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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Jun 21, 2004 9:31 am

Again - I still have to disagree with you guys. I agree that many good defensive teams change from yr to yr, but at the same time, You can be pretty accurate in judging who those top D teams will be each yr. SOS does measure from last yr, so it isnt that great in predicting this yr, but a simple look over a schedule, and you can get a good idea if its an easy one or a hard one.

Once again, what we are doing isnt solely using SOS or an updated SOS(tweaked for the upcoming yr) to determine a players value. However, if you have two similarly ranked players and one has a tough schedule and one has an easy schedule, would it be a consideration as to which one you take? Of course it should. Thats the point.
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Postby nola_saint » Mon Jun 21, 2004 10:18 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Do you seriously want your 2nd rd RB facing this schedule:

@TB
NE
@ATL
IND
@NYJ
MIA
BAL
@PIT
@CLE
DEN
@TEN
DAL
@WAS
PIT
CLE
@BAL
@NE
BUF
NYG
@PHI

I count 4 games on this schedule where they aren't either playing a top 10 defense (Bold), or a team that could pretty easily make the top 10(Red).

BTW - good luck Rudi.


TB is weakened (no Sapp and Lynch-their leaders despite age), ATL is awful CLE is bad, IND, NYG, WAS and Pitt are average at best. That's 8 decent matchups, plus PHI lost both DBs which could hurt there run D.
NE, BUF, NYJ, DAL are tough, the rest are better than average.

As someone else posted though, Ds change year to year and you never know.

Take the best player that's there and fits your needs.
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Postby Warpigs » Mon Jun 21, 2004 10:20 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:Again - I still have to disagree with you guys. I agree that many good defensive teams change from yr to yr, but at the same time, You can be pretty accurate in judging who those top D teams will be each yr. SOS does measure from last yr, so it isnt that great in predicting this yr, but a simple look over a schedule, and you can get a good idea if its an easy one or a hard one.

Once again, what we are doing isnt solely using SOS or an updated SOS(tweaked for the upcoming yr) to determine a players value. However, if you have two similarly ranked players and one has a tough schedule and one has an easy schedule, would it be a consideration as to which one you take? Of course it should. Thats the point.


Exactly. The whole thread wasn't a discussion of SOS to drop top-tier players lower based on a tough schedule. You still take the studs at the top of the draft. But it would be silly to think that SOS isn't factoring into fantasy sports at all. Edgerrin James (not to beat a dead horse) is a prime example of that. We all want an edge heading into draft day. Many in our leagues may be leary of Edge as an injury threat and still not sure where Edge will wind up this season as a player. I don't know, either, but looking at all the variables, it adds up to optimistic expectations. Edge's easier SOS IS a factor in all this.

SOS gives you one more small piece of ammo to help you prepare for the coming season. The person who collects the most "ammo" will have the better chance in dominating their fantasy leagues.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Jun 21, 2004 10:50 am

nola_saint wrote:TB is weakened (no Sapp and Lynch-their leaders despite age), ATL is awful CLE is bad, IND, NYG, WAS and Pitt are average at best. That's 8 decent matchups, plus PHI lost both DBs which could hurt there run D.
NE, BUF, NYJ, DAL are tough, the rest are better than average.

As someone else posted though, Ds change year to year and you never know.

Take the best player that's there and fits your needs.


Yeah - actually those are my rankings - not last yrs final rankings. I do a pretty good job at finding who the top 10 Ds will be every yr, so I am confident in this. Been doing it for a while now.

TB is still top 10. Sapp is overrated, and Lynch is over the hill.
ATL apparantly is flying under your radar.
IND avg at best? I'll say all the defensive moves they have made in the last 3 yrs has been paying off and will continue to under Dungy.
WAS is a darkhorse to make the top 10 under Gibbs and the talent they have - although losing Bailey really hurts this team.
PHI lost the DBs because they could afford to - the backups are underrated, not to mention the addition of Kearse. Still potentially a top 10 D.
PIT is gonna be a pretty solid D team - Id say average at worst.

I guess my point is we disagree with defenses, fair enough.
SOS is obviously a good tool to use - feel free to use it or not.

Valuing fantasy players is kind of like picking fruit in the store. In determining which apple to take, you look at them, feel them, squeeze them, smell them, maybe even taste them if given the opportunity. All of these things are then used to determine which to take. If you choose not to smell them, well, thats one less thing you can use to judge whether its the right apple for you.
If you choose not to look at SOS, thats fine, but the person who does look at SOS has made a more informed decision given everything else is equal.
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Postby nola_saint » Mon Jun 21, 2004 11:21 am

[quote="Cornbread Maxwell

Valuing fantasy players is kind of like picking fruit in the store. In determining which apple to take, you look at them, feel them, squeeze them, smell them, maybe even taste them if given the opportunity. All of these things are then used to determine which to take. If you choose not to smell them, well, thats one less thing you can use to judge whether its the right apple for you.
If you choose not to look at SOS, thats fine, but the person who does look at SOS has made a more informed decision given everything else is equal.[/quote]

Absolutely we agree on SOS, I find it very helpful in the later rounds, especially since it worked out well last year for me.

As far as the D rankings, yeah we just look at it from different points of views, I've see ATL and Tb all the time being a Saints fan(proud enough to say it aloud). I just think Atlanta is a little small, and TB will need better corners despite a solid pass rush and MLB. You're right about INDY though, I overlooked them a bit. The rest I stand by until the teams, players, coache, etc. prove me different. It just one reason I love this game.
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Postby MadScott » Tue Jul 20, 2004 3:39 am

Where SOS comes into play in my draft is trying to decide between a couple of guys that are fairly close. Last year, I pretty much pegged that Ahman Green or Deuce McAllister were going to be the 2 RBs that dropped into my lap in the first round. At first glance I was inclined to take McAllister without hesitation. I then stumbled across the SOS rankings for last season and noticed that NO's schedule the last 4 weeks of the season was brutal, packed with strong defensive teams. GB on the other hand had a lot more favorable schedule even with then AFC champ Oakland on the schedule. Decision made, I went with Green and rode him into our playoffs.

While I don't think it's an absolute indicator of how a team will perform, I believe that it is a fairly decent barometer at the very least.
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Postby fantasyswami » Tue Jul 20, 2004 10:31 am

MadScott wrote:Where SOS comes into play in my draft is trying to decide between a couple of guys that are fairly close. Last year, I pretty much pegged that Ahman Green or Deuce McAllister were going to be the 2 RBs that dropped into my lap in the first round. At first glance I was inclined to take McAllister without hesitation. I then stumbled across the SOS rankings for last season and noticed that NO's schedule the last 4 weeks of the season was brutal, packed with strong defensive teams. GB on the other hand had a lot more favorable schedule even with then AFC champ Oakland on the schedule. Decision made, I went with Green and rode him into our playoffs.

While I don't think it's an absolute indicator of how a team will perform, I believe that it is a fairly decent barometer at the very least.


Excellent example. This is exactly how SOS is intended to be used.
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Postby marvin88 » Tue Jul 20, 2004 11:16 am

i only look at sos towards the end of the draft. i don't think it effects any of the ff studs at all. i do think it has merit for the later rounds though.
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