Warpigs wrote:One more way to look at this...
I wonder which was more successful last year in terms of teams that made playoffs in their respective leagues. Ones that took a proven guy like Tony G in the third round (about where he was going last year in most drafts) or teams that drafted other starting positions (RB, WR) in the third and fourth rounds and jumped on the sleeper TE with high upsides (Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, for example). My money is on the latter -- that teams who filled up other positions with good talent and then snagged Witten and Gates later were the ones who had the most successful teams overall. Just a hunch.
Yes, but then look at the amount of teams who made the playoffs who took RB and WR then jumped on a TE with high upside like Todd Heap. Probably not very good. That's the problem. If you draft Gonzo, you're guaranteed a top TE. Last year Witten and Gates were big risks, two that paid off. There's plenty of other people who took risks on people that didn't pay off and probably ended up dropping them for Putzier or the like.
If you end up with a this year's version of Gates or Witten after going RB, WR in the second and third, then you'll probably go far, but after Gonzo, TEs are risks.