IMO S.O.S does not become a factor until your team has already been drafted and the season is under way. By midseason whoever the top defenses are becomes a lot clearer picture. The only thing I will really avoid is a player that has a very tough perceived schedule in weeks 14-16, when the playoffs are happening. And even then this is not going to stop me from taking who I feel is the most talented player left on the board.
Take for instance last year's NE super bowl defense:
Their numbers were basically nothing less than awesome:
Less than 90yd/game rushing allowed, Less than 15 ppg allowed.
Go back to 2002 one year removed from the 2001 Super Bowl title and note the differences:
More than <b>135yd/game</b> rushing allowed
,more than <b>21ppg</b> allowed.
Defenses, just like offenses, change from season to season. Predicting a runners effectiveness versus a S.O.S based on last years numbers is a lot less accurate than you think. New England may seem like a no-brainer defense that will shut down opponent offenses, but could a return to 2002 form be in store for them?
Oh yes, and because a team is rated highly defensively, that automatically means that they will jump out to an early lead. Of course! Tteams can't run the ball if they're down a touchdown early! Why you didn't I think of that earlier!