Green's rushing totals from his best year are only a ~30% spike (averaging 2002 season for 16 games) while Jam increased 55%. That looks like an outlier to me. Averaging Green out over 2002 gives you that nice bell curve you're looking for too. At the end of the day, I think Green plays in a weak run D division. Chicago might be better, but Cincy and Cleveland should be much improved. I highly doubt Jam rushes for 500 against Cleveland in 2004. People are ranking Lewis like he is gonna repeat his 2003 performance and I find that strange. Even Barry only rushed for 2000 yards once. It's a toss up between McAllister and Lewis who is the most overrated top tier RB right now...
I don;t agree with the premise that you either believe Jamal will go to jail or he won't. Everything is risk/reward. I think there's a 10% chance he goes to the clink but that degree of risk is enough to drop him down to 8 on my list. Every back has a certain amount of baggage, I just happen to think his is more than any of the others in the top 8.
If you believe there's even a 3% chance he won't play next year because of this drug crap you're completely paranoid.
How often do we see this? Professional player commits crime, sportscasters go on and on about how he might go to jail, people on website's use it as an excuse, and the player never ends up in jail.
What's the difference here? The case made against Lewis has far far far less backing to it then these things usually do. They have no real case, and even when there is a legitimate case and trial (which is very very very very very very very very rare), it STILL doesn't affect the coming year in terms of fantasy (see Kobe Bryant: all these idiots on ESPN sit here and talk about how it will affect him and blah blah as he throws up 30pts a game). These things never come to fruition.
I would say the chances of Lewis missing next year because of this are about the same as the chances that a satellite will fall out of orbit, collide with an Airplane, which crashes into a bridge that then falls on Ladainian Tomlinson and kills him. Which could also be said for anyone else in the top 10, so they all have about the same risk level in terms of not playing next year.
Interesting arguments. Some issues though. Some say that the fact Ahman has a good QB to open up the running game for him helps him, whereas others have pointed out that Baltimore are going to throw the ball more this season and this will HURT Jamal Lewis. This is a contradiction, which one is it? Jamal never had a decent QB last season and it didnt hurt him. People say that teams will focus on him more this season, you don't think teams focussed on Lewis from week 2 onwards last season? This argument doesn't hold. I think Bagel made a good point when pointing out that this will be only Lewis' 4th season, and it will be his second removed from a serious knee injury. There's no reason to believe that he has peaked.