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Best Possible Draft Order?

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Best Possible Draft Order?

Postby strife » Wed Dec 11, 2002 2:44 pm

I did horrible on my draft this year, but yet ended up #1 in my league.

I play in a 12-team league where you must draft 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 2 K and 2 Def. There are 14 rounds.

This year my draft went: WR, QB, RB, Def, K, TE, RB, WR, QB, RB, WR, TE, K, Def.

Next yeat I plan on drafting like this: RB, QB, RB, WR, WR, RB, WR, Def, TE, K, TE, K, DEF.

What do you guys think?
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Postby Homeless » Wed Dec 11, 2002 2:58 pm

Lots of people use the stud RB theory, i.e. you draft two decent RB's with your first two picks. Simply put there are too few good RB's, so if you can get two of them, your in good shape. this is a decent rookie strategy.

However, you really need to draft in relation to what everyone else is doing, you really shouldnt go into a draft with a preset picking order. if there is an early run on RB's and your late in the picking order then you may want to grab a stud QB or WR.

Going into a draft with a set patten of picks can put undue pressure on yourself.

Scan the sheets and take the best player available to you at the time.
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Postby strife » Wed Dec 11, 2002 3:05 pm

You see, I play in an automated draft league. You rank your players and you then set rounds in which a position is picked. This is why I am asking for the opinion of other fantasy footballers.
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Postby Arlo » Wed Dec 11, 2002 4:26 pm

Do you know the order in which the teams pick before choosing positions? I think I'd rank the positions very differently picking late than if I held the first pick...
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Postby joester » Wed Dec 11, 2002 8:27 pm

This year i used the RB (Alexander), WR ( Owens), RB (George), WR(Moulds), QB (Bledsoe), RB Portis, WR Coles, TE Mcmichael, DEF Denver and so on. i like to take a QB late and get depth. thats just me.
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Postby Guttpuppy » Wed Dec 11, 2002 9:03 pm

I hate automated drafts,this sounds like an NFL.com team.Can't you change it to live draft next year?
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Postby dalej » Thu Dec 12, 2002 11:33 am

This is an interesting dilemma. Clearly, in most drafts, your success depends in part on your homework and in part on luck (who would have predicted Priest and Gannon would have the years they had. To look at this question more closely, I set up some mock drafts using the year to date scoring in our league and 10 teams. I then calculated the total points of the best QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, K, D, and TE for each team. The results may change depending on your league scoring. Here's what I found.

If everyone used your system from last year, the person with the #1 pick would have 999 points so far, #2 would have 933. The points decline until #10 who would have 910. In other words, you would want to be at the top of the draft.

If everyone used your new system, you get a different result. The #1 pick would total second most points at 931. #10 would have the most at 978, but everyone would be more equal. However, it would be better to be toward the end of the draft with this model.

I also did a combination of these two approaches. In particular, suppose the first five picks used the old approach and the last five used the new. The bottom five pickers would dominate and #6 would have the best team.

Alternatives: One alternative would be to fill your starters with the best pick available, then after all starters are filled, pick the rest of the team. Under this scenario, the second pick and last pick get the best teams, but there is very little difference between any of the ten teams.

Finally, you could just take the best player available. This would make some sense because if the player is a backup on your team, he can't be a starter on another. Under this case, the number 2 pick does the best followed by number 1. Five does the worst followed by number 10.

In the end, though, the initial draft numbers are fairly even, though draft positions 3,4,7,8,9 appear to be the worst. It would seem that, in the end, what will win you a championship is who you pick to start and the trades you are able to make during the year.
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