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Need advice on a 16 team draft

Postby Dreadpaul » Sat May 15, 2004 12:04 am

I'm playing in a brand new 16-team dynasty league and am looking for advice from somebody with experience playing in a 16 team league. I draft 10th (and 23rd, 42nd, etc.) so am unlikely to get a phenomenal RB.

Thinking through how the studs of FF are likely to be distributed over 16 teams, it occurs to me that the pickings are going to be slim indeed.

Am hoping that somebody with experience can advise me on whether I should go ahead and get the two best RBs available with pick #10 and #23, or should I snag somebody like Moss/Manning/Culpepper with pick #10 and hope a RB is still available at picks #23 and #42?

Our scoring system is:
TD pass = 2
TD rush/Recept = 2
2pt pass = 1
2pt rush/Recept = 1
100 yards passing = 1
40 yards rush/receiving = 1
No penalties for fumble/interceptions

Also, in addition to the regular QB RB RB WR WR TE K Def lineup, we can choose to field a QB RB WR WR WR WR K Def lineup.

Thanks in advance!
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Postby r_singh_02 » Sat May 15, 2004 12:14 am

This has to be the WORST pick in a 16-team dynasty league because you cannot get a STUD RB and u dont get 2 picks close together... so thinking of this, the best thing to do is draft a STUD. With this you should draft Randy Moss, since you play 2-4 WR's. Then with the 23rd pick you can hope to draft a Kevan Barlow (unlikely to still be there) or Dominick Davis. This will give you the #1 WR and top 10 RB. In a case that Randy Moss is gone, you should draft the best RB availabe at the #10 position, possibly Edge (not likely going to still be there), or Fred Taylor. Your best chance of making the best team would be to get Randy Moss with the 10th pick.
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Postby Guttpuppy » Sat May 15, 2004 12:36 am

Simple...make an overall list regardless of position,cross'em off as they are picked,grab whoever is highest on your list when it's your pick.

Dynasty draft you gotta think young though,and keep an eye on positions that others are drafting,you may be able to work it into an early round steal.
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Postby jeru » Sat May 15, 2004 12:37 am

It kind of depends on how the first part of the draft goes, but I think it is also a huge risk to not grab a RB with that first pick and then have to depend on what will be available at #23, which could get very dicey for RBs.

It is conceivable that the 9 picks ahead of you will all go RB, with Priest, LT, Portis, Green, Alexander, Deuce, Lewis, Ricky, and Edge all going off the board. In that scenario, you have a very tough decision to make, because there's a clear falloff after those 9 backs are off the board, and if you want to go RB, you either have to go with an age/injury risk like Taylor, Faulk or SDavis, or a back that isn't fully proven like DDavis, Rudi Johnson, or Barlow. So, the decision is grab Moss here and give yourself a surefire stud, or gamble on one of the RBs. Very tricky decision.

I wouldn't even consider taking a QB at that pick because there is nowhere near the dropoff with QBs that there is with RBs, and taking Culpepper or Manning here is just not a bad value. To give you an idea of what will be available at your 23rd pick, here are the 22 players I'd see as likely to be off the board by then:

QB:
Culpepper
Manning
Vick

WR:
Moss
Harrison
Holt

RB:
Holmes
LT
Portis
Ahman
Ricky
Deuce
Alexander
Lewis
Faulk
Taylor
SDavis
Barlow
DDavis
RudiJohnson
Henry
Dillon

So, if you wait to grab a RB until your 2nd pick, you'd likely be choosing between Barber, Westbrook, Martin Bennett, or one of the rookie backs as your #1 back which could get pretty dicey. Another somewhat risky option would be to either grab Moss and then Owens, securing the best WR corps in the league, or Moss and then Gonzalez, giving you the best player at two fantasy positions. You'd then need to pray on some sleeper RBs working out, but if you get locked out of the top RBs, it almost would take a prayer to be competitive in this league.

If any of the top 9 backs slide to your 10th pick, you pretty much have to draft one of them. In fact, your best bet is to hope that one or more of the people drafting ahead of you grab Moss, Harrison, Culpepper or Manning. In my experience, at least one homer will go for Manning or Vick or something with a top 5 pick most of the time. If not, and everyone goes RB, you are pretty much screwed.
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Postby smackthefirst » Sat May 15, 2004 10:38 am

Id ahve to go RB's with your first two picks. You are right on the cusp of being able to get two legit starters. Youll have a chance on getting something like this I think:

First pick:
Taylor
SDavis
DDavis
Barlow
Henry

Second pick:
Bennet
Westbrook
Dillon
Shipp
JJones
KJones

Then you would be one of the few teams that have two legit starting RB's.
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Postby joester » Sat May 15, 2004 10:48 am

If the top 9 RBs are gone I would take Moss here and then grab the best available RB with the second pick.
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Postby The Guru » Sat May 15, 2004 6:50 pm

jeru wrote:It kind of depends on how the first part of the draft goes, but I think it is also a huge risk to not grab a RB with that first pick and then have to depend on what will be available at #23, which could get very dicey for RBs.

It is conceivable that the 9 picks ahead of you will all go RB, with Priest, LT, Portis, Green, Alexander, Deuce, Lewis, Ricky, and Edge all going off the board. In that scenario, you have a very tough decision to make, because there's a clear falloff after those 9 backs are off the board, and if you want to go RB, you either have to go with an age/injury risk like Taylor, Faulk or SDavis, or a back that isn't fully proven like DDavis, Rudi Johnson, or Barlow. So, the decision is grab Moss here and give yourself a surefire stud, or gamble on one of the RBs. Very tricky decision.

I wouldn't even consider taking a QB at that pick because there is nowhere near the dropoff with QBs that there is with RBs, and taking Culpepper or Manning here is just not a bad value. To give you an idea of what will be available at your 23rd pick, here are the 22 players I'd see as likely to be off the board by then:

QB:
Culpepper
Manning
Vick

WR:
Moss
Harrison
Holt

RB:
Holmes
LT
Portis
Ahman
Ricky
Deuce
Alexander
Lewis
Faulk
Taylor
SDavis
Barlow
DDavis
RudiJohnson
Henry
Dillon

So, if you wait to grab a RB until your 2nd pick, you'd likely be choosing between Barber, Westbrook, Martin Bennett, or one of the rookie backs as your #1 back which could get pretty dicey. Another somewhat risky option would be to either grab Moss and then Owens, securing the best WR corps in the league, or Moss and then Gonzalez, giving you the best player at two fantasy positions. You'd then need to pray on some sleeper RBs working out, but if you get locked out of the top RBs, it almost would take a prayer to be competitive in this league.

If any of the top 9 backs slide to your 10th pick, you pretty much have to draft one of them. In fact, your best bet is to hope that one or more of the people drafting ahead of you grab Moss, Harrison, Culpepper or Manning. In my experience, at least one homer will go for Manning or Vick or something with a top 5 pick most of the time. If not, and everyone goes RB, you are pretty much screwed.

That's some good analysis. ;-D

You should pray one of the top 8 RB's fall to you. If not taking 2 RB's with your first 2 picks might be the way to go.

Since it is a 16 team league and you'd be one of the only teams with 2 solid RB's. I would probably take 2 young RB's like Barlow or D.Davis with your first pick and then someone like Bennett or Westbrook with your second pick.
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Postby Arrowhead Nation » Sat May 15, 2004 7:14 pm

Last season I was in your situation, same kinda of league..16 team dynasty...we went QB RB RB WR WR WR TE K DEF

I had the 11th pick here is what I did...I took Peyton Manninga nd I had QB set for a long time...he is perhaps teh most sure thing in fantasy then I drafted DIllona nd Garner, but in the end of the year here is what I had for RB's

Dillon
Garner
Rudi
Mike Bennett
DOm Davis
Willis McGahee

SO I am set for a long time @ RB

My team went far last year with Manning, CHad jOhnson, BALT DEF and Peyton leading the way

I also grabbed Javon Walker, Ashley Lelie, DOnte Stallworth in thelater rounds as young WR....

One last thing...I found that in a very active deep dynasty league like your going into, no one team will dominate....parody reigned in our league up until our Super Bowl, so I would draft however you want, but at least get a RB in Rd 1 or 2.....BTW you may look @ my RB and say I was pretty bad for most of last year....but because of teh parody and the fact I had studs otehr places...I went deep in the playoffs...so RBs dont make or break a team in such a deep league
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