K. Barlow -- Overhyped? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

K. Barlow -- Overhyped?

Moderator: Football Moderators

K. Barlow -- Overhyped?

Postby Warpigs » Wed Jun 16, 2004 8:27 am

Thought it would be fun to kick off a little debate on Kevan Barlow. A lot of good information can be shared in a thread where people are really trying to defend a player or team.

Barlow is an interesting player in that he definitely has the talent to be a solid fantasy contributor. Finally completely out of Hearst's shadow, Barlow will be the featured back and will get the lion's share of carries.

With everyone fantasy-wise looking for an edge, Barlow's recent jump to starter has a lot of fantasy sources toting Barlow as the next great sleeper and someone who should be had early in the second round (some even have him in the late first round).

However, you can't overlook the fact that he's on a team that will really struggle most of the year, at best. The Niners may have talent, but their experience level is around the Pop Warner level (ok, a little exaggerated, but you get my point). A brand new Quarterback and unproven wide receivers (at least ones that have yet to step into elite status -- sorry Conway groupies) will have trouble mastering the chemistry that NFL players get from battle in actual games. Defenses will key on that, which means stacking against Barlow -- who won't be running behind the most steadfast of offensive lines.

What really will hurt Barlow's numbers this year is the Niners defense. Most teams will run up a small lead early in the game, and before long, SanFran will NEED to turn to a more vertical passing game and abandon the run. There aren't too many teams that the Niners will be able to hang with -- and Barlow's numbers will bear the brunt of that.

Some of you may start pulling the LT2 arguement out of your hat -- that Tomlinson makes it happen with a miserable team and racks up incredible fantasy numbers in spite of his poor environment.

For anyone thinking this will be a valid arguement, I'm sorry to pop your bubble. Barlow isn't an LT2. If he was, he would have sent Garrison Hearst packing a while ago.

What I'm trying to say is that Barlow isn't someone you should go into a draft targeting. If he somehow falls through the cracks and you can get him fairly cheap as a third back, that's fine. However, I wouldn't expect him to be a solid No. 2 option. There are a number of other players (Corey Dillon, Dominick Davis, even perhaps Westbrook) that are in better situations and will be able to capitalize on them.

Just an opinion. I'm curious what the Niner fans think.
Image
Warpigs
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerCafe Spotter
Posts: 3054
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 20 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Jun 16, 2004 9:23 am

Warpiggy - I couldnt have said it better myself.

Avoid - Barlow isnt LT2.
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5924
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Vikes_Fan2823 » Wed Jun 16, 2004 9:47 am

I think everyone can agree here that he is isn't LT2, but I do think he will be a decent #2 RB this year. He will probably see 300+ carries, due to the poor recievers and inexperienced QB's. So, even at 3.5 yards a carry, thats 1050 yds rushing right there. He is also a good recieving RB. Last year, he had 20 catches for 170 yds(8.5 ypc). Look for him to double his receptions, at least, because the inexperienced QB's are gonna want to dump it off on the safe pass to the RB.

I also think that somewhere down the road, maybe by Week 8, Brandon Lloyd will emerge as a solid receiver, along with Cedrick Wilson emerging as a playmaker. Rashaun Woods is IMO a good rookie reciever, and maybe Curtis Conway can bounce back. :-o
They may not have the best recievers, but the certainly do have depth. And you probably won't see that great TE Jed Weaver out there too often, :-b so the 49ers could run quite a few 4 WR formations. The opposing defenses just can't ignore these people. I'm willing to bet that Barlow will get 30-50 carries while the 49ers are in 4 WR sets. He could probably get 5.5 yards a carry there, which makes the possiblity for 275 yds on a sixth of his carries.

And there really isn't anyone to take away his touchdowns, with the loss of Garrison Hearst, so he could probably get 11 Total TD's(rec/rush).

So, LT2, certainly not. But a solid #2 RB? If he gets 1050 rushing, 550 receving, and 11 TD's, than yes.
16-team PPR Keeper League
QB: T. Romo, V. Young
RB: M. Turner, B. Wells, T. Hightower
WR: A. Johnson, J. Ford, N. Burleson, A. Roberts, J. Simpson
TE: D. Clark, J. Cook
K: R. Gould
D/ST: Cardinals
Vikes_Fan2823
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Graphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 1122
Joined: 16 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: A Vikings fan in Michigan

Postby moochman » Wed Jun 16, 2004 9:56 am

Talking out fo my a** here because I don't follow the 9ers and don't know what their line looks like. If they have a solid O-line and Rattay can come back and play well Barlow should be a real solid #2 RB. The 9ers offense isn't going to disappear just because of TO's abscence. They run a down field passing game which will help open up the run game, allowing for big chnk yardage plays once Barlow gets pass the line of scrimmage. It will also open up the flats for Barlow to catch dump off passes. The real question for me is can Barlow handle being a feature back? He has had injury issues and does fumble more than you would want for your main guy. I'm betting that he can and will put up >1,300 yards and >9 TDs.
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16300
(Past Year: 80)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Postby 9er Fan » Wed Jun 16, 2004 10:21 am

What really will hurt Barlow's numbers this year is the Niners defense. Most teams will run up a small lead early in the game, and before long, SanFran will NEED to turn to a more vertical passing game and abandon the run. There aren't too many teams that the Niners will be able to hang with -- and Barlow's numbers will bear the brunt of that.

Actually, the 49'ers should have one of the better defenses in the NFC this year. On defense they added more than they subtracted, and they were decent last year. Their offensive line won't be that much worse than last year. Deese was hurt much of last year anyway, and they love draft pick Smiley. At QB, Rattay's injury is a concern. If he is healthy and good to go, I don't see him as a significant downgrade from Garcia. One thing not often mentioned when QB is discussed was Garcia's rushing TDs. Last year, I believe he had 7. Rattay will not steal nearly the number of goal-line carries that Garcia did.

The biggest issue in my mind is the WR corps. If they don't have a couple guys emerge as threats, the 49'ers could see a healthy dose of "shut down the running game" defenses, and although LT and J. Lewis don't seem to mind 8 in the box, I'm not ready to annoint Barlow as the next LT or Lewis yet. I've seen Barlow ranked around 12-15. That sounds about right. Personally, I'd still take him over guys like Rudi and D. Davis.
9er Fan
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1863
Joined: 27 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Portland, Oregon

Postby Warpigs » Wed Jun 16, 2004 10:24 am

Vikes_Fan2823 wrote:I think everyone can agree here that he is isn't LT2, but I do think he will be a decent #2 RB this year. He will probably see 300+ carries, due to the poor recievers and inexperienced QB's. So, even at 3.5 yards a carry, thats 1050 yds rushing right there. He is also a good recieving RB. Last year, he had 20 catches for 170 yds(8.5 ypc). Look for him to double his receptions, at least, because the inexperienced QB's are gonna want to dump it off on the safe pass to the RB.


Having 300-plus carries doesn't mean that he'll automatically be an OK option at RB. Ricky Williams owners from last year can testify to that. PLus, what you don't address here is how long Barlow can handle getting pummelled by a defense prepared to attack him time and time again. He has yet to even turn in a full season -- not to mention one being slammed around every time he touches the ball. That's got to wear on him at some point.

And hoping by a week 8 or so that Brandon Lloyd or someone else steps up isn't going to help the people hoping for No.2 back production from day one. They'll be buried in the standings by then (unless they have other scoring options), and probably after eight games of running into a brick wall, Barlow won't be around to enjoy the space created when his receivers finally get their act together.

Your stats are all assuming that Barlow will last all season without losing time to injury. To expect someone who has yet to fill an all-season feature role to hold up under all the extra pressure is a bit of a stretch, IMO.
Image
Warpigs
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerCafe Spotter
Posts: 3054
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 20 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Warpigs » Wed Jun 16, 2004 10:27 am

moochman wrote:Talking out fo my a** here because I don't follow the 9ers and don't know what their line looks like. If they have a solid O-line and Rattay can come back and play well Barlow should be a real solid #2 RB. The 9ers offense isn't going to disappear just because of TO's abscence. They run a down field passing game which will help open up the run game, allowing for big chnk yardage plays once Barlow gets pass the line of scrimmage. It will also open up the flats for Barlow to catch dump off passes. The real question for me is can Barlow handle being a feature back? He has had injury issues and does fumble more than you would want for your main guy. I'm betting that he can and will put up >1,300 yards and >9 TDs.


Still, a lot of "ifs" involved for someone many are considering drafting in the second round. I don't know the status on Rattay, but last I heard, it wasn't good. And even if Rattay is able to play, are we ready to annoint him as a reliable QB? You say it best when you question his injury issues and fumbling concerns. It's hard to project any stats on a guy who has a high likelihood to miss some playing time at some point.
Last edited by Warpigs on Wed Jun 16, 2004 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
Image
Warpigs
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerCafe Spotter
Posts: 3054
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 20 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Warpigs » Wed Jun 16, 2004 10:30 am

moochman wrote:Talking out fo my a** here because I don't follow the 9ers and don't know what their line looks like. If they have a solid O-line and Rattay can come back and play well Barlow should be a real solid #2 RB. The 9ers offense isn't going to disappear just because of TO's abscence. They run a down field passing game which will help open up the run game, allowing for big chnk yardage plays once Barlow gets pass the line of scrimmage. It will also open up the flats for Barlow to catch dump off passes. The real question for me is can Barlow handle being a feature back? He has had injury issues and does fumble more than you would want for your main guy. I'm betting that he can and will put up >1,300 yards and >9 TDs.


Plus, I wouldn't expect the offense to just disappear without Owens. It had problems last year WITH Owens. Now, not only Owens is gone, but so is the experienced Garcia, Tai Streets, possibly Rattay for a little bit at least and who knows what else by the time the season kicks in. Those thinking Conway will somehow be a star must have missed his performance last year in an offense he should have been successful in (Jets - even after Pennington returned).
Image
Warpigs
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerCafe Spotter
Posts: 3054
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 20 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby awwchrist » Wed Jun 16, 2004 10:38 am

Well I know they lost Ron Stone. My question is...is Ron Stone the type of Oline player that wasn't going to be missed after his departure...or was there an attempt to resign him?
Image
________________________________________
26-13
Only 3 leagues this year. No sense in rooting for everyone in the NFL.
awwchrist
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Mock(ing) DrafterInnovative MemberSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9433
Joined: 22 Oct 2002
Home Cafe: Football
Location: see that 1:hidden? That's me.

Postby maddog60 » Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:51 am

I have to agree that he's overhyped. There's just too many variables, and he's in a bad situation.

If Tim Rattay tursn out to be a legit starter ...
If Tim Rattay comes back in time from his injury ...
If Brandon Lloyd can emerge as a WR threat ...
If Smiley can alleviate the free agent o-line losses ...
If Barlow can handle a full seasons load ...
If defenses dont heavily blitz the young QB and take away the passing game ...
If defenses dont stack 8 guys in the box every time against him ...
If the 9er arent playing from behind most of the time ...

The list goes on. The fact is they're rebuilding, and RBs on teams rebuilding their entire offense generally do poorly. The 9ers gutted their's getting rid of their starting QB, RB, and 2 WRs in addition to losses to the o-line. They'e hurting, they may very well have trouble fending off the cardinals for 3rd place in their division. And, 1000 yards is not a solid #2 RB. Anthony Thomas had over 1000 rushign yards last year.
maddog60
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 9758
Joined: 18 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Next

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 11:02 hours
(and 44 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact