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Why Vick?

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Why Vick?

Postby maddog60 » Fri Apr 30, 2004 1:10 pm

After seeing the recent plethora of QB rankings on another thread, and I was kinda intrigued at how Vick became the concensus #2-#3 fantasy football QB. I figured it had to be my Philly bias, so I came up with a experiment. I figured a reasonable scoring system that favors the running QB and downplay passing QBs, would look something like this:

Passing Yards: 1 pt / 25 yds
Rushing Yards: 1 pt / 10 yds
Passing TDs: 4 pts
Rushing TDs: 6 pts
INTs: -2 pts
Fumbles Lost: -2 pts

What with low passing yard point ratio, more points for rushing TDs, and no penalty for sacks, I would figure this system is an ideal one for Michael Vick. Then I decided to use this system of point scoring to compare the fantasy football values of Vick and the man I think should be the #3 fantasy QB, McNabb.

I wanted to exclude the injury factor (again, favoring Vick who has missed plenty of time) and decided to calculate the average fantasy points per game each QB scored. Since Vick has only played 3 seasons, it would only be fair to count the past 3 seasons. To do this, I used the seasonal statistics off of Yahoo Sports. Here were the results:

Year McNabb Vick
03 13.5625 12.4
02 22.1 17.375
01 16.1875 7.375

So, in every seasonal since Vick has played, McNabb has put up more points per game than Vick. Assuming both play a full 16 game season, McNabb will score more fantasy points. Now, I tried to skew this experiment as much in Vick's favor as possible within reason(no 20 pt rushing TD vs. 1 pt passing TD nonsense), and still he's not as good as at least one QB who everyone seems to have ranked just below him.

So I must ask, why Vick? What is it that has just about everyone ranking him as at least the #3 QB in fantasy football. Is Yahoo Sports widely inaccurate with their stats? Have I made an arithematic error here? Or is the love for Vick just based on guess-work and hopes of potential that may/may not be acheived?
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Postby awwchrist » Fri Apr 30, 2004 2:11 pm

Ironic that you posted this because as I was beginning to get y top 10 QB rankings down for another thread I too was wondering why so many people have Vick down as a top 3 to 5 QB.

If I really wanted to be honest with myself, I could easily justify ranking him at 7.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Apr 30, 2004 2:50 pm

playing devils advocate here - I assume that people are rating Vick higher based on potential than anything else. Using Vicks first 3 yrs - none of which were a complete season - probably isnt the best indicator of future performance - especially when compared to a seasoned veteran who many consider one of the best QBs in football, and plays for a perrenial playoff contender.

I agree that its tough to justify a high ranking for Vick using his stats from his first 3 seasons. I also think that it would be a flawed analysis given age, development, supporting cast, and injuries arent necessarily factored in.

Thats a pretty good reason why people rank him high. Im not saying his high ranking is accurate, but that it can be justified based on percieved potential.
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Postby CC » Fri Apr 30, 2004 3:05 pm

Vick only played a bit in this year and his rookie season, and has been hampered by injury every year. Were he healthy most people would draft him based purely on potential alone.
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Postby Canacuna » Fri Apr 30, 2004 3:38 pm

I was pretty low on Vick too, but KG influenced me enough to sway my opinion towards the positive end of the spectrum. I did some number crunching based on potential numbers he could reach and he turned out decent enough - I 'spose his high ranking is based mostly on his potential, seeing as he is the Falcons entire offense - but even if he doesn't meet my expectations, he will still be pretty damn good (assuming injuries aren't a factor).
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Postby arrbez » Fri Apr 30, 2004 4:20 pm

i think vick is gonna destroy the league this year. im expecting big things
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Postby smackthefirst » Fri Apr 30, 2004 4:31 pm

Vick is purely a potential pick. Nuff said.
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Postby TheHeat24 » Fri Apr 30, 2004 5:12 pm

I hardly call that scoring system skewed towards vick... thats pretty much the same scoring system we use in our league... You gtta remeber mcnabb is also a runnign qb and gets his tds on the ground... You also need to remeber that in Vick's first year of starting his #1 was Brian Finerran aka White Lightning(dont ask) and I dont think he would be a number one on any team in the league other than mayb th ravens and we know how bad they are at wr...... Fast Forward to 2004 and hes got peerless price to throw to for an entire season as well as alge crumpler and they drafted the talented Michael Jenkins as well.

I know there is the whole TO thing but philly's system is based mostly on the short passing game and they will throw just as much as last year just TO will get the majority of the receptions as opposed to the ball going to 12 different receivers.
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Postby Canacuna » Fri Apr 30, 2004 5:37 pm

...I kind of like to think of Vick as a decent #3 RB who gets some occasional passing yards, too.
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Postby Flux » Fri Apr 30, 2004 5:59 pm

TheHeat24 wrote:I hardly call that scoring system skewed towards vick... thats pretty much the same scoring system we use in our league... You gtta remeber mcnabb is also a runnign qb and gets his tds on the ground... You also need to remeber that in Vick's first year of starting his #1 was Brian Finerran aka White Lightning(dont ask) and I dont think he would be a number one on any team in the league other than mayb th ravens and we know how bad they are at wr...... Fast Forward to 2004 and hes got peerless price to throw to for an entire season as well as alge crumpler and they drafted the talented Michael Jenkins as well.

I know there is the whole TO thing but philly's system is based mostly on the short passing game and they will throw just as much as last year just TO will get the majority of the receptions as opposed to the ball going to 12 different receivers.


While Finneran is no #1, you can hardly say that McNabb had a huge advantage with his WR's.

You can't just play off the TO thing. He is much more likely than any WR McNabb had before to break a few tackles and take it to the house, AND he is much more likely than Price or Jenkins to do that as well.

You saying that the setup is hardly skewed for Vick, just goes to show that McNabb is the better QB. The reason being is that there is no way to skew the stats to favor Vick unless somehow rushing yds for a QB are with TONS of points and Vick out rushes McNabb

That being said, Vick by far has the most potential to put up disgusting numbers in passing, rushing, and TDs. But i am not sold on him, especially since he has been injured more seasons than not. I certainly wont be the guy in the draft to use a 2nd rd pick on him, but to each his own.
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