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Is Jamal Underrated?

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Postby NittanyLions » Mon May 10, 2004 1:59 pm

Two thing:
1st: I think Jamal should be up at #6 or so, I doubt he will have another seaosn like last, but you cant deny his studliness of last year
2nd: Portis at 7 and 6? how can you rank him so low with two great 1st seasons, and the theory of hes out of denver so he sucks is BS, cause WAS should have a decent O-line, they carried stephen davis remember, having him that low is crazy, he just a stud himself
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon May 10, 2004 3:03 pm

NittanyLions wrote:Two thing:
1st: I think Jamal should be up at #6 or so, I doubt he will have another seaosn like last, but you cant deny his studliness of last year
2nd: Portis at 7 and 6? how can you rank him so low with two great 1st seasons, and the theory of hes out of denver so he sucks is BS, cause WAS should have a decent O-line, they carried stephen davis remember, having him that low is crazy, he just a stud himself


I disagree with you there.
I really dont think Portis is going to do as good outside of DEN. You can say its a BS theory if you want, but I can say the same about your theory that WAS carried Stephen Davis. However, to write off either theory as BS is simply narrow-minded.
Is it true that DEN is considered to have one of the best running game systems in the NFL? yes.
So could one reasonably argue that the RB numbers put forth from Denver are more a part of the system than the runner? yes - it can be argued.
Should the theory be written off as BS? at your own risk.

Portis is overrated IMO, but we'll see when the whistle blows...
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Postby KingGhidra » Mon May 10, 2004 3:28 pm

Free Bagel wrote:I don't get this, the summary you just gave of Lewis is basically the exact same as Ahman Green, and yet you put Green in that list.


Respect for Brett Favre opens up the running game for Green. Who is gonna be the QB in Baltimore this year? Tennessee proved the Baltimore run game can be shut down and there will be teams with the personnel capable of copycatting what they did. Jamal had a breakout season now everyone rates him like he is going to rush for 2000 yards again (which is my main gripe). I doubt that's gonna happen. Green has the ability to do it in the passing game too (beats me how, he has hands of stone). I also like how GB behaves at the goalline. They are a smart team. They won't do predictable things. They know how to playaction and disguise their goalline play calls well. They are one of the best goal line playcalling teams I've seen.

Of course with that federal thing Jam has going, he might not see a play this season. So for right now he gets downgraded even further on my list.

Given two guys that both put up numbers well above their career averages, one is his 3rd season and the other in his 6th, and it would seem to me that it's more likely that the guy in his 3rd year just broke out and the guy in his 6th year had somewhat of a fluke season, not the other way around...


Not sure you can say Green had a fluke season. Steadily improved stats over the past four seasons. Even went for 550+ receiving yards twice. Can't really say it's his 6th season either, he has 4 seasons worth of work on him. Kinda like saying Pennington is a four year vet when he's had enough starts for one and a half seasons.

I agree it's arguable the other way, but I see more x-factors that favor Green.
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Postby KingGhidra » Mon May 10, 2004 3:37 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Ito have one of the best running game systems in the NFL? yes.
So could one reasonably argue that the RB numbers put forth from Denver are more a part of the system than the runner? yes - it can be argued.


It can be argued, it just makes no sense. Players make the system not vice versa. A good system makes good players excel, but at the end of the day your system stands on how good your players are.

Is Troy Hambrick gonna rush for 1600 yards in 13 games playing for Denver? Is Lamar Smith? Is the success of RBs in Denver only because of the system? Can you plug anyone in and have them achieve great numbers? The answer to all four questions is no. Portis put up good numbers because Portis is a good running back. Only concern for him is his health. Was last year just some flukey nagging injuries or will this be the calling card of his career? Fear not of Portis in a Washington uniform.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon May 10, 2004 4:02 pm

KingGhidra wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Ito have one of the best running game systems in the NFL? yes.
So could one reasonably argue that the RB numbers put forth from Denver are more a part of the system than the runner? yes - it can be argued.


It can be argued, it just makes no sense. Players make the system not vice versa. A good system makes good players excel, but at the end of the day your system stands on how good your players are.

Is Troy Hambrick gonna rush for 1600 yards in 13 games playing for Denver? Is Lamar Smith? Is the success of RBs in Denver only because of the system? Can you plug anyone in and have them achieve great numbers? The answer to all four questions is no. Portis put up good numbers because Portis is a good running back. Only concern for him is his health. Was last year just some flukey nagging injuries or will this be the calling card of his career? Fear not of Portis in a Washington uniform.


au contrair...
Yes you have to have talent, but which talent are you referring to? The talented Oline Den has, or the talent behind the line of scrimmage?
Is Orlandis Gary a "talented" RB - because when they plugged him in he achieved great numbers.
How about Mike Anderson - he had a great yr too?
So, given those two examples, I challenge that, yes, in fact, they can plug less talented people into their system and have them achieve great results.

Let me truthfully answer your 4 questions:
Hambrick? No - he isnt the type of RB DEN likes in their system, so I doubt it.
Lamar Smith - same as Hambrick - no.
System makes the RB? recent history suggests that, yes, DEN system makes the RB, not the other way around.
Can you plug anyone into the DEN system and have them achieve great numbers? of course not - part of their system is selecting RBs that fit the system.
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Postby VHawk15 » Mon May 10, 2004 4:10 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Is Orlandis Gary a "talented" RB - because when they plugged him in he achieved great numbers.


Just for your information, in Olandis Gary's best season, he had about 1100 yards and 7 TD's. Pretty good, but definitely not "great numbers."
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Postby Free Bagel » Mon May 10, 2004 5:24 pm

KingGhidra wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:I don't get this, the summary you just gave of Lewis is basically the exact same as Ahman Green, and yet you put Green in that list.


Respect for Brett Favre opens up the running game for Green. Who is gonna be the QB in Baltimore this year? Tennessee proved the Baltimore run game can be shut down and there will be teams with the personnel capable of copycatting what they did. Jamal had a breakout season now everyone rates him like he is going to rush for 2000 yards again (which is my main gripe). I doubt that's gonna happen. Green has the ability to do it in the passing game too (beats me how, he has hands of stone). I also like how GB behaves at the goalline. They are a smart team. They won't do predictable things. They know how to playaction and disguise their goalline play calls well. They are one of the best goal line playcalling teams I've seen.

Of course with that federal thing Jam has going, he might not see a play this season. So for right now he gets downgraded even further on my list.

Given two guys that both put up numbers well above their career averages, one is his 3rd season and the other in his 6th, and it would seem to me that it's more likely that the guy in his 3rd year just broke out and the guy in his 6th year had somewhat of a fluke season, not the other way around...


Not sure you can say Green had a fluke season. Steadily improved stats over the past four seasons. Even went for 550+ receiving yards twice. Can't really say it's his 6th season either, he has 4 seasons worth of work on him. Kinda like saying Pennington is a four year vet when he's had enough starts for one and a half seasons.

I agree it's arguable the other way, but I see more x-factors that favor Green.



This doesn't do anything for me...Brett Favre was there for all of Ahman's years, so it's not like it was anything different for him last year. If Ahman had put together his career averages without Favre, and then had a huge year this year, that would be one thing. But he didn't, all the other years, with Favre, with he still put up those numbers. The QB situation doesn't matter, Lewis showed he can do it without a QB. Last year Boller was a rookie, he'll only get better, and even if he doesn't, so what, that didn't stop him before...

Lastly, I don't see how you can say Ahman's year wasn't an outlier but Jamal's was. Quite the contrary in fact, when looking at it, it bears the opposite results.

Jamal's second best year was 2002, where he had about 400 less total yards and 7 less TD's then this past year. So Jamal's stats go up in the following order of years he played:

1st year: 3rd best year
2nd year: 2nd best year
3rd year: best year

Logical progression.

Of Ahman's 4 seasons he's been the starter, his second best year was 2001, where he had 300 fewer yards and 9 fewer TD's. His stats ordered by year are the following:

1st year: 3rd best year
2nd year: 2nd best year
3rd year: 4th best year
4th year: best year

Not exactly a steady progression...


To sum it all up. You said Green's stats went up more progressively, when in fact it's Lewis' stats that go up more progressively, whereas Green's seem more random. You said Green's past season was not an outlier, when he had 300yds and 9TD's more than he did in his best season, whereas you account for Lewis' season as an outlier when he had 400yds and 7TD's more than his best year, which is actually about the same amount of fantasy points difference than the difference between Green's two best years. Further, Lewis has one fewer year for comparison, meaning we should be willing to give Lewis a bit of leway in terms of the difference because he has less years to compare to. But, it turns out that he doesn't need that extra bit of Leway, because even with fewer years to compare to, his increase in fantasy points this year in comparison to his previous year's is LESS than Green's.
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Postby Free Bagel » Mon May 10, 2004 5:31 pm

VHawk15 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Is Orlandis Gary a "talented" RB - because when they plugged him in he achieved great numbers.


Just for your information, in Olandis Gary's best season, he had about 1100 yards and 7 TD's. Pretty good, but definitely not "great numbers."


It's worth noting that that was in only 12 games though. Projected over a full season that's 1448yds and 9TD's, and that's rushing only, not counting receiving yards.
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Postby NittanyLions » Mon May 10, 2004 5:41 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
NittanyLions wrote:Two thing:
1st: I think Jamal should be up at #6 or so, I doubt he will have another seaosn like last, but you cant deny his studliness of last year
2nd: Portis at 7 and 6? how can you rank him so low with two great 1st seasons, and the theory of hes out of denver so he sucks is BS, cause WAS should have a decent O-line, they carried stephen davis remember, having him that low is crazy, he just a stud himself


I disagree with you there.
I really dont think Portis is going to do as good outside of DEN. You can say its a BS theory if you want, but I can say the same about your theory that WAS carried Stephen Davis. However, to write off either theory as BS is simply narrow-minded.
Is it true that DEN is considered to have one of the best running game systems in the NFL? yes.
So could one reasonably argue that the RB numbers put forth from Denver are more a part of the system than the runner? yes - it can be argued.
Should the theory be written off as BS? at your own risk.

Portis is overrated IMO, but we'll see when the whistle blows...


Well, I dont think its BS eventhough I said it, but I also dont think it will effect him as much as everyone says, you just dont get that kin dof production without having talent
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Postby goleafsgo96 » Mon May 10, 2004 7:34 pm

i agree with nittany's areas of placements. i have portis at 4 (no matter where he is) and jamal at 6, with deuce in between them.
I think hes stated all my reasons why.
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