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The 2nd Rd Dilema

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The 2nd Rd Dilema

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Jun 17, 2004 5:01 pm

I have noticed that there is a ton of uncertainty about the value of picks typically going in the 2nd rd currently, and would like to get some input on this problem.

Sure, 1st rd RB - thats easy. After that, it becomes pretty murky. Here is a list of current antsports avg draft results after the 10th pick:

11. Harrison
12. Taylor
13. Faulk
14. Holt
15. Owens
16. Barlow
17. DDavis
18. SDavis
19. Culpepp
20. Dillon
21. Manning
22. CJohnson
23. RJohnson
24. Vick
25. Henry
26. Ward

Now, what if we take a look further down the board:

33. Bennett
36. Westbrook
39. Shipp
49. Staley
52. Garner
57. C. Martin
62. T. Jones
67. Duckett
72. C.Brown

Now here's my dilema - why should I take a questionable RB like Barlow, DDavis, SDavis, or RJohnson in the 2nd rd when I can get similar risk from many of these guys being drafted in the 3rd rd or later? Is Westbrook or Staley that much worse than DDavis?

I guess the heart of this is value. Convince me that R. Johnson is 2 rds more valuable than Staley or 3 rds more valuable than CMart. C. Brown is the undisputed starter in TEN, but he's worth a 7th rd pick while SDavis, who will lose goalline carries, is a high 2nd rounder in many drafts?

The way it looks for me right now is that if I cant get Taylor, Faulk, Dillon Henry, or one of the top 4 WRs, Im in trouble, because after that I see a drop in value.

Does anyone see what I am talking about here, or am I just rambling incoherently?
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Postby KingNothing31685 » Thu Jun 17, 2004 5:15 pm

I see what you are saying. I'm kinda feeling the same way this year with the 4th pick in one of my leagues. after Portis/Green i'm struggling on who to take in that slot.

The mock drafts started before it was announced Stephen davis would be RBBCing. So that data isn't accurate entirely. Who would you take instead of Rudi or DD? if you have the 4th pick and you take Green when it comes back around your options will prob. be

Rudi, DD, Barlow...maybe he seems to be falling
Manning,Vick.....depends if anyone jumps
C Johnson, ward, TO

I wouldn't grab a QB here as it would leave you weak at WR/RB.
if you take any of those RB's you still may get a #1 reciever like S. Moss, J smith, S smith in the 3rd

and i would rather have Green, DD/rudi/barlow, S. Moss
then Green,Cjohnson/Staley

it just feels better looking at the other names. Hope i'm helping and not hurting....As i said i'm trying to sort this out for myself too!
fantasy football is alot like sex. Everyone thinks they are the best, but most people really don't know what they are doing.
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Re: The 2nd Rd Dilema

Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jun 17, 2004 5:33 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
I guess the heart of this is value. Convince me that R. Johnson is 2 rds more valuable than Staley or 3 rds more valuable than CMart.

I can't. If we were talking a 5th to 7th round spread I could, but I can't justify Rudi going in the top 20-24 picks overall.

C. Brown is the undisputed starter in TEN

Is he?
Ourlads still has George listed as the starter.

but he's worth a 7th rd pick while SDavis, who will lose goalline carries, is a high 2nd rounder in many drafts?

7th round pick wouldn't be bad at all. There's a lot of talk about Davis and Foster splitting carries 50/50 etc etc and usually I ignore things like that, but I think this situation is different. Foster saw plenty of action in the playoffs and Super Bowl which leads me to believe that Fox is confident in turning the reigns partly over to Foster. Same situation for Chris Brown.

In my mind I keep waffling on whether Davis is worth it in the second round.


Does anyone see what I am talking about here, or am I just rambling incoherently?


Yes.
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Postby Azrael » Fri Jun 18, 2004 8:11 am

I hear ya. It seems to me the type of position I draft in the 2nd round (always RB or WR) kind of lays out how I am going to approach grabbing some of my starters.

I have been contemplating what I call the "Julius Jones" draft. He is always available in the 5th round. If you are convinced that Jones will be the man throughout the year in Dallas and put up respectable numbers, you can create a stacked team ahead of him. This has been working very well especially when I draft early or earlier in the 1st round. I get a stud RB in the 1st, usually a top 4 wideout in the 2nd. Then I grab Gonzo in the 3rd. Then I hope McNabb is there in the 4th. If not I grab another good wideout. Then Jones. Then maybe my QB in the 6th. In the end, I'm usually thinking "well if Jones comes along I'll be pretty darn tough to beat"

Or instead of Gonzo in the 3rd, maybe, maybe, I grab Vick or C-Pep if they are there. But I strongly caution this as I am not a huge fan of drafting a QB early.
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Postby Flux » Fri Jun 18, 2004 8:31 am

Azrael wrote:I hear ya. It seems to me the type of position I draft in the 2nd round (always RB or WR) kind of lays out how I am going to approach grabbing some of my starters.

I have been contemplating what I call the "Julius Jones" draft. He is always available in the 5th round. If you are convinced that Jones will be the man throughout the year in Dallas and put up respectable numbers, you can create a stacked team ahead of him. This has been working very well especially when I draft early or earlier in the 1st round. I get a stud RB in the 1st, usually a top 4 wideout in the 2nd. Then I grab Gonzo in the 3rd. Then I hope McNabb is there in the 4th. If not I grab another good wideout. Then Jones. Then maybe my QB in the 6th. In the end, I'm usually thinking "well if Jones comes along I'll be pretty darn tough to beat"

Or instead of Gonzo in the 3rd, maybe, maybe, I grab Vick or C-Pep if they are there. But I strongly caution this as I am not a huge fan of drafting a QB early.


Ive done the "Julius Jones" draft a couple times and I have loved what i ended up with.

The first time i tried it my 1st 5 picks were Priest, Ward, CJ, JJ, and Bennett (didnt want to give it all to the rookie)

After that I never took a RB in the 2nd rd unless it was Faulk, Taylor or Corey Dillon (I am high on him, I hate him for being a dick in Cinci, but I cant deny that the man has a ton of talent)

The "Julius Jones" draft also showed me that a Bennett/Westbrook type player can be there for you in later rounds, and I believe they have just as potential to put up huge #'s as a Rudi or a DD, but actually have less downside in that they are less likely to bust.
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Postby nsulham » Fri Jun 18, 2004 8:35 am

Azrael wrote:I hear ya. It seems to me the type of position I draft in the 2nd round (always RB or WR) kind of lays out how I am going to approach grabbing some of my starters.

I have been contemplating what I call the "Julius Jones" draft. He is always available in the 5th round. If you are convinced that Jones will be the man throughout the year in Dallas and put up respectable numbers, you can create a stacked team ahead of him. This has been working very well especially when I draft early or earlier in the 1st round. I get a stud RB in the 1st, usually a top 4 wideout in the 2nd. Then I grab Gonzo in the 3rd. Then I hope McNabb is there in the 4th. If not I grab another good wideout. Then Jones. Then maybe my QB in the 6th. In the end, I'm usually thinking "well if Jones comes along I'll be pretty darn tough to beat"

Or instead of Gonzo in the 3rd, maybe, maybe, I grab Vick or C-Pep if they are there. But I strongly caution this as I am not a huge fan of drafting a QB early.


Like Flux I've also kicked this idea around in my head, although not fully thought it out like you guys have.

Definitely interesting and provactive. My curiosity is piqued by the idea of waiting on a RB and grabbing two top WR's then ending up with a Jones-Bennett-Westbrook type. The only fault I can see with that is you're putting all your hopes into one of those 3 being there and if they're gone, you could be screwed out of a #2 RB.
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Postby Flux » Fri Jun 18, 2004 8:36 am

I also want to add to this discussion that I believe there are some VERY VERY good #3 WR's this year who could put up #2 WR or even #1 WR stats.

This could promote taking a Gonzo even earlier or a QB in the 3rd or 4th if a good one dropped.
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Postby Flux » Fri Jun 18, 2004 8:39 am

nsulham wrote:Like Flux I've also kicked this idea around in my head, although not fully thought it out like you guys have.

Definitely interesting and provactive. My curiosity is piqued by the idea of waiting on a RB and grabbing two top WR's then ending up with a Jones-Bennett-Westbrook type. The only fault I can see with that is you're putting all your hopes into one of those 3 being there and if they're gone, you could be screwed out of a #2 RB.


I was scared of being screwed, so I took a very solid #3 RB. If things worked out, I could easily have 3 top 20 guys and be sitting very well w/ trade bait. Like i said in my last post, w/ a deep pool of #3 WRs going RB/WR/WR/RB/RB isnt going to kill you, especially if you are like me and dont like drafting QB's until later (unless there is a steal)
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Postby Guest » Fri Jun 18, 2004 8:43 am

What do you consider a steal at QB?
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Postby Buckychudd » Fri Jun 18, 2004 8:45 am

CbM, I think you're on the money here....drafting is about value. Right now everybody is going overboard with the 2RB theory, and you can exploit that to some extent......especially in leagues that start 3 WRs.

But damn KG.....why do you keep recruiting this type of person into the MIKL? The competition is going to be stacked!
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