mig28 wrote:A guide is a good "jumping off" point as you prep for D-Day, but consider this; unless you are looking at only statistics, the guide will be the product of either someones' opinion, or a binary equation. My suggestion is to develop your own draft guide. This dosen't necessarily have to be an all-consuming endeavor (unless you want it to be), and you can win or lose based on your own merit. Here are a few basic guidelines I use.
First, get the stats. They should encompass at least the last three seasons. Are the numbers generally going up, down, or staying the same? This will be the basis for the other factors you'll consider.
Next, look at a player's situation. Is he with a new team/coach? Has a new offense been installed? Injury history and age are a factor. Also, has he lost/gained any "supporting cast" (other skill position players on his team) ? All these questions can yield a positive or negative response, which can be coupled with his stats to give a better picture of how he may perform.
Finally, choose model situations from last or previous seasons. For example, Stephen Davis landed in a perfect situation in 03' in terms of offensive scheme, and had something to prove. Who is primed to have a similar situation happen for him this year ? My guess is the infamous Corey Dillon, but the point is, its my guess, and I can feel confident in it, wether I'm right or wrong. A draft guide could never give me that confidence. Good luck in '04.
That's awesome advice. I hadn't gone that deep in the past.
I usually find 3 cheet sheets (TSN, Fanball, & CBSSportsline) and average the positions for each player. I give a little extra weight for SOS and other news related to each player (i.e. injuries, contract year, etc..).
I was just wondering if anyone had a preference to Draft Guides like ProFootball Weekly. Was it worth the money in their experience?