think you can rely on him as your starter, maybe taking a guy like Rivers or Freeman really late in the draft as a backup.

As for the other three...really it would boil down to who would get you the most value from trading. If you can't get a deal done, I think Ridley is the guy you let go of here; NE has so much turn around year to year since they have an incredible system that breeds success at key positions (look at what Cassel did there) so Ridley might not be around next year. However, if you could get a great pick from trading Lynch and DO wind up keeping Ridley, I would throw him in the round 3 slot for the reasons above. Without a trade though I would probably keep Lynch in the 6th and Ridley in the 3rd. My reason being that DT will never be a first round pick simply because he is a WR so there is very little value to be gained keeping him this year and Lynch should still be a keeper worthy of a first round pick next year so the third will be a steal. Ridley in the third is still a deal as he probably go late to mid-second in a 10 teamer.
So...
Luck, 14th
Lynch, 6th
Ridley, 3rd

would be my picks leaving you open to grab another RB in the first and WR's 2nd and 4th.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby BrewersFanJP » Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:10 pm

I was thinking Lynch and Ridley as well, though reversed in rounds. My concern with Lynch is that he's been taking a beating for several years, so I see Ridley as a guy that's more likely for me to keep next year.

In the interim, I did get a trade offer. The offer I got was a 4th round (40th overall) pick for Lynch. Is that enough to trade him away? Or should I ask for more? A 4th round pick was right around what I was thinking. The guy making the trade offer has the #1 pick this year, so his picks would be clustered together.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby duffoholic » Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:20 pm

So this is the worst 4th round pick possible? That kinda sucks... Maybe try and get him to swap 5th's with you as well? Just give it a shot. Where do you pick?
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers

Postby BrewersFanJP » Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:31 pm

I pick 4th, so my 5th round pick would be #44. I'd be trading up 3 spots to #41 if I swapped 5th round picks.
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