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The 2nd Rd Dilema

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Postby ff_dude » Fri Jun 18, 2004 5:23 pm

Think of it this way:
The best TE in FF or the 18ish RB

and i said QB or TE
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Postby vidlaw » Fri Jun 18, 2004 7:45 pm

At pick 22 I think I would look at a top 5 QB if available and a Westbrook/Bennett/Rudi at #27.
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Postby Kensat30 » Mon Jul 05, 2004 8:44 pm

There's definetly a very valid concern here. I see a lot of draft scenarios unfolding where a lot of early pick teams are left with bad value at the 2nd/3rd turn.

Basically I would look at it this way, there is no way I'm spending my early 3rd/late 2nd round pick on a WR in this scenario unless I get a Ward or Chad Johnson. There is a ton of value at WR in the middle rounds so you can afford to wait at that position. I see a lot of the top10 picks at WR this year as question marks that may or may not produce better than WRs drafted a couple rounds later.

QBs are a similar story. You can get a good starter in the middle rounds so there is no need to go after one here. I'm not saying it is totally out of the question to pickup the first QB here, however you wouldn't be getting much of an advantage considering where the other QBs are drafted.

TEs are a slightly different story. There is only 1 TE in the NFL that produces like a WR and your only chance to draft him is now. I actually feel that Gonzo holds similar value drafted in the 2nd round than the top QB. The fact of the matter is, you can probably get him with your 3rd rounder. Definetly worth the pick IMO.

RBs are the key here to what your strategy should be though. With an early first round pick your #1 RB should be SOLID. You can afford to field a weaker #2 because of this reason. The only problem is that the RBs will get significantly weaker much faster than the other positions.

Bennet, Westbrook, Barber, etc. will be drafted off the hook in the 3rd and early 4th rounds. Depending on the league, guys like Thomas Jones and Lee Suggs may be the only decent RBs left on the board by the time the late 4th rolls around.

I like starting the run on the borderline RBs in the late 2nd. It may cause other owners to draft RBs like crazy when they realize what kind of pattern is developing. The more RBs drafted early, the more selection will be available at WR/QB for you in the late 4th.
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Postby VHawk15 » Mon Jul 05, 2004 11:29 pm

As many of you know, I'm a pretty big RB-RB man. This year, I definitely don't mind going RB-RB and then grabbing Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, or Hines Ward in the 3rd. So in the 2nd round, I would be more than happy to grab Domanick Davis, Kevan Barlow, Fred Taylor, or Corey Dillon. But after that, it gets a little foggy. Because, in my opinion, those four (and maybe Rudi Johnson as well) are definitely at least a round better than Westbrook and Staley. With those two situations, Buckhalter and Bettis scare me.

That sad, I also really like the Julius Jones draft. Because I really think that he'll be able to put up solid numbers, especially when my line-up is virtually stacked around him at every position. The only risk there is if someone else is even higher on Jones and snags him in the late 4th or before you do in the 5th. Because if that happens, I don't believe there's another RB of that caliber available in the 5th. So I'd imagine the best bet would just be to grab another WR and hope for a trade.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Jul 06, 2004 10:20 am

Im not the one that bumped this thread - but while its here let me revisit the dilema since it hasent really been answered.

Pay attention now - here is the situation:
A very competitive 12 team league.
No one drafts QBs early.
You have the #1 pick and you choose either Holmes or LT.
ALL of these players are GONE by the time you get your #2 pick:
Rd 1: Holmes, LT, Portis, Deuce, SA, Green, Edge, Lewis, Ricky, Moss, Harrison, Taylor
Rd 2: Faulk, Holt, Owens, Dillon, Henry, DDavis, Barlow, Rudi, CJohnson, Ward, Bennett

It is now your pick. Who do you take?
Do you see the problem? Other than taking the 1st QB off the board - a questionable value strategy - there is nothing. There is a gaping value hole in this position. No RBs worth drafting and no WRs worth drafting. I can see taking a QB and TGone, but even still, you are leaving the first 3 rds with the best player at 3 positions, but only 1 RB and no WRs. And if you think about passing on the 3rd teir RBs at this spot - you can be assured that when you pick again at 4.12/5.1 the RB options will be even less - at that point the Joneses (KJ or JJ) would be a steal if they were available, and if you are looking at starting a rookie RB as your #2 you are in a world of hurt.
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Postby victoryassured » Tue Jul 06, 2004 10:43 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Im not the one that bumped this thread - but while its here let me revisit the dilema since it hasent really been answered.

Pay attention now - here is the situation:
A very competitive 12 team league.
No one drafts QBs early.
You have the #1 pick and you choose either Holmes or LT.
ALL of these players are GONE by the time you get your #2 pick:
Rd 1: Holmes, LT, Portis, Deuce, SA, Green, Edge, Lewis, Ricky, Moss, Harrison, Taylor
Rd 2: Faulk, Holt, Owens, Dillon, Henry, DDavis, Barlow, Rudi, CJohnson, Ward, Bennett

It is now your pick. Who do you take?
Do you see the problem? Other than taking the 1st QB off the board - a questionable value strategy - there is nothing. There is a gaping value hole in this position. No RBs worth drafting and no WRs worth drafting. I can see taking a QB and TGone, but even still, you are leaving the first 3 rds with the best player at 3 positions, but only 1 RB and no WRs. And if you think about passing on the 3rd teir RBs at this spot - you can be assured that when you pick again at 4.12/5.1 the RB options will be even less - at that point the Joneses (KJ or JJ) would be a steal if they were available, and if you are looking at starting a rookie RB as your #2 you are in a world of hurt.


This feels like a bad dream...I find myself sitting in this exact position, except I have a feeling a QB or 2 may go before my 2.12/3.1 picks which may give me something to choose from. I am interested to hear some comments regarding this situation...
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Postby goleafsgo96 » Tue Jul 06, 2004 10:49 am

Ousmagic wrote:still gonzo at the last pick of 2nd round or 1st pick of 3rd round imo is a bad pick i would take either rudi or sdavis and take either hines ward or chad johnson if any of those guys are then go for cpepper or michael bennett or westbrook its too early to grab gonzo


for sure.. i dont think anyone here was talking about taking gonzo late second or very early third, at least i hope not.
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Postby Flux » Tue Jul 06, 2004 10:55 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:You have the #1 pick and you choose either Holmes or LT.
ALL of these players are GONE by the time you get your #2 pick:
Rd 1: Holmes, LT, Portis, Deuce, SA, Green, Edge, Lewis, Ricky, Moss, Harrison, Taylor
Rd 2: Faulk, Holt, Owens, Dillon, Henry, DDavis, Barlow, Rudi, CJohnson, Ward, Bennett



I would probably take the chance on S. Davis at this point and follow it up w/ Gonzo or C-pepp. Im down on S. Davis like a lot of people, but we are all going off pre-training camp chatter that he will split time 50/50. Davis is still the workhorse of that team and even if they split the carries, Davis will be the TD vulture.

Then with my next 2 picks I would probably feel like I had to go after another RB, and pick up my first WR.

This is a very interesting scenario here, I can tell you on here what I would do, but if that decision came to me, I really have no clue. Probably whatever I was thinking looked good at that point.

Actually, I think I would take Gonzo for sure w/ my 3rd rd pick, since he pretty much acts as another WR for your team.


So after all that rambling I would take S. Davis and Gonzo :-b

(stop hurting my head Cornbread!)
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Postby Flux » Tue Jul 06, 2004 10:59 am

goleafsgo96 wrote:
Ousmagic wrote:still gonzo at the last pick of 2nd round or 1st pick of 3rd round imo is a bad pick i would take either rudi or sdavis and take either hines ward or chad johnson if any of those guys are then go for cpepper or michael bennett or westbrook its too early to grab gonzo


for sure.. i dont think anyone here was talking about taking gonzo late second or very early third, at least i hope not.


Gonzo as an early pick in the 3rd isnt that bad in a 12 team league.

Ousmagic said he would take Davis or Rudi - Rudi is already taken

Then he mentions Bennett/Westbrook/Ward/CJ - all are gone but Westbrook.

And if you take S. Davis, I dont think it would be in your best interest to take Westbrook w/ your 3rd rd pick. Then you have 3 RBs, only one is a stud, and you will be behind in all of the other positions.

Really your only options are S. Davis, Gonzo, C-pepp (Westbrook if you are feeling really lucky). I definitely wouldnt touch a rookie that early either ;-7



Edit: In the info I gathered for the avg cafe mock draft rankings for a 10 team league QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE ---- Gonzo went #28 overall on the average. Taking him w/ the 1st pick in the 3rd round is 25 overall. Thats not a stretch at all IMO
Last edited by Flux on Tue Jul 06, 2004 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Tue Jul 06, 2004 11:00 am

goleafsgo96 wrote:
Ousmagic wrote:still gonzo at the last pick of 2nd round or 1st pick of 3rd round imo is a bad pick i would take either rudi or sdavis and take either hines ward or chad johnson if any of those guys are then go for cpepper or michael bennett or westbrook its too early to grab gonzo


for sure.. i dont think anyone here was talking about taking gonzo late second or very early third, at least i hope not.


I dont think Ousmagic understood the scenario. The only player he mentioned taking that would still be available is Westbrook.

What WOULD you do goleafsgo?


Flux - I think you are onto something - SDavis and either Gonzo or CPepp is really your only option. Certainly no WR is worth having here. I might even suggest taking back to back RBs like Sdavis and Westbrook.
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