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Odds to win the Super Bowl

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Odds to win the Super Bowl

Postby Dreadpaul » Thu May 27, 2004 12:35 am

Ok, this may be a little esoteric for Fantasy Football... but it might have some value for a few folks. The following is the odds that Intertops.com (an offshore betting site) is placing to win the Superbowl next year. As an example of how to read it, you could place a $10 bet that the Eagles will finally win the big game, and if you're right, you'd win $70.

Intertops Super Bowl odds 5/26/04

New England Patriots 5.5
Philadelphia Eagles 7
Indianapolis Colts 8
Tennessee Titans 12
Kansas City Chiefs 15
St Louis Rams 15
Denver Broncos 17
Green Bay Packers 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Miami Dolphins 19
Atlanta Falcons 21
Baltimore Ravens 21
Carolina Panthers 21
Jacksonville Jaguars 21
Minnesota Vikings 21
Seattle Seahawks 23
Dallas Cowboys 26
New York Jets 29
Washington Redskins 31
Buffalo Bills 41
Chicago Bears 41
Cincinnati Bengals 41
New York Giants 41
Pittsburgh Steelers 41
San Francisco 49ers 41
Cleveland Browns 51
New Orleans Saints 51
Oakland Raiders 51
San Diego Chargers 51
Houston Texans 61
Detroit Lions 81
Arizona Cardinals 126

Ok, so I can already hear some of you asking, "What does this have to do with Fantasy Football?" Well, for starters, while it's all well and good for us football geeks to sit around chatting about who's gonna have a good season - the Intertops folks are placing real money wagers, not theoretical predictions. Therefore, this is a quantifiable way to estimate how people betting real money are predicting team performance is likely to turn out.

As an example of how this might apply to FF, I hear a lot of chatter about how much better Cincinnati is likely to do this year, especially offensively. Yet they're a 41-1 longshot to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, there's not a lot of folks predicting good things for either Tampa Bay or Miami (outside of Ricky), yet they're roughly 18-1. Thus, one might conclude either Cin's defense sucks, the folks at Intertops have made poor estimations of '04 performance, or perhaps Cin's offense won't be as powerful as some folks are predicting.

Anyhow, food for thought.
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Postby maddog60 » Thu May 27, 2004 8:05 am

Placing the Bucs that high up is a huge mistake. That team went to the superbowl on a defense built by Dungy, not Gruden's coaching skill. They lost a lot of players, and have serious needs on both sides of the ball. The Bucs will be lucky if they're not the bottom team in their division this year.
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Postby Homeless » Thu May 27, 2004 8:43 am

Aww come on, give us a bit more credit, its not hard to understand at all :-b and we often discuss betting here ;-D

An interesting post none the less. Thanks ;-D
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Postby Plindsey88 » Thu May 27, 2004 8:49 am

I wouldn't mind placing $10 on Detroit.

Sure, it's a long shot, but I could deal with an $800 return, and it's certainly a better risk than most of the other teams on the bottom 1/4 of that list...
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Postby Poobah » Thu May 27, 2004 9:14 am

You know, I'd love to turn a modest investment of $10 on my beloved Cowboys into $260, but I think I'm gonna keep that cash this year. Maybe :-?
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Postby Cupertino_11 » Thu May 27, 2004 9:32 am

Those look like some pretty generous odds.
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Postby SidelineQB » Thu May 27, 2004 9:58 am

Dungy did leave his mark on the Bucs but they didn't do any damage in the playoffs until Chucky came around. Give Gruden his due, he won a Superbowl. Dungy's still waiting for his.

Look at the Bucs division...who's really going to stop them?
Falcons are still putting things together, and no single person can turn a team into a division leader...even if it is Vick
Saints...december collapse
Panthers...they haven't changed much from last year, but every year a superbowl participant becomes mediocre and I don't see that happening to the Patriots

I think the Bucs will be a team to look out for in their division
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu May 27, 2004 10:27 am

Minnesota and Seattle look like smart money there, and you have to put 10 on Detroit as a longshot with those odds. I wonder what the odds are that these teams make the playoffs.

BTW - 49ers is a terrible value at 41-1 - Id much rather have Arizona @ 126-1.
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu May 27, 2004 10:32 am

SidelineQB wrote:Dungy did leave his mark on the Bucs but they didn't do any damage in the playoffs until Chucky came around. Give Gruden his due, he won a Superbowl. Dungy's still waiting for his.

Look at the Bucs division...who's really going to stop them?
Falcons are still putting things together, and no single person can turn a team into a division leader...even if it is Vick
Saints...december collapse
Panthers...they haven't changed much from last year, but every year a superbowl participant becomes mediocre and I don't see that happening to the Patriots

I think the Bucs will be a team to look out for in their division


Uh, the Bucs sucked last year (sub .500 if I can recall), and they've only gotten worse in the offseason...
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Postby bungle613 » Thu May 27, 2004 12:02 pm

give me $20 on the Vikes
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