And if I were in your position, I'd grab spot #1 because then you guarantee yourself Tomlinson, and get back to back picks in rounds 2 and 3.
Another way to look at it is this: with pick #1, you also get picks #16 and #17. Alternately, you can take picks #2, 15 and 18. I'd argue that the value of moving between 15 and 16 is almost the exact same as moving between 17 and 18. Since I like Tomlinson a lot more that the 30 yr old Holmes, I'd snag pick #1.
Our purpose on this planet is to laugh. For in Hell we shall not be able to and in Heaven it would not be proper.