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Portis' Downfall

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Not sure or sort of agree
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Total votes : 59

Postby Carolina Culpepper » Sun Jun 27, 2004 10:23 pm

Ahman Green at number three in my mind, ahead of Portis. Portis is changing teams, and whether you agree or disagree, the majority opinion is that Denvers o-line is better than the Skins. The adjustment factor of a new team, and the o-line difference is enough to say that chances are good that Portis will not have the same numbers as last year. Ahman on the other hand, and it pains me greatly as a Packer hater to say it, could actually have a better year. He, not Favre, is clearly the offensive show in GB. Each year that Brett gets older, Ahman's role increases. Well guess what, Brett is another year older and Sherman has decided that Ahman's propensity to fumble is currently not as bad as Favre's risk of throwing interceptions, both of which occur at high rates! Result is that GB is running more and more each year, and their passing game is getting shorter and more conservative each year which means more catches for Ahman. 2004 should be another big year for him. No doubt I take Ahman over Portis.
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Postby hands24 » Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:03 am

This doesnt have much to do with the topic but the best backs last year were in the AFC West. Portis, Tomlinson, and Holmes. Garner could be decent but got hurt and just kind of went down hill (with the rest of the raiders). I just thought that was a little unique how they are all in the same division. And to think some people call the AFC the passing league when really the division that dominates running the most is in the AFC.

Now on with the topic: Many seem to think Portis can hack it in Washington but could Holmes hack it on a different team with a worse line. I think Holmes isnt so great, he just has or had an unreal line. He has the frame of a runningback and all but i dont see him doing well with another team.
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Re: Portis is overated

Postby MCG321 » Mon Jun 28, 2004 1:21 am

bagobonez wrote:Portis is overated. #3? I have LT2, Priest, Ahman and Shaun Alexander over him, and you can make a case for McAllister as well.

Think about it, when was the last time a running back didn't have good numbers in Denver? Even Olandis Gary cracked 1,000 yards behind that line, but then he went to Detroit and he can't even crack his way into the starting lineup.

Yes, yes, Portis has all the talent in the world, but he's not running behind a great offensive line. Look at Ricky Williams, he has all the talent in the world too, but take his offensive line away and his production dropped from 1,800 yards and 17TD's to 1,300 yards and 9 TD's and his APC dropped from 4.8 to 3.5.

You can't just plug Portis in behind the Washington offensive line and expect there to be the same kind of holes that there were in Denver. It's just silly.

And the main reason you shouldn't draft Portis is because he weighs 185 pounds, and he's one hit away from the IR. He's constantly getting nagging little injuries.

The defenses in the AFC West (Oakland, KC, SD) are hardly like the defenses he's going to face in the NFC East (Dallas, Philly).

Is he a top 10 fantasy back? You betcha. Does his stock drop because he's a Redskin? You betcha.


Olandis Gary suffered some injuries and is obviously not the same player he was at Detroit. Should we bring back Terrell Davis and see if he can crack Detroit's starting lineup, too?

Comparing this situation to Miami's is really comparing apples and oranges. In Miami, you had a team with an average QB with an average receiving group. They basically had to run, and defenses knew it. In Washington, their receivers are very strong and Brunell still has a lot left in him. Defenses will have to respect the pass a lot more against Washington than they did against Miami last season.

Portis isn't 185 pounds, so let's throw that out.

Finally, as much as it hurts to say, Philly's run D is nothing special. Granted, it's better than it was last year, but Portis should look forward to playing them. The defenses will be a bit harder, but I don't expect that to affect him that much.
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Postby Poobah » Mon Jun 28, 2004 11:09 am

I take Ahman at 3, Deuce at 4, and Portis at 5, but I don't think that means he's "slipped" appreciably. Just that I only have him on pace for 1400 yards rushing, 30 catches, and 15 total TD. I have Green and McAllister in for more than that, that's all.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Mon Jun 28, 2004 11:16 am

Poobah wrote:I take Ahman at 3, Deuce at 4, and Portis at 5, but I don't think that means he's "slipped" appreciably. Just that I only have him on pace for 1400 yards rushing, 30 catches, and 15 total TD. I have Green and McAllister in for more than that, that's all.


I fall in this camp too. Im not predicting Portis to bust or anything, just that maybe 5+yds a carry is a bit much to expect again.

The new situation surrounding Portis makes this an unanswerable question right now. As many have said, there are positives and negatives about Portis and his new situation. What remains to be seen is which will affect his performance the most - his skill, his new team's strategy, his new Oline, or his health.
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Postby CC » Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:31 pm

Carolina Culpepper wrote:Ahman Green at number three in my mind, ahead of Portis. Portis is changing teams, and whether you agree or disagree, the majority opinion is that Denvers o-line is better than the Skins. The adjustment factor of a new team, and the o-line difference is enough to say that chances are good that Portis will not have the same numbers as last year. Ahman on the other hand, and it pains me greatly as a Packer hater to say it, could actually have a better year. He, not Favre, is clearly the offensive show in GB. Each year that Brett gets older, Ahman's role increases. Well guess what, Brett is another year older and Sherman has decided that Ahman's propensity to fumble is currently not as bad as Favre's risk of throwing interceptions, both of which occur at high rates! Result is that GB is running more and more each year, and their passing game is getting shorter and more conservative each year which means more catches for Ahman. 2004 should be another big year for him. No doubt I take Ahman over Portis.


Even though you said you would take Ahman 3rd (so would I) I really have to disagree with the fumbling comment. I don't know how many times I've said this, but once Ahman stopped wearing those black rubber armbands (slick due to sweat) he stopped fumbling. I don't think he had one fumble after he took those off.
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Postby Adlaw » Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:48 pm

So I'm not thrilled he's with someone else this years, and I agree to a point that he'll drop off a bit. But he is talent pure and simple. Now we get to see if he can study enough to learn the system. Of course that shouldn't be hard for a running back under Gibbs.
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Postby bagobonez » Mon Jun 28, 2004 11:35 pm

Pete123444 wrote:Portis will be as good or better in Washington.


I think this is about the silliest thing I've ever read in my life.

Better stats behind a weaker O-line against stronger defenses?

How?
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Postby hands24 » Mon Jun 28, 2004 11:40 pm

Thats been my point the entire post!
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Postby bolkonsky_ffc » Tue Jun 29, 2004 4:02 pm

Although this is the quintessential example of apples and oranges, I remember reading preseason posts in the Baseball Cafe about how there was no way Soriano would tail off despite a few yellow flags (like Portis).

Now we have another player with a reasonable amount of talent moving from one a great offensive system to a good one and people act exactly the same. "Oh, this guy is bigger than the system". Um, not quite. In fact that is very rarely the case.

Think bigger picture, Portis apologists. The man is not Walter Payton. He is a young, shifty back with speed. And, although some of us would like to think that is the rarest combination of physical attributes on earth, the truth is that there are probably 15 backs in the NFL right now who could have done what CP did in that system (in their early or best years).

Name them? OK....LT, Priest, Ahman, Alexander, J. Lewis, S. Davis, Deuce, Faulk, Dillon, R. Williams, T. Henry, C. Martin, E. James, E. George, J. Bettis. And that doesn't even include M. Bennett (who has been to a Pro Bowl, but is still unproven...could just be an injury-prone burner in a good system) or a handful of other guys who might very well do the same thing (O.Smith, R.Johnson, D. Davis).

This game is about having a good coach and a bevy of large, strong men willing, ready and able to protect you from another group of large, strong men who want to separate your head from your torso. Do your fantasy team a favor and strongly consider situations as much as individuals in Football. After all, there are less than 15 players in this league at the "skill" positions that would have success no matter where they landed.

I apologize for the rant and any condescension, be it real or perceived.
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