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Why Vick?

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Postby Canacuna » Wed May 05, 2004 1:37 am

awwchrist wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:Vick top 7 overall? Thats a joke.... In the top 7 I'll let you have him and laugh all the way to the championship.


Dude, do you need a seeing eye-dog to follow this discussion for you?


Teehee. ;-D
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Wed May 05, 2004 6:57 pm

If Vick gets taken in the 2nd/3rd round, and plays like a top 7 overall player that people feel he is,


That is where Mr. Bagel said people project him as a top 7 OVERALL. Do you guys need a seeing eye dog to read the posts correctly? Overall means all players NOT only QBs. And I got the point, if Vick is drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round and plays like a top 7 pick then he'll be a steal and like getting a first rounder for a 3rd rounder. I'm saying most people don't project him as a top 7 OVERALL player.

First - no one is saying Vick is a top 7 pick.


Uh, no one said he would be picked in the top 7. But someone said people have him ranked top 7 overall. I didn't say anywhere about a specific person saying he should go top 7. I said that Mr. Bagel said that 'People' project him as a top 7.

Second - and this is more important for me to get across - your statement about past performance being the best indicator of future perfomance is extremely wrong. This is a common misconception used in many aspects of our lives. Fundamental analysis of the current situation and future prospects is the best indicator for future performance. Just like the stock market, chasing trends is the easiest and most common way to fail.


With out change then the best indicator of future performance is past performance. It's the truth. It's the best and easiest way to predict what will happen. True if things change then you re-evaluate the situation. Not much has changed for Vick so I'm not banking on him as a player I must get. Especially cause he's going to go too high. Of course it's not an exact science. And using your stock analogy I have to say that most stocks are pretty secure and you know what you're going to get because of past performance (lets say Coca-Cola). And then you have your overhyped 'New' stock that gets everyone to over pay with getting little in return (lets say, Breex Gold). Of course Their are the stocks that are hyped and actually do do well, but they are risky (Lets say RIM when it first came out). This thread started with McNabb vs. Vick. I'll let you decide which player is which company.


TheRawDAWG wrote:


My top 7:

1: LT
2: Priest
3: Green
4: Portis
5: Duece
6: Lewis
7: Ricky


Nice.. so umm what about top 7 QBs?


Well if you read the post I said I'd say Vick is probably my 4th ranked QB behind McNabb, Manning and Culpepper. And since the question was whats my top 7 OVERALL I answered with all RBs because they are my top 7 OVERALL.


I think we need a dictionary in here. Can someone get a mod to link up a dictionary site?
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby Azrael » Wed May 05, 2004 8:29 pm

Here's the thing about past performance. It's just one tool that should be used in moderation with VBD, future prospectus, analyzing the impact of additions and losses to that team, etc.

If you use just about any fantasy cheat sheet (which are heavily based on PP) you'll either end up with an average team or huge disappointments. I would be highly surprised if you based your drafting strategy on PP and came out on top.

Just ask the guy in my league who took Ricky 2nd overall and then Plaxico in the 2nd round or the guy who took Edge and Henry because they were the highest ranked backs left when it was his turn to pick.

Winning your league or doing well is about successfully identifying where equal levels of performance will exist later on in the draft at a specific position so that you can make a more valuable pick now.

Ex. You're in a 10 team draft. You had the 4th pick in the 1st round and took, let's say Ahman Green. It's your turn to pick in the 2nd round. With all of the players currently off the board, the cheetsheats dictate you should probably take D. Davis, Barlow, or maybe Dillon. Perhaps you think Westbrook or a Julius Jones are going to outperform their rank and you can get them in the 4th or 5th rounds. This allows you to maybe snag Owens, Harrison, Culpepper, or Vick if you may now.

Moral of the story is that everyone is using the PP cheatsheets. Identifying picks that will outperform where the cheatsheets suggest or mass appeal dictates will allow you to take more valuable players a round or 2 earlier than where everyone else will take them.
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Postby pmac_03 » Wed May 05, 2004 8:46 pm

TheHeat24 wrote:
KingGhidra wrote:
ajgnydc722 wrote:If I want rushing stats I'll get a RB. Of course it's gravy with a QB but only if your number 1 QB also racks up the pasisng stats.


When 100 rushing yards count as 250 passing yards, who cares if he doesn't rack up as many passing yards as other guys. Vick is the Marshall Faulk of QBs. He can get his points more than one way.


amen to that...


that is ridiculous scoring, tds IMO should be the same amount, and if it isnt, why are rushing ones more? they are qbs they pass the tds. skilled guys like manning throw the ball, why should he be a down grade to any rusher. but so be it, above says it all.
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Postby Free Bagel » Wed May 05, 2004 9:03 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:
If Vick gets taken in the 2nd/3rd round, and plays like a top 7 overall player that people feel he is,


That is where Mr. Bagel said people project him as a top 7 OVERALL. Do you guys need a seeing eye dog to read the posts correctly? Overall means all players NOT only QBs. And I got the point, if Vick is drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round and plays like a top 7 pick then he'll be a steal and like getting a first rounder for a 3rd rounder. I'm saying most people don't project him as a top 7 OVERALL player.


The point is that Vick has the potential to play like a first rounder, and Mcnabb has pretty much peaked, and it's unlikely that he'll "break out" with stats any better than he's already put up, whereas people feel Vick's best years are still in front of him.

If you want a 3rd round pick, that's gonna play like a 3rd round pick, and probably not play any worse but probably not any better, and feel that someone else on your team is gonna carry you to the championship and you just want your QB to keep up, then take Mcnabb.

If you want to spend your 3rd round pick on someone that could play like a 3rd rounder, could play like a 5th rounder, or could play like a 1st rounder and carry your team, take Vick.

Once you get past the first round, it's time to stop always taking the "safe" pick, a team full of "safe" picks won't win a championship.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu May 06, 2004 9:19 am

[quote="TheRawDAWG"]With out change then the best indicator of future performance is past performance. It's the truth. It's the best and easiest way to predict what will happen. True if things change then you re-evaluate the situation. Not much has changed for Vick so I'm not banking on him as a player I must get. Especially cause he's going to go too high. Of course it's not an exact science. And using your stock analogy I have to say that most stocks are pretty secure and you know what you're going to get because of past performance (lets say Coca-Cola). And then you have your overhyped 'New' stock that gets everyone to over pay with getting little in return (lets say, Breex Gold). Of course Their are the stocks that are hyped and actually do do well, but they are risky (Lets say RIM when it first came out). This thread started with McNabb vs. Vick. I'll let you decide which player is which company.
[quote]

Change is continuous - it never stops. We always need to reevaluate. This is life.

Not much has changed with Vick? Seriously, if you knew enough about him, Im sure you could fill volumes about how much he has changed since last yr - everything from his team surroundings to a different coach, growing an afro to clipping his nails to the health of his ankle - all of it is change. To assume nothing has changed is simply shortsighted.

As for your stock analogy about knowing what you are getting based on past performance because stocks tend to act the same over long periods of time - listen to me - that is one of the most inaccurate statements Ive seen in a very long time. I am a stockbroker, so in fact, I am coming from a position of experience and knowledge on this subject. The statement "Past performance is not an indicator of future returns" is printed at the bottom of every single piece of research I read from prospectus, to annual reports, to monthly client statements. Your statement simply is not true. If you dont believe me, please go ask someone in the prediction industry who you trust to answer that question, because you will set yourself up for financial losses if you dont get this concept down now.
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