This having been said, I would take Ahman over him in any draft. Barring injury, Ahman will rush for at least 1600 yards and 15 touchdowns. Ahman has a steadier fullback in William Henderson, and the entirity of his acclaimed O-Line for this upcoming season.
Free Bagel wrote:Brett Favre was there for all of Ahman's years, so it's not like it was anything different for him last year. If Ahman had put together his career averages without Favre, and then had a huge year this year, that would be one thing. But he didn't, all the other years, with Favre, with he still put up those numbers. The QB situation doesn't matter, Lewis showed he can do it without a QB. Last year Boller was a rookie, he'll only get better, and even if he doesn't, so what, that didn't stop him before...
I know that you are citing Brett Favre as a reason for Ahman's success only because it is in direct response to previous posts, and I agree with you that Favre is basically a "control" in this situation - and that the only influence #4 has is simply that since 1993, defenses have aimed to shut down Brett in order to shut down the Packers. You talk about Ahman's production being erratic, but there are very good reasons for these numbers. In fact, I'd say that 2003 was the first year that the cards really fell in his favor, because even though the Packers are generally a run-on-first-down kind of offense, the passing game has always been the staple, the pivotal ingrediant. Well that all changed in 2003. Instead of running out of passing formations, they started passing out of running formations. This contributed to Ahman's success - because 2003 was the first year in a really long time that you could see the Packers line up in a run formation and not know 100% for certain that they were going to run.
Free Bagel wrote:Of Ahman's 4 seasons he's been the starter, his second best year was 2001, where he had 300 fewer yards and 9 fewer TD's. His stats ordered by year are the following:
1st year: 3rd best year
2nd year: 2nd best year
3rd year: 4th best year
4th year: best year
Not exactly a steady progression...
You've also got to take into account that Ahman's first year as a starter was under the God-Awful coaching of Randy Rhodes. Mike Sherman comes in a year later, and Ahman shows studly promise. The next year, however, Ahman sits part of the season with injuries and is plagued by fumblitis when he does play. And of the two coaches, Sherman has much less patience and confidence in his runner than Billick does. If Ahman fumbles, he sits for the next series. If Jamal fumbles, the ball is handed off to him at the next possible opportunity. If Ahman busts a fatty 30-yard gain, they let him hobble over to the sideline and sit on the bench with an oxygen tank. If Jamal busts a fatty 30-yard gain, he's gonna hobble back to the huddle and get the very next handoff. I'm not positive of this one, because I'm not sure where this kind of research can be conducted, but I heard somewhere that of the 1500+ yard runners, Ahman by far averages the least amount of touches and downs played. (Although his yards-per-carry average is not the league's best...whatever sense that makes)
All I'm trying to say is that a hell of a lot more consideration needs to be given to all of the non-obvious agents working in this situation - and after said consideration is given, it seems glaringly apparent that Ahman will out-stud Jamal this year. Think about this:
* He's got a solid O-Line
* The Packers can and probably will win without Ahman, and the Packer offense is just simply not built around him, it is specifically designed to utilize his specific talents around the rest of the gameplan, and that's why he has so much success.
* Ahman isn't mixed up with drugs
* Ahman doesn't have to deal with ridiculous amounts of hype.
* Ahman is only going to be keyed-in upon for no more than half of the Packers' games - whereas Jamal is the focal point.
* Ahman has had his best offseason yet and is stepping into a leadership-type role as a veteran leader, which will motivate him.
In terms of Lewis' motivation - the things pushing him to succeed are much less team-oriented and much more individual-oriented. Jamal wants to silence critics who say he can't repeat his performance, wants to prove that even when he is the defense's focus, he'll still excell, and he wants to prove to people that he's not doing drugs. Those are all goals that are much easier to lose sight of than unselfish, team-oriented goals.
And that's not to mention that Musa Smith and Chester Taylor aren't nearly the quality of backups that Najeh Davenport and Tony Fischer are in Green Bay - Lewis can't feel as though he's got to consistently perform to keep the other backs on the bench - he's just got his own ego feeding his motivation.
I'm saying it now and you can disagree all you want, but if both rbs remain healthy for the entire season, Ahman Green will outperform Jamal Lewis in every category except for total number of carries - including fantasy points.