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QB : 38 as RB : 30

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Postby Guest » Wed May 12, 2004 11:04 am

Mercer Boy wrote:Did a little research...

Walter Payton had 1333 yds and 8 TD's in the 1986-87 season. He was 32 years old (I think...born in July 1954). :-)


Good call, yet you had to go back 20 years to find one. And that was the year the dropoff started. Both years preceding were better and the year after was terrible. Point being, Holmes is almost done. He'll probably have another good year this year but the risk is there. People tab him as a fairly risk free pick but I see him as one of the most risky. Soon a lot of people are going to be left holding the bag.
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Postby aussieboy » Wed May 12, 2004 11:06 am

He's not a car, he's a runningback. Check out the dropoff between Faulk's 2001-2002 seasons, did ya see that coming? Again, name me one back who produced big numbers after 31 .


I think what Poobah (why does that just sound wrong) is trying to say is that sure Priest is above that critical age of 30, however he hasn't had the carries that most RB of his age have endured. Thus whilst his real age is 30 his football age is probably around 28. Thus he is likely to produce for another couple of years yet, and IMO should be drafted first overall in fantasy leagues.
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Postby smackthefirst » Wed May 12, 2004 11:12 am

Heres a little something for you guys to look at if interested in this kinda thing. It is an older database (weve been doin this for years), but it does give you a good idea. Im working on getting a more updated version which ill throw up here when ready. Anyways heres the link:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/agedata.htm

Some things of note:
Very few QBs even make it to 38, with next to none making it past that age.
A few RBs that are exceptions to the rule of 30: Dorsetts best year came at 31, Payton did well until 32, and Riggins had his best year at 34.
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Postby Guest » Wed May 12, 2004 11:12 am

aussieboy wrote:
He's not a car, he's a runningback. Check out the dropoff between Faulk's 2001-2002 seasons, did ya see that coming? Again, name me one back who produced big numbers after 31 .


I think what Poobah (why does that just sound wrong) is trying to say is that sure Priest is above that critical age of 30, however he hasn't had the carries that most RB of his age have endured. Thus whilst his real age is 30 his football age is probably around 28. Thus he is likely to produce for another couple of years yet, and IMO should be drafted first overall in fantasy leagues.


I understand that but he's still got the wear and tear of 8 years of practices and workouts, games are only part of the equation. In a redraft I can see him still going top 2 until he gives a reason not to but I see a lot of people taking him top 2 in a keeper or dynasty. IMO he's got 2 years at best left and maybe only 1 at a stud level. I'm not trying to shake things up to piss people off, I just think the risk is higher than some.
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Postby TheBigBakedBean » Wed May 12, 2004 11:53 am

I wouldn't expect him to last past the November 7 game against Tampa Bay - he's gonna be to fantasy owners what Michael Vick was last year.
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