I'm going over the waiver wire in my 10 team PPR league and trying to maximize my bench. Jacoby Jones was my last pick in the our 10 team league, mainly because we get 1 point for 15 return yards and 6 points for a return TD. Jones was one of the best return men in the business last year. Now Tom Brady seems to be building a wonderful connection after 3 preseason games with the rookie Kenbrell Thompkins. Who knows, if this guy is a sleeper and my get the same numbers that Lloyd had last year with New England.
Mike Williams and Garcon are my other bench Wr's and my RB's are all set.
Should I take a chance on the kid?
Last edited by FF For Life on Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
MY TEAM: 10 team 4 keeper PPR league: (Starters in bold) QB:Brees,Rivers RB: A.Peterson. Sproles, Murray (flex), DeAngelo Williams WR: Julio Jones, Cruz,Garcon, Jeffrey, Douglas, ROyal TE: Witten K: Tucker DEF:Carolina
What does the rest of your roster look like? PPR? If you have a stable roster, without a lot of gamble, go with Tompkins. If you already have several high/risk high/reward guys, stick with Jones. LLoyd last year looked great with Brady in preseason, then was a let down in the regular season. The X spot in the Patriots offense hasn't produced a ton during Brady's time at QB without Moss. That said, when Brady had Moss in the X they made history and set records. So Tompkins is a risk/reward pick.
Go with Thompkins. This is not a matter of risk/reward. This is a matter of consistency vs. variance.
I know playing a rookie receiver is scary, but I think Jones is almost on the same level as Thompkins re: being "unproven" in the eyes of fantasy owners. He may put up gaudy return numbers, but that's not a stat category I'd want to rely on for wins. With a worse QB and the return game being such a huge part of his output, Jones' week-to-week numbers will vary pretty wildly IMO. He may have some huge games, but I'd be willing to bet they'll be due to a kickoff or punt return TD rather than putting up a 8/140/2 line. Thompkins probably won't be a stud, but in the Pats offense with Brady throwing him the ball, he's probably a good bet for 4+ catches a week. Jones set career highs in 2010 with 51 catches for 562 yards, and that was with Andre Johnson on the other side of the field. Torrey Smith is good, but Andre Johnson he ain't. The notion that the "X" spot hasn't produced in New England since Moss was in town is, IMO, bogus. Brandon Lloyd hauled in 74 balls for 911 yards last season--pretty good for a "let down", and a huge improvement over Jones' best numbers.
IMO, Thompkins, simply put, has a much higher potential as a receiver. Flash forward to your title game week, and I think there's a massively higher chance you say "damn, I wish I'd picked up Thompkins" than "damn, I wish I'd picked up Jones". Just my 2 cents.