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Value of WR in 2-QB Leagues

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Value of WR in 2-QB Leagues

Postby FF Newbie » Fri May 14, 2004 8:37 am

I originally posted this on the keeper forum, but I decided to move it here because the question really has to do with two quarterback leagues in general and not only keeper leagues. It just so happens that this particular league is a keeper league. Mods, feel free to delete the other thread if need be.

Several of us here at the café have been discussing leagues that start 2 QBs and how it affects overall strategy. We held a mock draft at Antsports that was very successful. You can view the draft here. There were few computer picks until late in the draft, so it gave us a good idea of how position values are affected in this kind of a league.

One thing we noticed is that the value of wide receivers dropped notably, taking the majority of the hit from the increased value of quarterbacks. Running backs went slightly lower overall, but this also had to do with the fact that the league for this mock only started 2 RB with no flex position.

My question specifically has to do with a keeper league. It is a 10-team keeper league. We haven’t decided how many to keep yet, probably 5. I pick first and I’m going with LT. That means I’ll also have the #20 and #21 picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I’ve divided the players into tiers that I think are worth taking with these picks. Here they are by position:

C-Pep *
Vick *
Manning *
McNabb *
McNair
Hass

LT *
Priest *
Portis *
Green *
Alexander *
Deuce *
Ricky *
Edge *
Taylor *
Lewis *
Henry

Moss *
Holt
Harrison
Owens

I’ve also placed a * next to the players who will almost surely be taken before my 2nd pick. Note that Faulk and S. Davis just missed the cut due to age concerns and Barlow, DD, Rudi, Chad, and Boldin also missed because I don’t think they are proven enough to take before the above players in a keeper league. A lot of recent rankings have Henry rated a little below Barlow, DD, and Rudi, but he has proven himself much more than the other three playing through injury and showing he can carry the load for an entire season, so I am more comfortable taking him here. Lewis is here because I think he is valuable enough that I’d take him for just this season even if his legal troubles mean he can’t ever play again.

Our league starts 2 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, and 1 RB/WR, so getting back to my question, is it worth taking a WR here even though I need to fill 2 starting QB positions, 2 RB, and 1 flex that I’d like to fill with a RB? Depending on exactly who is left at the end of the 2nd round, I could end up going RB-RB-RB, RB-QB-QB, RB-RB-QB, RB-RB-WR, or RB-QB-WR. Obviously Moss is worth it, but he’ll be gone for sure, so the question really boils down to: assuming I take LT and a QB with my first 2 picks, should I really take one of Holt/Harrison/Owens over Barlow/DD/Rudi, remembering that this is a keeper league?

The need position-first part of me says I need to grab 3 RB and 2 QB with my first 5 picks, but the best player-first part says that I should take a WR with my third pick assuming I’m not happy with what’s left at the other positions. Taking it a little farther, what if Hass and McNair are both still there? Should I grab them both or should I go RB-QB-WR and take the chance that I can get another QB and another RB coming back in the 4th and 5th? One more option still is to take LT-Henry-WR and try to pick up 2 QBs in the next two rounds. What’s my best strategy here? Your thoughts?
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Postby mig28 » Fri May 14, 2004 8:54 am

Definitely an intriguing MD. I don't have much experience with the 2 QB set up, but I think you should not wait until round 4 or 5 to take your FIRST QB. After all, you wouldn't normally want Plummer/Bledsoe/Leftwich as your #1 signal caller, would you?
IF you went RB-WR-QB with your first three, you'd probably be looking at LT, a Hines Ward-caliber WR at worst, and a quarter in the Penny/Bulger/Brady mold. That's not too shabby.
After that, I think you should take your own advice and select values you can be happy with.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri May 14, 2004 9:02 am

First, if anyone falls through the cracks, you have to grab them, right.

Second, if I were you, I would want the best QB on the board with my 2nd pick. What I would be concerned with though, is that people will target the elite QBs early, leaving you without a great QB option with your 2nd/3rd pick. If that happens and you say, fine, I'll take whoever fell through - and pass on grabbing a QB there, by the time it gets back again, you could be looking at some very shakey QB options with your 4th/5th picks - great WR may be available there - but no QBs. Thats maybe a worse case scenario, but something to think about. That makes me think you have to grab a QB and the best available player with your 2nd/3rd picks.

Hope that made some sense.
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Postby FF Newbie » Fri May 14, 2004 10:35 am

IF you went RB-WR-QB with your first three, you'd probably be looking at LT, a Hines Ward-caliber WR at worst, and a quarter in the Penny/Bulger/Brady mold. That's not too shabby.

Actually, mig, if you look a little closer, you could do a lot better than that with your first 3 picks. If you noticed, my top tiers at each position just happen to come to a total of 21 players, meaning I can DEFINITELY get 3 of those players with my first 3 picks. Now, others drafting might have a different top-21 including guys like Faulk, Davis, DD, Rudi, Dillon, Barlow, Chad Johnson, etc., but let's just start with the worst-case scenario that everyone's top-21 is the same as mine. If that's the case, I don't get a choice of which ones to take, in essence, because I'll just take whoever's left. If the 6 QBs and the 4 WRs I listed are all off the board, that means I get 3 of my top-11 RBs and that'd be GREAT!

More realistically, most of the RBs will have been taken and I'll be left with some choice of McNair/Hass, Harrison/Holt/Owens, and Henry/DD/Rudi/Dillon/Barlow/etc. If you look at our draft, for example, the guy who took LT #1 could have grabbed McNair and Harrison at 20 and 21, but opted for McNair/Shockey instead (obviously a bad pick). Personally, I think an LT/McNair/Harrison three-some would be sweet, and realistic I might add, but the real question is whether or not I should take a receiver this high even though QB and RB are more need positions.
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Postby smackthefirst » Fri May 14, 2004 12:11 pm

Man I love 2QB leagues. The mock was great, im down for another whenever.

With this question, I ran a few quick numbers and came out with something like this that you may want to think about. Your league will start 20qbs, 25 rbs, and 45wrs. I just halved the flex position.

In the NFL I see 32qbs, 26 starting rbs (took into account possibility of RBBC), and 75 legit wrs (took into account some teams rely on 3rd wrs while some dont).

With this in mind I would go into your draft without question grabbing LT and then a qb and rb with your next two picks.

The only way I would take a WR is if one of the big three fell for some reason to this position. The only way I would take 2qbs is if you could get 2 of the big three right here. Neither of these scenarios is likely to happen. Then on your 4/5 picks Id go qb again and then wr or rb if a good one is there for the flex spot.

I just feel that in leagues like this the odds of finding a servicable wr are much higher than finding a servicable rb or qb with later picks.

Whens this draft gonna happen anyways?
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Postby mig28 » Fri May 14, 2004 3:15 pm

I tried to stay conservative, since I was going on the MD alone. Sorry if I didn't give the answer you were looking for.
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