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Postby KingGeedorah » Sat Feb 14, 2004 4:36 pm

9er Fan wrote:
2002, Gannon and Culpepper were "worth" picks 1.10 & 1.12 respectively.

2003, Culpepper and Manning were "worth" picks 1.10 & 1.11 respectively. Most seasons there are probably 1 or 2 QBs "worth" picking at the end of round 1.

Not when guys like Trent Green and Kitna are consistently available in the late rounds.


Yes, even when guys like Trent Green and Kitna are consistently available in the late rounds.
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Postby Azrael » Sat Feb 14, 2004 4:37 pm

9er Fan wrote:
2002, Gannon and Culpepper were "worth" picks 1.10 & 1.12 respectively.

2003, Culpepper and Manning were "worth" picks 1.10 & 1.11 respectively. Most seasons there are probably 1 or 2 QBs "worth" picking at the end of round 1.

Not when guys like Trent Green and Kitna are consistently available in the late rounds.


I agree. While C-Pep, Manning, and Vick may produce like a top tier back, they're QBs, where the dropoff is much less to the next level of quarterbacks. Also, normally you only start one QB where you usually have to start 2 RBs. Top 10 or 12 QBs are available into the 7th and 8th rounds sometimes because there is no need to waste picks on backups QBs for those people who have already taken their starter. Top 10 or 12 RBs are probably gone by picks 11 and 14, respectively. The price for taking one of these guys is high in large leagues, because by the time you get to take your 2nd RB, you're probably looking at taking a Marcel Shipp, Hambrick, or Zereoue (in reference to this year). As a rule of thumb I pretty much don't take a QB before Rd 4 and if Manning, Vick, or C-Pep aren't there, I'll wait until like Rd 8 at least.
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Postby KingGeedorah » Sat Feb 14, 2004 5:03 pm

Azrael wrote:Top 10 or 12 RBs are probably gone by picks 11 and 14, respectively. The price for taking one of these guys is high [...]


Essentially making my point. If the top studs at a position are already gone, why are you wasting a high pick on a #13 guy? The bust factor of lower rated guys goes up a lot once you get away from the top guys. Time to switch to a top WR or possibly a Vick.

Question for all the "you must have 2 RBs by round 3" believers out there. If you had pick #1 in the draft and top 23 picks were all RBs, would you draft a RB with your 24th or 25th pick?
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Postby Canacuna » Sat Feb 14, 2004 5:18 pm

Some people take the "two RBs in the first two rounds" theory a little too much to heart. If I were at the tail end of the draft order, and the top seven RBs were gone, I'd consider taking someone like Randy Moss in the first round. There will be a second or third tier RB like Rudi, Barlow, DD, Stephen Davis, Marshall Faulk, Travis Henry, etc. by the time my second pick rolls around to be taken.

...Your list seems decent enough for the most part. I'd change a few things (C-Pepp ahead of Vick for example), but every owner has their own opinions on players.
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Postby Azrael » Sat Feb 14, 2004 8:21 pm

KingGeedorah wrote:
Azrael wrote:Top 10 or 12 RBs are probably gone by picks 11 and 14, respectively. The price for taking one of these guys is high [...]


Essentially making my point. If the top studs at a position are already gone, why are you wasting a high pick on a #13 guy? The bust factor of lower rated guys goes up a lot once you get away from the top guys. Time to switch to a top WR or possibly a Vick.

Question for all the "you must have 2 RBs by round 3" believers out there. If you had pick #1 in the draft and top 23 picks were all RBs, would you draft a RB with your 24th or 25th pick?


I didn't say that I wouldn't take a top wideout at this point. I was just addressing your post about certain QB's being worth a 1st or 2nd round pick...which I still say none of them are. I think that you should normally hold fast to the "2 RBs by the end of the 3rd round" rule of thumb unless extreme circumstances arise, such as your scenario of 23 RB's taken in a row and then I have the 24th and 25th picks. Here I would probably take Moss and Holt or Harrison (because this means I have Holmes or Tomlinson by having the 1st pick). I still wouldn't take a QB.

Sure you had Rudi and DD that were WW guys. You also had S. Moss, Steve Smith, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Kitna that were good WW guys at WR and QB. I think you are better off having secure RBs and hope to salvage some value at QB later in the draft or via WW during the year than vice versa.
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Postby Strider » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:39 am

Buckychudd wrote:
KingGeedorah wrote:Now that all 12 players have been snapped up in the Slow Mock draft I'm participating in, I'll release my round 1 cheat sheet.

1.01 Priest Holmes
1.02 LaDainian Tomlinson
1.03 Ahman Green
1.04 Clinton Portis
1.05 Shaun Alexander
1.06 Deuce McAllister
1.07 Jamal Lewis
1.08 Edgerrin James
1.09 Randy Moss
1.10 Ricky Williams
1.11 Torry Holt
1.12 Michael Vick

See, I do disagree with you.....I don't think that any QB belongs in the top 12. ;-)


yea qbs are pansies!!!!! no need for them in top 12

and BTW i don;t smoke i tell the TRUTH!!!!!!
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Postby M_Zimm_ffc » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:46 am

Strider wrote:
Buckychudd wrote:
KingGeedorah wrote:Now that all 12 players have been snapped up in the Slow Mock draft I'm participating in, I'll release my round 1 cheat sheet.

1.01 Priest Holmes
1.02 LaDainian Tomlinson
1.03 Ahman Green
1.04 Clinton Portis
1.05 Shaun Alexander
1.06 Deuce McAllister
1.07 Jamal Lewis
1.08 Edgerrin James
1.09 Randy Moss
1.10 Ricky Williams
1.11 Torry Holt
1.12 Michael Vick
See, I do disagree with you.....I don't think that any QB belongs in the top 12. ;-)


yea qbs are pansies!!!!! no need for them in top 12

and BTW i don;t smoke i tell the TRUTH!!!!!!

QBs do, if they can put up numbers worthy of being picked in the top 12 why shouldn't they be? My strategy is that I would rather get a top 3 guy at a position that a guy that is a risk there but Moss and Holt have been picked. You could take Harrison but specially if it is a keeper league why not take a really young QB that can put up numbers worthy of a round one pick?
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Postby Azrael » Tue Feb 17, 2004 12:59 pm

[quote="KingGhidra"]A few things about Mr. Vick.

1. He rushed for 585 yards in his 6 games back in 2003.
2. 100 rushing yards usually = 250 passing yards.
3. 2 rushing TDs usually = 3 passing TDs.
4. He finished 3rd in 2002.
quote]

Actually Mr. Vick only rushed for 255 yards in his FIVE games back. He passed for 585. In his 4 starts last year he scored traditional fantasy points (not counting any negatives) as follows:

Week 14 v. Carolina, 27 pts
Week 15 @ Indy, 4 pts
Week 16 @ Tampa, 15 pts
Week 17 v. Jax, 17 pts
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Postby 9er Fan » Tue Feb 17, 2004 1:52 pm

Question for all the "you must have 2 RBs by round 3" believers out there. If you had pick #1 in the draft and top 23 picks were all RBs, would you draft a RB with your 24th or 25th pick?

No, I'd take Randy Moss. Main thing is I wouldn't take a QB.
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Postby KingGhidra » Tue Feb 17, 2004 2:25 pm

Azrael wrote:
KingGhidra wrote:A few things about Mr. Vick.

1. He rushed for 585 yards in his 6 games back in 2003.
2. 100 rushing yards usually = 250 passing yards.
3. 2 rushing TDs usually = 3 passing TDs.
4. He finished 3rd in 2002.


Actually Mr. Vick only rushed for 255 yards in his FIVE games back. He passed for 585. In his 4 starts last year he scored traditional fantasy points (not counting any negatives) as follows:

Week 14 v. Carolina, 27 pts
Week 15 @ Indy, 4 pts
Week 16 @ Tampa, 15 pts
Week 17 v. Jax, 17 pts


Mea culpa. I transposed the rushing and passing stats.

Still...
The 4 games he started in 2003 project out to a hair under 1000 rushing yards. In fact, even if you add in his 5th game when he was only in for 2 series, it still projects to 800. Do I think he'll rush for 1000 yards? Doubtful. Would I be completely suprised if he did or came close? Not at all.

In 2002 he passed for 2900 and rushed for 777. That's the equivalent of 4800 passing yards in your typical fantasy scoring scenario. Most people make the mistake of just comparing passing yards and don't give rushing yards their true weight ("well Manning passes for 4000 and 28 TDs so he HAS to be better"). If Vick can match his 2002 stats, he will compete for the #1 fantasy QB. Caveat Emptor! Make sure you make solid picks at RB and WR. :)

In closing... I'm not even interested in hearing about Vick being a "high risk" quarterback. The QB position is high risk by nature. You drop back and have 270 pound lineman rushing you from the blind side trying to mash you into bits. It's not exactly "safe" no matter how you play the position. You could even argue that a QB that runs often has a style that is less risky, since contact is made by his choice and isn't as sudden or surprising.
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