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Drafting strageties

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Postby V-unit » Mon Dec 29, 2003 9:35 pm

My stratagy going into this year was just to go with my gutt instinct for my #2's.I Evaluated each position by their Coach,Schedule and Age.I took J. Lewis as my third pick over the likes of S.Davis,C Dillion,T.Candiate and W.Green (Both very high sleepers in many books etc),C.Garner,George and Martin.While my friends were laughing at my pick i had my reasons as to why I passed up all the RBs i metioned for J.Lewis.Some of the players were inconcstant(Dillion,Garner),Older(George,Martin,S.Davis) and unproven (Canidate,W.Green).So then i went with coaching stratgies and B.Billicks loves to run the ball in Baltimore with that great O. line and J.Lewis would be running that show.I took a gamble knowing that he was completely healed from his injury which occured in preason of last year to to beganing of this year unlike E.James who tried to come back early and didnt produce like his old self.In the end it was a gamble and luck that got me my first Championship.Im not saying that if you do this kinda of math your garanteed to draft great players but it will help.You just never know when an injury may occure and ruin your chances.
I belive you need a dominant QB to win to go along with 2 great RBs.WR are so streaky that I dont think they are worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick execpt for Moss Holt Owens and Harrison.I would rather have a C-Pepp or Manning to go along with Chambers and S. Moss(WWwork) instead of B.Johnson and Holt.
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Mon Dec 29, 2003 10:56 pm

ethis wrote:
Txagy1 wrote:you could've had A. Green in the 4th round?? Is there anymore room left in your league for next year?

Ahman in the 4th? Well... Ahman fell to the 7th round in my league. I guess everyone (including myself) forgot about him. Eddie George, Charlie Garner, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, etc were all picked ahead of him. Ahman won't fall that far next year. I guarantee it. ;-D
Back to this, there were only 3 people in my league who had ever plaved FF before and only 2 of them really cared. There were some really terrible teams. All of us were newbies and most of them had no preparation at all. We are expanding but it is a private league among people who all know each other so I don't think there is an opening.
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Postby Free Bagel » Mon Dec 29, 2003 11:08 pm

VHawk15 wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
VHawk15 wrote:I'd much rather take a top D or K, such as NE and Vandy, than take some back-up that has a very slim chance of starting. Most people don't realize that Vandy scored more fantasy points than Ricky Williams.

The problem with this is that D's and Kickers change soooooooo much from year to year (much more than any other position) that you don't KNOW who a top D/K are.

For instance, the first two kickers taken in many leagues this year where Feely and Akers (top scorers last year). By week 5, you could've gotten either of them off waivers.

Same deal for defense, Tampa was taken VERY early in many leagues and only produced decently this year, and Philly/Pitt were taken near the top of the defense line as well, and both were on waivers by week 5 or so.

But even if you picked Akers and were dissapointed, he still scored more fantasy points than say...LaBrandon Toefield. It's also less likely that a D like New England or Baltimore and a K like Vanderjagt or Wilkins will be a bust.

But you wouldn't have bothered to keep Akers when half the guys on the WW were putting up more points, so they both would've netted you the same 0 points.

The upside on the other hand, is much bigger for a sleeper RB, just because he's a RB and those are tough to find. If you luck out and get a sleeper RB/WR, you're on your way to the championship, if you get a good kicker, well then join the club, because 6 other guys got a good kicker off the FA list and also have a sleeper on their team that has the potential to break out. Me? Well I passed on Pitt's D and Jay Feely to take Marc Bulger and Lamar Gordon, worked out pretty well for me.

Also, you say it is less likely that NE and Balty D and Vandy/Wilkins would be a bust, but 2 of them have already been busts. Wilkins tore up 2 years ago, and was the first kicker taken in many leagues last year, only to drop off the face of the planet along with the Rams offense, while Jay feely racked up points. So, while neither were consistent, David Akers was. This year, he's done nothing, Feely has done nothing, and now Wilkins is good again. Baltimore's D didn't produce nearly as well as anticipated last year, and Pitt's dropped off the planet as well.

If picking a D/K were a sure thing, I'd take them over a possible sleeper in a second. But it's not, and so many good D/Kickers emerge that you can pick up off FA that it's not necessary. Kickers and D's go first to worst and worst to first from year to year, and you can rarely predict them. The point is if you take a defence/K that you think is going to be good, and they end up good, you get a few extra points because many other D/Kickers emerge on FA that you could've have picked up anyway. But, if you're lucky enough to nab a sleeper at WR/RB, the upgrade is insane.

We're talking upgrading KC's d to Tampa's, or John Carney to Mike Vanderjagt versus upgrading Curtis Conway to Chad Johnson/Santana Moss or last year Emmitt Smith to Clinton Portis/Duece Mccallister.

And btw, Toefield is a bad example, because when the time to draft him rolled around, the defences you were deciding between was getting Oakland then or waiting an extra round and ending up with Tennessee. The top defences started going off the board around the same time as Chad Johnson ;)
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Postby Shaffe » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:10 am

i usually go by groups of rounds. in the first 3 rounds i'll probably take 2 backs and a wideout. then i'll start thinking about qb's. i'd take manning (my projected number one qb at the beginning of this year--go me) in the fourth in a heartbeat. in fact, i did this year. but if there wasn't a manning type qb then i'd go wideout again. then i just weigh the remaining qb's against wideouts. i usually try to fill out my starters before i draft backups. that's just how i draft usually. i drafted feely in the middle of my draft but took wilkins with my last pick (second to last overall). wilkins was the much better pick..
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Postby Guest » Tue Dec 30, 2003 11:53 am

OK - I went with the drafting of running backs and wideouts early and teams started hoarding quarterbacks. I ended up with Fiedler, Tim Couch and M Vick--- Hurt my team pretty bad, The only other choices I had at quarterback were Leftwhich (who wasn't starting), Delhomme (another question mark) Fiedler, who I picked up, and Patrick Ramsey.... This was in the 5th round. I would draft with the flow for the most part. I generally go 2 RB 1 WR then whatever the trend is. I would say if it looks pretty slim around round 4, take a stud QB or you are going to get stuck with someone that puts up negative points like couch or fiedler-

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Postby Buckychudd » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:15 pm

Anonymous wrote:OK - I went with the drafting of running backs and wideouts early and teams started hoarding quarterbacks. I ended up with Fiedler, Tim Couch and M Vick--- Hurt my team pretty bad, The only other choices I had at quarterback were Leftwhich (who wasn't starting), Delhomme (another question mark) Fiedler, who I picked up, and Patrick Ramsey.... This was in the 5th round. I would draft with the flow for the most part. I generally go 2 RB 1 WR then whatever the trend is. I would say if it looks pretty slim around round 4, take a stud QB or you are going to get stuck with someone that puts up negative points like couch or fiedler-

You can't tell me Kitna was taken?! How many teams in your league 20? There is almost always a couple guys left in the dust you can pick up at QB, you can't say the same at RB.

My biggest pieces of advice.....use a tiered ranking system, so you know where the drop-offs are per position.....and pay attention to who the other coaches are drafting, look for the positions they have filled already and adjust your strategy accordingly.
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Postby pawnking » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:45 pm

One guy I knew thought there was no use in drafting QBs early. His opinion was that between them getting hurt so easily and having such wild variations in productivity from year to year, that picking them higher than round 5 was a waste. He actually had a good point. Generally in the year, fewer than half of all opening day QBs are still the starters by week 16. Why pick someone in round 1-3 who has only a 50% chance of even still starting at the season's end?

While I don't totally buy into this arguement, what is undeniable is that there are so many quality QBs who come off waivers or low in the draft, it can make a lot of sense to draft one no higher than round 6 or 7, then draft 3 or 4 of them and hope one developes, much as Kitna this year.
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Postby ScreamingWeasel » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:52 pm

KingGhidra wrote:I always find it weird when people have hard and fast rules like "dont pick a QB until round 7" or "pick a kicker last and a defense next to last".

Too true.
I ran the Racing Sausage FFL this past season, and I have never, and I mean EVER, seen a run on RBs like the one we had during the draft.
As I recall - a RB was taken with the first 13 picks!
When it got back to me 2nd-round @ #14, virtually every RB worth a high pick had been taken while every QB and WR in the entire NFL were available.
My personal draft "rule" was out the window in the first 5 minutes.
You've GOT to be flexible.
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Postby Birderdude » Tue Dec 30, 2003 1:53 pm

I went back and looked at some patterns from my league's draft. We were required to drafts 3 QBs, 4 rbs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 Ks, and 2 D/ST.

The team that won the league drafted like this (position by round):

The team that scored the most point in the season but lost in the playoffs drafted like this:

I ended up in the middle of the pack and drafted like this:
rb, qb, rb, te,rb, wr,wr,wr,wr,qb,d,k,qb,rb,te,wr,d,k

The guy that won the league had the worst draft plan (a defense and a kicker in the 4th and 5th round?). He really had a remarkable string of luck to win.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Dec 31, 2003 10:35 am

just a couple notes here:

First I completely agree with freebagel on the Def K strategies. Neither NE or BAL was not considered a top 5 D by most lists, and could have been gooten during the eventual run on Def or later this yr. Wilkins was ranked outside the top 15 K this preseason, and was a slam dunk 2nd to last rd or last rd pick for astute fantasy owners. OBTW - Im obviously going by Yahoo rankings which are a joke, but tend to be the most followed.

Second - I also think drafters should to have a list of players they think are going to be busts, are overranked, and another for those that they believe are underranked. For example, this season I came in knowing I wasnt going to draft Vick or Peerless, Horn, CMart, or George - just to give an example.
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