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Is this Fantasy Suicide

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Postby Dreadpaul » Thu May 20, 2004 3:08 am

Azrael wrote:
Dreadpaul wrote: For #11, Fred Taylor is expected to carry the ball more this year, so his yardage should improve.


I'm not sure where this idea comes from. I don't know how much more they expect him to carry the ball than 350 times. Especially now they have another Stacey Mack in Greg Jones who is going to steal his goalline carries.


You make a good point Azrael, so I did a little digging. With 345 carries in '03, Taylor was only exceeded by Ricky Williams (392), Jamal Lewis (387), Ahman Green (355) and Deuce McAllister (351). It would be difficult to increase # of carries substantially. At most, Taylor could be expected to increase his load by 3 carries/game to bring him up to the 390 level (approx 1800 yards if his '03 avg yards/carry holds).

My source for the Taylor expectations is Bart Hubbuch at The Sports Network who wrote...

Look for the Jaguars to use the Carolina blueprint on offense after watching the Panthers ride running back Stephen Davis to the Super Bowl last season. Jacksonville’s running game was abandoned a few too many times last season for coach Jack Del Rio’s liking. That appears likely to change this fall.
Fantasy Source spin: Taylor is coming off a career-best 1,572 rushing yards, and the Jaguars are eager to run the ball more after watching Byron Leftwich struggle with interceptions last season. The oft-injured Taylor now has played in 32 consecutive games, by far the longest stretch of his NFL career. (Bart Hubbuch for TSN)

After Azrael's comment, I checked Stephen Davis's stats and realized that he only had 318 carries for 1444 yards and 8TDs. Taylor, with is 345 carries, 1572 yards and 7TDs is already just as much a workhorse as Davis is... so Mr. Hubbuch's analysis seems somewhat flawed.
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu May 20, 2004 9:05 am

Dreadpaul wrote: After Azrael's comment, I checked Stephen Davis's stats and realized that he only had 318 carries for 1444 yards and 8TDs. Taylor, with is 345 carries, 1572 yards and 7TDs is already just as much a workhorse as Davis is... so Mr. Hubbuch's analysis seems somewhat flawed.


Well, for starters davis only played in 14 games last year. His carries projected through 16 games would raise it up to 363. Still not a whole lot more, roughly 1 carry per game more. However, this doesn't take into account the games that Davis left early due to injury, which was quite a few I believe.

Davis' backup, Deshaun Foster, had 113 carries. Toefield, Taylor's backup, had only 53. The difference here has alot to do with Davis' missed time from injury.

Basically, Davis had fewer carries, but was also in the game way less because of injuries. When he was in there, he got handed the ball more often than Taylor did when he was in there.
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Postby Homeless » Thu May 20, 2004 9:25 am

Hey dont think I havent tried to re-invent the wheel before now either, but based on my experience I have to strongly advise you against taking that path. Definately dont take a QB/WR combo, the only thing I would even consider over RB/RB is to take a RB/WR and then only if its Moss. ;-D
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Postby The Lung » Thu May 20, 2004 12:01 pm

smackthefirst wrote:I was actually in the same position in a mock over at antsports. I had pick 10. I started off taking Moss/Harrison. The draft is still running so I cant say how it finally turned out, but take a look if you want.

http://www.antsports.com/md/rosters.asp?LID=5988


Your RBs ended up as:

RB Michael Bennett MIN
RB Brian Westbrook PHI
RB Duce Staley PIT
RB DeShaun Foster CAR

If this was your actual fantasy team next season, it's tough to say how you would fare. No one can debate that you'd certainly be set at WR with Moss/Harrison, but who knows what will happen at RB. Will Bennett return to pre-2003 form? Will Westbrook split too much time with Buckhalter or get more carries? How will the Duce fare in Da Burgh? Will Davis stay healthy or will Foster see a lot of action? This could end up working out very nicely for you, but without a marquee RB, it could end up blowing up in your face.
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Postby Steel Curtain » Thu May 20, 2004 12:28 pm

I think it would be suicide if you drafted Culpepper then Manning or Manning then Culpepper. I wouldn't do that.

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Postby Dazedncnfz » Thu May 20, 2004 12:55 pm

3 years ago i did this...but in the first 3 rds...I got Garcia/Owens combo....and yes it worked...went to the playoffs...but I would not do it again or adivse you to do it with the first 2 rd only...

Qb/WR combos do work, but its a risk...and risking not getting a stud rb...esp in a 10 team league were you could have a 2 solid rbs...its just not a good idea...

if you really want a combo, go for it later...match up a WR with whoever you get as your starter...

EXP: say you go for Manning in rd 2...wait till rd 5-8 and get Reggie Wayne, hes not Harrison, but you get your combo if you want it that bad...
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Postby Azrael » Thu May 20, 2004 6:09 pm

Dazedncnfz wrote:
EXP: say you go for Manning in rd 2...wait till rd 5-8 and get Reggie Wayne, hes not Harrison, but you get your combo if you want it that bad...


If you are going for a WR/QB combo I think a good one to wait on this year will be S. Moss or McCareins and Pennington. This will probably cost you around 4th or 9th and 6th round picks. Then you can stock up on RB's in 2 of the 1st 3 rounds.

Note to anyone including myself. If you go in with a strategy that you want to get J. Jones as a starter as opposed to taking your 2nd RB early, make sure you don't have Shaun Alexander. They both have week 4 byes.
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