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Let me paint a picture for you, then tell me what u would do

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Postby goleafsgo96 » Wed Apr 07, 2004 8:56 pm

i also agree with the two high to take a TE theory, id go looking for a stud QB.
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Postby Buckychudd » Wed Apr 07, 2004 10:31 pm

Arlo wrote:Without wanting to sidetrack an awesome discussion ... in reader's digest form, I was trying to figure out how to defeat a mock draft program in which the computer was able to use positional scarcity more effectively than I could. The setup was one human vs. 11 computer drafters, using roto scoring. The answer: let the computer drafters fight among themselves, and beat them all by punting four out of ten categories.

The long version is here (first post on page four).

Yes, it's a highly unusual scenario, and it's by no means a knock on positional scarcity, but it surprised me nonetheless. It's certainly worth keeping in mind that there are also factors in football scoring (a head-to-head format with playoffs, for instance), that might support other strategies.

Incidentally, I completely agree about Tony Gonzalez' value...

Dang thems base-a-ma-ball folks is much smarterz than uses....usin' them big wordz like ozomozoas and stuffz.

I don't know the ins-and-outs of baseball scoring (outs.....get it? :-D ), but I'm just not sure "punting" would be a viable FF strategy.

Sure there are better strategies than VBD (incedently I like my Predictive Method listed here http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=58510) but using a combination of strategies and staying flexible in a drafting situation seems to work the best for me.
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Postby KingGhidra » Wed Apr 07, 2004 10:40 pm

Buckychudd wrote: :-D ), but I'm just not sure "punting" would be a viable FF strategy.


I'm not even sure what "punting" strategy is.
[/quote]

Sure there are better strategies than VBD (incedently I like my Predictive Method listed here http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=58510) but using a combination of strategies and staying flexible in a drafting situation seems to work the best for me.[/quote]

Predictive is part of VBD (or part of all drafting strategies really). It's referred to as "peer pressure". Don't draft a guy before you have to. If you've seen on the espn draft leagues that Brian Westbrook is going in round 6, you're not gonna draft him in round 2.
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Paint A Picture...

Postby mig28 » Wed Apr 07, 2004 10:50 pm

I don't have much to add, except to say that this is hands down the BEST thread I've seen here; these replies alone could school any FF rookie.
I just completed a twelve team mock with some league owners, in which Gonzo went 3rd round, 11th pick. RBs of note who were available in the 3rd or later were Rudi, DD, Dillon, F. Taylor, Garner, Tiki, Westbrook, DeShaun, Bennett (getting thin!), C. Mart...
In my mind, Gonzo is a TE in name only, so I usually rank him right along w/ WRs, and go from there. QB would also be my choice for the original scenario, in the 3rd round.
"Life's battles don't always go to the stronger or faster man. But sooner or later, the man who wins is the man who thinks he can." - Vince Lombardi
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Postby Buckychudd » Wed Apr 07, 2004 10:58 pm

KingGhidra wrote:Predictive is part of VBD (or part of all drafting strategies really). It's referred to as "peer pressure". Don't draft a guy before you have to. If you've seen on the espn draft leagues that Brian Westbrook is going in round 6, you're not gonna draft him in round 2.

Peer pressure in VBD relates to how well a player outscores his peers, not who the other coaches will draft. VBD is just a ranking system that models that strategy. Strictly using VBD can cause you to take a player too early.

I'll give you a perfect example of Predictive and using the Serpentine Rebound.....

Pick 7.7 of the Sandwich Mock you took Plummer as your QB. Since everyone picking between your 7.7 pick and your 8.6 pick had already taken a starting QB, and it was highly unlikely that they would draft a back-up QB this early......you could have taken another player at 7.7 and still been able to draft Plummer at 8.6.

Sometimes it can backfire.....like it did on Zimm, but overall it's a good addition to your toolbox.
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Re: Paint A Picture...

Postby Buckychudd » Wed Apr 07, 2004 11:04 pm

mig28 wrote:I don't have much to add, except to say that this is hands down the BEST thread I've seen here; these replies alone could school any FF rookie.
I just completed a twelve team mock with some league owners, in which Gonzo went 3rd round, 11th pick. RBs of note who were available in the 3rd or later were Rudi, DD, Dillon, F. Taylor, Garner, Tiki, Westbrook, DeShaun, Bennett (getting thin!), C. Mart...
In my mind, Gonzo is a TE in name only, so I usually rank him right along w/ WRs, and go from there. QB would also be my choice for the original scenario, in the 3rd round.

I'm suprised all those RBs were still availible......in most of the mocks I've seen most of them are gone in the 2nd or early 3rd.

The point is that Gonzo is more valuable than a WR that is going to score equivilant points.....because the drop-off after him is much steeper than at an equivilant WR.
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Postby aussieboy » Thu Apr 08, 2004 1:54 am

".......The point is that Gonzo is more valuable than a WR that is going to score equivilant points.....because the drop-off after him is much steeper than at an equivilant WR......"

exactly....the fact that he performs like decent WR whilst being eligible for the most scarce postion is what makes him so great to own.

P.S-ive noticed Bennett going very late in mocks too. I think he could become a steal in many drafts, especially since word has it the Vikings could trade him following Onterio's late season performances. In the right place, Bennett could be a nice guy to target in those later rounds as your 2nd RB if uve gone RB, WR, TE, QB.
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Postby KingGhidra » Thu Apr 08, 2004 2:27 am

Buckychudd wrote:
KingGhidra wrote:Predictive is part of VBD (or part of all drafting strategies really). It's referred to as "peer pressure". Don't draft a guy before you have to. If you've seen on the espn draft leagues that Brian Westbrook is going in round 6, you're not gonna draft him in round 2.

Peer pressure in VBD relates to how well a player outscores his peers, not who the other coaches will draft. VBD is just a ranking system that models that strategy. Strictly using VBD can cause you to take a player too early.


Yeah.. I misquoted the article, but he does mention not drafting a player before you're forced to.

You may well have a Tony Gonzalez show up in your top 10 overall players if your league has a mandatory TE. But that's way too early to actually draft him. Take another player there and get Gonzalez later. The owner who wins will be the owner who gets the best value for his picks. Gonzalez in the first round is not a real value. Gonzalez in the 3rd round is great value. Bottom line is don't draft a player any earlier than your fellow owners force you to.



I'll give you a perfect example of Predictive and using the Serpentine Rebound.....

Pick 7.7 of the Sandwich Mock you took Plummer as your QB. Since everyone picking between your 7.7 pick and your 8.6 pick had already taken a starting QB, and it was highly unlikely that they would draft a back-up QB this early......you could have taken another player at 7.7 and still been able to draft Plummer at 8.6.

Probably could've gotten him in round 14 since he doesn't seem to be on anyone's short list of good starting QBs. I figured at that point I didn't want to take any chances. I suppose I could've drafted Dunn or Staley as a solid #3 RB or a #1 K, but the players I ended up with were the players I wanted.
;-)
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Postby Buckychudd » Thu Apr 08, 2004 8:12 am

aussieboy wrote:P.S-ive noticed Bennett going very late in mocks too. I think he could become a steal in many drafts, especially since word has it the Vikings could trade him following Onterio's late season performances. In the right place, Bennett could be a nice guy to target in those later rounds as your 2nd RB if uve gone RB, WR, TE, QB.

I've heard a few people talking him up. Personally I'm too afraid of RBBC, especially since you can never tell what Tice is going to do.
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Postby Buckychudd » Thu Apr 08, 2004 8:34 am

KingGhidra wrote:Probably could've gotten him in round 14 since he doesn't seem to be on anyone's short list of good starting QBs. I figured at that point I didn't want to take any chances. I suppose I could've drafted Dunn or Staley as a solid #3 RB or a #1 K, but the players I ended up with were the players I wanted.
;-)

Yeah, there comes a time in every draft where the pickings start getting slim......and most strategies go out the window and you just start picking up who you like. I probably would have drafted a back-up WR or RB.....your back-up RB is going to start at least two games for you (bye weeks), and if your starter gets hurt, they may be playing more than that.
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