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Is this everybody's draft strategy?

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Postby maddog60 » Fri May 14, 2004 7:25 am

At some point you have to be flexiable in your strategy. Let's say you draft #2 spot.

1st round you take LT2, no brainer.
2nd round, lets say for sake of argument Moss manages to fall to here, or Harrison. Now, there are RBs available (Shipp, Martin, Staley, Westbrook, maybe a guy like Dillon), but they're all at the same comparative level. Whereas Harrison is leagues better than most elite WRs. It makes no sense to take a RB because you can get just about the same projected value if you wait until the 3rd round, whereas a guy like Harrison isn't gauranteed to be there, and no one else with his proven ability will be either.

Do you see my point?

Also, TEs you will find are horribly inconsistent. I'd almost always rather spend my 4th round pick on a team's #1 WR than on a TE, because that WR is more likely to produce 1000+ yards 7+ TDs.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Fri May 14, 2004 7:29 am

Shockey was injured through most of his sophmore season.

Heap had 850yrds and 6 td's in '02
shockey shows the potential to be explosive (i believe with a full season he can put up big #'s)
garcia has no real legitimate threat @ WR .. and will be looking for winslow alot...this guy can flat out play. I wouldn't put it past him to have similiar #'s to heap '02
gonzo's stats speak for themselves.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Fri May 14, 2004 7:31 am

maddog60 wrote:At some point you have to be flexiable in your strategy. Let's say you draft #2 spot.

1st round you take LT2, no brainer.
2nd round, lets say for sake of argument Moss manages to fall to here, or Harrison. Now, there are RBs available (Shipp, Martin, Staley, Westbrook, maybe a guy like Dillon), but they're all at the same comparative level. Whereas Harrison is leagues better than most elite WRs. It makes no sense to take a RB because you can get just about the same projected value if you wait until the 3rd round, whereas a guy like Harrison isn't gauranteed to be there, and no one else with his proven ability will be either.

Do you see my point?
.


In this case, i'd definitely exercise my "exception" rule.
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Postby aussieboy » Fri May 14, 2004 7:36 am

fantasyfiend wrote:Shockey was injured through most of his sophmore season.

Heap had 850yrds and 6 td's in '02
shockey shows the potential to be explosive (i believe with a full season he can put up big #'s)
garcia has no real legitimate threat @ WR .. and will be looking for winslow alot...this guy can flat out play. I wouldn't put it past him to have similiar #'s to heap '02
gonzo's stats speak for themselves.



I agree Winslow could be big. In fact i think he and not your prediction Julius will be ROY. However you said 1000 yards, if you had said 800 yards i wouldn't have found the need to make that post.
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Postby fantasyfiend » Fri May 14, 2004 7:49 am

aussieboy wrote:

I agree Winslow could be big. In fact i think he and not your prediction Julius will be ROY.


now thats just crazy-speak.
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Postby TheBigBakedBean » Fri May 14, 2004 8:18 am

fantasyfiend wrote:Julius Jones - Your '04 R.O.Y.


aussieboy wrote:I agree Winslow could be big. In fact i think he and not your prediction Julius will be ROY.


Well if we're going to speculate on ROY there's this 10-year old in my neighborhood that can throw a football with pinpoint accuracy and perfect spirals. And you should see this kid move - he can avoid the two-hand-touch sack like Vick and throw a strike on the run.

He'll be ROY in 2016.

Ok, so maybe that was a little obnoxious - but isn't it a little early to be making ROY speculation? Not to be the last to jump on the bandwagon, however, I'll throw in my two cents. I think that if Big Ben gets a chance to start early enough he'll be ROY, but if not, it'll go to one of the big recievers. Wouldn't be surprised if it goes to Reggie Williams or one of the relatively unhearalded but explosive WRs. Fitzgerald and R. Williams each have big-time recievers with one year's experience to split catches with, but then again there wasn't a reciever taken that you can guarantee will get many a ball thrown his way, save for Winslow II in Cleveland - but he's a TE anyway.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri May 14, 2004 8:30 am

Welcome to the cafe fiend.

Remember there are a ton of extremely experienced, knowledgable fantasy players around.

Going into the draft with a set strategy of drafting RBRBWRTEWRQB or whatever is flawed. Passing on a top WR for a rookie RB is obviously an "interesting" strategy, and if it works for you, then great. However, other strategies work for other people too. I think you will find that the most respected people around here normally will tell you to go into a draft with a flexible game plan since a draft is continuously changing. You never know when a star player is going to fall into your lap.

As for Winslow - If he were still available after the 6th rd then Id consider him. Otherwise, Id rather spend an early pick on the REAL top 4 TEs: TGone, Shock, Heap, and Sharpe.

For some great competition this season, check out the classified forum.
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Postby mig28 » Fri May 14, 2004 8:58 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote: go into a draft with a flexible game plan since a draft is continuously changing.


CM has illuminated the greatest axiom in FF here. Chisel this one in granite.
"Life's battles don't always go to the stronger or faster man. But sooner or later, the man who wins is the man who thinks he can." - Vince Lombardi
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Postby Azrael » Sat May 15, 2004 3:03 pm

mig28 wrote:
Cornbread Maxwell wrote: go into a draft with a flexible game plan since a draft is continuously changing.


CM has illuminated the greatest axiom in FF here. Chisel this one in granite.


I agree completely. I don't have any set strategy going into the draft but I may have a few possibilities sketched out to begin with based on my draft position. Strategies also may depend on how many teams are in your league, type of league, and scoring system. However, I do sort of have some rules of thumb (that I normally apply to 8-12 team "traditional" leagues) such as

1. Making sure I get one RB in the first 2 rounds. I've seen some of the mocks this year where somone took maybe Manning and Moss in the first 2 rounds. 2 top players but with not having the option to take your 1st RB until the end of the 3rd round, I feel this kind of dooms your team. I think you need alot more breaks to happen for you than if you would grab one solid RB in the first 2 rounds. There is a such thing as taking chances and then there is putting yourself in a hole from the get go and hoping a bunch of things fall into place.

2. I don't draft a QB in the first 3 rounds. I just feel that since I only have to start 1 QB and and 2 or more RBs and receivers there will typically be more value later at QB than RB and receiver.

This has changed a little this year though for me. With certain committee RBs breaking up (Hearst leaving SF, Dillon to NE, Staley leaving Philly) and certain teams getting better at RB (Detroit, Dallas, Washington) I think the RB is much deeper at the draft this year than it was last year. I also think that there will be better value at RB later this year (again, we're adapting our strategy) and that a number of guys who will get drafted in the 2nd round and early 3rd round, I don't want because I have certain concerns that lead me to believe that there will be players later on in the draft who will do the same or have more upside versus the guys who will be take early and are sort of capped out because of their situation or age.

Example This is just my educated opinion and people may disagree but I will stick by my reasons.

These are players who you will probably see taken in the 2nd or 3rd round who I will be staying away from and taking a different approach. This may change if I pick like last in the first round, because I typically like getting a RB in the first 2 rounds...anyways.

1. Marshall Faulk - People keep waiting and hoping he exhibits some semblence of his old studly form but his best days are behind him. Way too risky for me to be spending a 2nd round pick on. He's going to get hurt at some point. He hasn't played all 16 games in what 5 years. Factoring in that I also think Steven Jackson is going to find his way onto that field enough that it is going hurt Faulk's stats somewhat, he's just not worth the 2nd round.

2. Fred Taylor - Let's face it everyone. Last year's performance landed him in the top 10, 11 RBs this year. Factor in that Greg Jones will assume the Stacey Mack role and steal all Fred's short yardage TD's and you now have a recipe for a letdown. Don't look at last year's stats because he won't touch them this year. You'll need a lengthful injury to Jones for Taylor to be worth where he'll be taken.

3. Stephen Davis - We know that Carolina's offense is predicated around the run, we also know that if there is a featured back in that offense, he will get pounded 25-30 times a game. While it's nice to have a back like that, Stephen Davis is too old to handle that kind of workload at this point in his career. It really showed in the last half of the year. He only managed to play in 6 of the last 8 games and gained 100 yards + only once. If you had him last year, you know what I mean. He really screwed you when you were making that playoff run if you were fortunate to get that far. He played against horrible defenses during every week in the fantasy playoffs and did nothing. I don't see him topping what he did last year. Either they will be forced to work Foster into the game more often, giving him around 1/3 of the workload or Davis will break down early. The point being that he won't come close to what he did last year and again, not worth a 2nd Rd pick IMO.

4. Travis Henry - If Henry will get the bulk of the workload then he's a 2nd round steal. I personally think McGahee is way to talented and explosive to not have in the game. Keeping him on the sidelines would be a travesty. Mularkey will realize this and adjust the offense likewise. I envision something out of the Bo Jackson/Marcus Allen or Kevin Mack/Ernest Byner realms, ala Tecmo Bowl. Should work well for the Bills. Not for us.

Well I can't elaborate on others on my list such as Rudi Johnson, Tiki Barber, Kevan Barlow because other people need to use the hotel computer but guys in place of those I will be looking hard at are Julius Jones (he could go at anytime, you take your chances waiting on him but I think he'll make the 4th or 5th round), Michael Bennett, and Brian Westbrook. After taking one of these guys and hoping they outperform a 4th or 5th round pick, I'll try to steal handcuffs like Foster and S. Jackson hoping that the starter gets sidelined with a lengthy (but not serious) :-) injury.

The biggest thing I've learned over the course of my FF experience is that you need to take chances in FF to win. Ask most of the experienced players here and I'm sure they would tell that if you try to draft strictly by the cheatsheets, used a standardized strategy (RB, RB, WR, etc.) you'll either end up with an average team or a big disappointment.
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Postby Dan5328 » Sat May 15, 2004 3:44 pm

Personally, I agree with the strategy and would take it one step forward. I like to draft three Running Backs with my first three picks. Last year I ended up with LT, Tiki, and Jamal Lewis. The extra running back is great insurence and also great trade bait. I don't hold it in stone where as if Julius Jones were the best running back left in the second round, I'll grab a reciever. I also like to carry six running backs on my roster. Last year I grabbed Dominick Davis, Marcel Shipp, Corey Dillon, Curtis Martin and Michael Westbrook off the waiver wire and just let them sit on my bench until somone offered something that appealed to me.

I originally put in Jamal Anderson which was a mistake. I picked up Jamal Lewis with my third round pick. :~(
Last edited by Dan5328 on Sat May 15, 2004 7:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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