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Torry Holt = Over-Rated?

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Postby kashikis » Tue May 11, 2004 10:05 am

I dont really think Chad Johnson will do as well as people think. I wouldn't expect an increase in his stats but a 1250 7 TDs isn't bad by any means.

I'd have the top 5

Moss
Harrison
Holt
Ward
TO


Chad is in the 6-10 range in the Horn, Mason, Moss, and Boldin group.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue May 11, 2004 10:30 am

aussieboy wrote:Why are you putting Holt below a WR who didn't reach Holt's numbers last yr and will have essentially a rookie QB throwing to him this yr? Are you just guessing or do you have a reasonable explanation for this. I'm not saying it won't happen im just curious to find out why you believe it will happen.


Simply because I think Johnson will be a Boldin type of player this yr with more skill. Palmer will look to him often in an offensive scheme that is going to have to play from behind on a regular basis. This obviously is more of a consideration of the state of the Bungals right now than anything else, but yes, I do think Johnson will have a great yr because Palmer will look for him more than most WRs in the league - the Boldin syndrome.

As for Holt - I do think he had a career yr, and am not going to bet on him repeating it - although the Bulger's fav target theory is a strong one. I think his TDs will decrease for a couple of reasons - one is the return of Faulk, the other reason is something that contradicts the Bulger theory. I think Bulger will be taught to try and spread the love more than he did last yr - a natural progression in the development of QBs.

One thing you have to understand Aussie - I am not the guy who is going to look at last yrs stats and think the players will repeat them. I consider situation to be much more valuable when trying to project performance than last yrs stats. I look at stats as the last page of a book - it shows the outcome, but never tells the story.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue May 11, 2004 10:50 am

The 'Holt being Bulger's favorite target' thing is kind of ironic, considering in the 2nd week last year when it was announced that Bulger would start, all the online fantasy articles said to grab Bruce because Bulger favored him over Holt much moreso than Warner did.

I suppose that comes from the notion that Bruce's big games in 2002 took place in those 7 games that Bulger started.
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Postby maddog60 » Tue May 11, 2004 12:12 pm

Free Bagel wrote:I suppose that comes from the notion that Bruce's big games in 2002 took place in those 7 games that Bulger started.


Weren't those 7 games the only big games the entire Rams offense had? Kinda skews the statistic a little bit.
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Postby Free Bagel » Tue May 11, 2004 12:29 pm

maddog60 wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:I suppose that comes from the notion that Bruce's big games in 2002 took place in those 7 games that Bulger started.


Weren't those 7 games the only big games the entire Rams offense had? Kinda skews the statistic a little bit.


Holt's numbers stayed consisten with the rest of his season, even dropped a little bit, while Bruce's numbers went up.
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Postby KingGhidra » Tue May 11, 2004 12:48 pm

There were a few major things keeping Holt from being THE guy in St. Louis.

1: Isaac Bruce was already established as THE guy.
2: Holt hadn't put himself on the level of being a TD threat.
3: Faulk took a large portion of TDs.

However..

1: Isaac Bruce is probably no longer THE guy and passed the torch to Holt.
2: Bulger seemed to look for him when they were inside the 20. Holt wasn't just a between the 20s guy anymore.
3: Faulk is no longer the stud he used to be unfortunately.

He seemed to develop quite the rapport with Bulger in the 2003 season. The presence of Bruce still helps Holt the same way Moulds helped Price. The few Rams games I saw last year, they always seemed to look for Bruce early and establish him. Once the defense was concentrating on Bruce, that's when they'd switch to Holt and he'd start piling on the yards and TDs.

However.

Steven Jackson might get a lot of goal line work, but Martz can be creative inside the 20. He definitely does the right thing using misdirection to get guys open. If Holt can get open, he'll see lots of TDs.

All said and done, I have no problem with someone taking Moss & Harrison over Holt. Both are more established stars while Holt's TDs may have been a fluke last season. OTOH, he may have put the last tool in his toolbox making him the complete receiver. He doesn't deserve to be taken past #3 though.
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Postby smackthefirst » Tue May 11, 2004 12:50 pm

Well Im not completely sold on CJ being a top Wr next year yet, but one thing I can give his situation is Plamer has a much better arm than Kitna did in terms of strength. If I remember correctly, CJ only caught one deep ball all last year and that one was tipped by a defender before he caught it. Simply put there is the chance that Palmer will be able to air it out more than Kitna did.
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Postby CC » Tue May 11, 2004 5:09 pm

I fully expect Holt to return to his 4-7 TD form prior to this year. He will have about 1400 and 6 next year IMO and that's not anywhere near enough for a 2nd round draft pick.

Give me:
Moss
Harrison
TO
Chad
Hines

all over Holt and most of them will come at a cheaper price.
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Postby Azrael » Tue May 11, 2004 11:14 pm

Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:I fully expect Holt to return to his 4-7 TD form prior to this year. He will have about 1400 and 6 next year IMO and that's not anywhere near enough for a 2nd round draft pick.

Give me:
Moss
Harrison
TO
Chad
Hines

all over Holt and most of them will come at a cheaper price.


I'm not quite sure what you mean by "come at a cheaper price". Perhaps in your analysis you think Holt should be drafted later? But I don't think he will be in most cases. He will probably be the 2nd or 3rd receiver drafted this year, strictly based on past performance, which sometimes is not a good tool but often the most often used.

On the other hand, I think Holt's number this year will be more reflective of his upcoming 2004 numbers rather than his 2002 and previous numbers. I think he understands the game better. I also remember seeing an ESPN interview where he described how he approached the game differently, studied film more, and worked harder, simply because he recognized that he was the No. 1 guy and needed to do that.

I think his maturity as a receiver, studying film, and more disciplined application of his skills will allow him to get closer to his 2003 #'s than previous years. With the offense he's in, I'd rank him top 3.
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Postby Str8 Pimpin-Vikings » Tue May 11, 2004 11:36 pm

With the way people are rating CJ...it should be called CJ=Over RAted but anyways Holt is a top 3 wr mine sgoes like this


MOSS


HOLT
HArrison

TO



CJ
HInes
Vikings ALL THE WAY!!!
Pepper..MoSs...Bennett

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