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Is Jamal Underrated?

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Postby TheBigBakedBean » Thu May 13, 2004 9:06 am

I don't think jail should be the first red-flag that comes up amidst these rumors of drug use. We all know that celebrities don't get punished as severely as the rest of the population, and additionally we know that in the court system, we don't favor double-punishment. The court system is going to see that he faces heavy fines as part of the requirements in the NFL's substance abuse policy (something that Jam has already been subject to in the past). I think the real concern here should not be jail, but rather lethargy - because getting mixed up in drugs, usually regardless of what kind, makes people care less and less about things like strength conditioning, performance at the work place, etc and more about getting high. If Jam has indeed been getting lit up, then his production is going to slow.

This having been said, I would take Ahman over him in any draft. Barring injury, Ahman will rush for at least 1600 yards and 15 touchdowns. Ahman has a steadier fullback in William Henderson, and the entirity of his acclaimed O-Line for this upcoming season.

Free Bagel wrote:Brett Favre was there for all of Ahman's years, so it's not like it was anything different for him last year. If Ahman had put together his career averages without Favre, and then had a huge year this year, that would be one thing. But he didn't, all the other years, with Favre, with he still put up those numbers. The QB situation doesn't matter, Lewis showed he can do it without a QB. Last year Boller was a rookie, he'll only get better, and even if he doesn't, so what, that didn't stop him before...

I know that you are citing Brett Favre as a reason for Ahman's success only because it is in direct response to previous posts, and I agree with you that Favre is basically a "control" in this situation - and that the only influence #4 has is simply that since 1993, defenses have aimed to shut down Brett in order to shut down the Packers. You talk about Ahman's production being erratic, but there are very good reasons for these numbers. In fact, I'd say that 2003 was the first year that the cards really fell in his favor, because even though the Packers are generally a run-on-first-down kind of offense, the passing game has always been the staple, the pivotal ingrediant. Well that all changed in 2003. Instead of running out of passing formations, they started passing out of running formations. This contributed to Ahman's success - because 2003 was the first year in a really long time that you could see the Packers line up in a run formation and not know 100% for certain that they were going to run.
Free Bagel wrote:Of Ahman's 4 seasons he's been the starter, his second best year was 2001, where he had 300 fewer yards and 9 fewer TD's. His stats ordered by year are the following:

1st year: 3rd best year
2nd year: 2nd best year
3rd year: 4th best year
4th year: best year

Not exactly a steady progression...

You've also got to take into account that Ahman's first year as a starter was under the God-Awful coaching of Randy Rhodes. Mike Sherman comes in a year later, and Ahman shows studly promise. The next year, however, Ahman sits part of the season with injuries and is plagued by fumblitis when he does play. And of the two coaches, Sherman has much less patience and confidence in his runner than Billick does. If Ahman fumbles, he sits for the next series. If Jamal fumbles, the ball is handed off to him at the next possible opportunity. If Ahman busts a fatty 30-yard gain, they let him hobble over to the sideline and sit on the bench with an oxygen tank. If Jamal busts a fatty 30-yard gain, he's gonna hobble back to the huddle and get the very next handoff. I'm not positive of this one, because I'm not sure where this kind of research can be conducted, but I heard somewhere that of the 1500+ yard runners, Ahman by far averages the least amount of touches and downs played. (Although his yards-per-carry average is not the league's best...whatever sense that makes)
All I'm trying to say is that a hell of a lot more consideration needs to be given to all of the non-obvious agents working in this situation - and after said consideration is given, it seems glaringly apparent that Ahman will out-stud Jamal this year. Think about this:
* He's got a solid O-Line
* The Packers can and probably will win without Ahman, and the Packer offense is just simply not built around him, it is specifically designed to utilize his specific talents around the rest of the gameplan, and that's why he has so much success.
* Ahman isn't mixed up with drugs
* Ahman doesn't have to deal with ridiculous amounts of hype.
* Ahman is only going to be keyed-in upon for no more than half of the Packers' games - whereas Jamal is the focal point.
* Ahman has had his best offseason yet and is stepping into a leadership-type role as a veteran leader, which will motivate him.

In terms of Lewis' motivation - the things pushing him to succeed are much less team-oriented and much more individual-oriented. Jamal wants to silence critics who say he can't repeat his performance, wants to prove that even when he is the defense's focus, he'll still excell, and he wants to prove to people that he's not doing drugs. Those are all goals that are much easier to lose sight of than unselfish, team-oriented goals.

And that's not to mention that Musa Smith and Chester Taylor aren't nearly the quality of backups that Najeh Davenport and Tony Fischer are in Green Bay - Lewis can't feel as though he's got to consistently perform to keep the other backs on the bench - he's just got his own ego feeding his motivation.

I'm saying it now and you can disagree all you want, but if both rbs remain healthy for the entire season, Ahman Green will outperform Jamal Lewis in every category except for total number of carries - including fantasy points.
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Postby slowkidz » Thu May 13, 2004 9:17 am

TheBigBakedBean wrote:I'm saying it now and you can disagree all you want, but if both rbs remain healthy for the entire season, Ahman Green will outperform Jamal Lewis in every category except for total number of carries - including fantasy points.


after all of that, it comes down to this last paragraph. and I agree 100%. ;-D
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu May 13, 2004 10:31 am

TheBigBakedBean wrote:And of the two coaches, Sherman has much less patience and confidence in his runner than Billick does. If Ahman fumbles, he sits for the next series. If Jamal fumbles, the ball is handed off to him at the next possible opportunity. If Ahman busts a fatty 30-yard gain, they let him hobble over to the sideline and sit on the bench with an oxygen tank. If Jamal busts a fatty 30-yard gain, he's gonna hobble back to the huddle and get the very next handoff. I'm not positive of this one, because I'm not sure where this kind of research can be conducted, but I heard somewhere that of the 1500+ yard runners, Ahman by far averages the least amount of touches and downs played. (Although his yards-per-carry average is not the league's best...whatever sense that makes)
.


You're far too caught up in the "real life" aspect of things. This isn't real life football, this is fantasy football. Every point you made in the above quoted paragraph is a point FOR Jamal, not for Ahman. If Ahman's coach has a quicker hook, that's good for Jamal in fantasy. If both of them have 30 yard runs and Ahman comes out, while Lewis stays in and gets another 15 yards, that's better for Jamal in fantasy, regardless of the reason. If both fumble, and Ahman sits out the rest of the quarter while Jamal gets 25 yards and a TD the rest of the quarter, that's better for Jamal, regardless of the reason. We're talking stats and pure stats here, yards per carry don't mean a damn thing. If they did, Ricky wouldn't go in the top 10 rounds, much less the top 10 picks, but he does, because they don't matter.

I'm just gonna ignore all the mumbo jumbo about motivation, because it's just that: mumbo jumbo that is completely relative. How do YOU know what Lewis or Green's motivation are? Did they tell you? No, you're just inferring. It could just as easily end up being that Lewis wants to win another SB and Green just wants a big paycheck, we don't know...

Further, again, this is fantasy. Who cares if the guy is a team player or selfish. Wouldn't you rather have the guy that gets the ball more because he's selfish? Blocking and being a team leader is great if your a packer fan, but it won't help your fantasy squad. Fantasy wise, if a guy on your team being selfish gets him better stats, it's a good thing for you.

Lastly, your entire post is a moot point. NEVER did I say Lewis would put up better stats than Ahman. The whole basis for my arguement was that KG said Lewis could not be a top 5 back because his performance last year was an outlier based on the stats he put up his previous year, and thus he would not repeat it, while at the same time he ranked Ahman as a top 5 back despite the fact that his performance last year was also an outlier (and statistically a larger outlier) last year based on his previous stats.

I was just saying it was a complete contradiction, like hypothetically saying "you can't rank Lewis top 10 because he tore his ACL two years ago," while at the same time ranking Edge (who tore his ACL the same year) in the top 10.
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Thu May 13, 2004 3:03 pm

i think he is overrated. he has had one great year. not to mention could have jailtime in his future. oh wait, seems like all pro athletes get away with their crimes.
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Postby TheBigBakedBean » Thu May 13, 2004 3:36 pm

Especially ones in Ravens jerseys...Though in the 90's it was the fellas wearing Cowboys jerseys.
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Postby smackthefirst » Thu May 13, 2004 3:47 pm

Good points coming from all sides on this one, but ill put it like this. Let Jamal slip to late again and ill be all over him. Even by his own admission, he ran with a hitch last year from the achilles inury, which is now fully healed.

Yeah tams are gonna gear up to stop him, but they did that all last year. I mean come on Cle. got ran out twice and were trying to do nothing but stop him the second time. This kid is a bruiser. And hes still young.

As far as the decision goes, it is tough if you have a 4-5 type pick. Thats why im all about trading back to around 8 this year, taking the one that slips through, and snagging a solid #2 on the come back.
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Postby CC » Thu May 13, 2004 5:07 pm

Yea, anyone else notice the quality of the defences he played last year?

Here are the bad teams he played: Cleveland (2x), Cincinnatti(2x), San Diego, Kansas City, Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle, Oakland

These are his stats against good defences:
Pitt: 15 carries for 69 yds, 1 TD
Jacksonville: 21 carries for 68 yards
Miami: 25 carries for 91 yards
San Fran: 19 carries for 78 yards, 1 TD
Pitt: 27 carries for 114, 1 TD

Against a decent run D:
Denver: 32 carries for 134 yards, 1 TD (nice game I'll admit)

All in all, against the bad teams (Denver included) on this list Jamal acquired over 1600 of his 2066 yards (11 games). Nobody expects him to be this good next year, but I bet he drops down to 1450 and 10 (roughly).
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu May 13, 2004 5:32 pm

Your definition of "bad," "decent," and "good," run defenses are questionable at best.

Since when is 7th out of 32 "decent" and 14 out of 32 "bad"?

In addition, the Packers (Ahman) played against only ONE team ranked in the top 10 in rush defense (Denver), and against ZERO of the teams in the top 5.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Thu May 13, 2004 7:03 pm

they have like no case against lewis, and you should know that unless they're murderers or rapists (see Rae Carruth or Mike Tyson, I believe) its very hard to prosecute a star athlete with little to no evidence. He wont miss a snap b/c of him being in jail
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Postby The Guru » Fri May 14, 2004 7:43 pm

Lewis is definatly underated.

Here's my order:

1. Holmes
2. LT2
3. Portis - Washington has 2 great tackles. There O-line is probably better then's Denvers. Gibbs is a RB coach, he feeds his RB's the ball. Portis will be his usuall stud self this year.
------small line------------

4. Lewis - The guy is a beast. If you watched his games last year he just dominated. If the Ravens had any kind of offense then he would have scored even more td's. Once Bolder got hurt there offense suffered, so this limited the chances of Lewis getting opportunites to score td's. Last year was his breakout season. He will continue along with similiar #'s this year. Raven's O-line is probably the second best line in football behind KC.
5. Green
---------small line---------

6. R Williams - He got 17 td's two yrs ago. He got 10 td's last year. O-line is improved, they drafted Carney in the first round.
7. S Alexander - He will end up with around 14 td's by year's end.
8. Duece - So overated! He only had 8 td's last year. I think he is a poor man's #1 RB. There is no way Ricky and Shaun both don't have better #'s next year.
---------Huge line---------------

The rest of these RB's are all #2's.....
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