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Let me paint a picture for you, then tell me what u would do

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Let me paint a picture for you, then tell me what u would do

Postby aussieboy » Wed Apr 07, 2004 12:08 am

Ok uve got the number 1 pick in a 12 team league which starts QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF.

Now with your first pick you take whom u consider to be the best RB available (either Priest or LT). You then wait for what seem like an eternity to take ur 2nd player. By the time ur 2nd pick comes along (24th overall pick) all the top tier RB are gone and most of the second tier guys are also gone. Chances are the top 2, 3 WR are also gone. So with ur second pick u decide to take a top tier WR. Now heres where it gets interesting. Youve made ur choice to go RB, WR....u know that u have the best RB and a top tier WR, do u pick one of the remaining RB, even though u know all the decent ones are pretty much gone, or do u take TONY GONZALES with ur 3rd pick?

Personally id go with TGonz. I think ur chances of picking up a sleeper RB are as good in the 4th round as they are in the 3rd round. TGonz however is a rarity, if u miss out on him then there goes ur immediate advantage u have over the rest of the comp in having a consistently productive TE. For those of you that are unaware of this strategy, have a read of the "Value Based Drafting Strategy", i think there are a few articles on this that have previously been posted.
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Postby Canacuna » Wed Apr 07, 2004 12:10 am

Tony Gonzalez certainly wouldn't be a bad pick, but I'd also see if a stud QB may be available, too (C-Pepp, Manning, Vick).
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Postby terpfan » Wed Apr 07, 2004 12:16 am

3.01 is too high for any tight end in my opinion. It would depend on what rbs were available and whether you could take a guy like Culpepper or Manning. I'd even go with a guy like Chad Johnson over TGon, especially since you start 3 wrs. Just my opinion.
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Postby aussieboy » Wed Apr 07, 2004 12:31 am

Fair point Serpan but, performing WR are a lot easier to find on FA than TE are.....Steve Smith, Santana Moss were a couple i got off FA last yr that performed great towards the end of the season.
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Postby MCG321 » Wed Apr 07, 2004 12:51 am

terpfan wrote:3.01 is too high for any tight end in my opinion. It would depend on what rbs were available and whether you could take a guy like Culpepper or Manning. I'd even go with a guy like Chad Johnson over TGon, especially since you start 3 wrs. Just my opinion.


I agree wholeheartedly.

Gonzo will usually outperform most TEs by a lot, but I think you'll be getting more of an impact from a 2nd WR or another top WR. I guess Jamal Lewis won't fall to the late second round like he did when I snagged him last year. ;-)
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Postby Arlo » Wed Apr 07, 2004 5:10 am

Great topic!

I'm a strong believer in drafting by positional scarcity, or value-based, or whatever term you like to use (although I recently found one case that disproved my idea that positional scarcity was always the best way to draft, which came as a bit of a surprise ... but I'm getting sidetracked), and drafting TEs early, but in most drafts, 3.1 is just a bit too early for my taste as well. In most cases, after going RB-WR, I'd probably try to follow up with another RB before looking at TE.

Just a matter of taste, of course, and it obviously depends on scoring and the players already chosen. I wouldn't argue with Gonzalez at that pick, either.
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Postby slowkidz » Wed Apr 07, 2004 6:16 am

ive been known to jump on a TE early as well, but never before the 4th at the earliest. i'd look at whatever RBs are left, and then probably choose a top qb (Cpep, Vick, Manning comes to mind).

whats funny is i had the same strategy in the GBFFL, where i took LT2, Horn, and Manning with my first 3 picks. (#1 in 12 team Lg) I ended up filling in the rest of my roster with good WRs and a few 3rd tier RBs/RBBC. It was one of the hardest drafts I've been in, but I also ended up winning the league.

You're right on there being more WR talent in the FA pool during the season, but I always tend to look for the guy on the board who will score me the most points vs a top TE or Defense that early in the draft.
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Postby Buckychudd » Wed Apr 07, 2004 7:53 am

It really depends on who is left, but the 25th pick of the draft is probably just a little too early to pick up Gonzo. However, he probably won't be around for your next pick.....so I wouldn't argue with that pick. But Shockey and Sharpe (assuming he doesn't retire) should be around for a few more rounds, and they are not a huge step-off from Gonzo.....after that, the pickings are slim though.

Like you said, having a consistent performer like Gonzo on your squad does wonders for your team.....I'm definately a believer in VBD. Don't underestimate having a quality consistent TE on your squad.
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Postby aussieboy » Wed Apr 07, 2004 7:54 am

"......but I always tend to look for the guy on the board who will score me the most points vs a top TE......."

From what i understand and go by (which is the VBD) the guy who may score more points is not necessarily the best player to take. For example if a pretty good QB or WR for that matter is still on the board id be more inclined to still go for TGonz. Sure the QB or WR may score more points each week, but, the difference between the top tier QBs or WR and the next tier down is no where near as big as the difference between TGonz and the other lame TEs, and that is the key.
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Postby aussieboy » Wed Apr 07, 2004 8:00 am

".......(although I recently found one case that disproved my idea that positional scarcity was always the best way to draft, which came as a bit of a surprise ... but I'm getting sidetracked)......"

Hey arlo, im keen to hear about this scenario, care to elaborate for me?

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