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Re: well

Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jul 01, 2004 12:34 am

bagobonez wrote:Your argument that rushing stats are consistent is a stretch. What about McNair last season? He was the guy who could be counted on for 400 rushing yards every season, but suddenly he only had 138 last year. Culpepper's rushing TD's dropped from 10 TD's to 4.


Your fondness for using extreme examples to prove your point is getting tiresome. You take a guy who for six seasons in a row was averaging in the 400-500 yards per season mark, then look at the last season in an attempt to prove me wrong. No one is saying that QB rushing yards are a lead pipe lock, just that they are more consistent over a period of time.

If I based my rankings on what I would project a player to do if he was guaranteed to stay healthy, Vick and McNabb would move up the boards quite a bit. In fact, Vick would likely be on top. I don't like drafting QB's who have a tendency to get injured, which both McNabb and Vick do. Yes McNabb started all 16 games last year, but he got hurt in the playoffs which doesn't show up on the stat sheet.


No player is guaranteed to stay healthy. Period. If you think otherwise, you don't understand football. Period. You probably can't even find 15% of starting quarterbacks the last 10 years who start 5 consecutive seasons healthy. It's rare. It's close to unheard of. Favre and Manning did it. I can't think of any others off the top of my head. The average is probably 12-13 games per season. A QB who, more often than not, turns in 14-15 game season is quite above average.

When you look at it, pretty much EVERY quarterback that is considered a "scrambling" quarterback misses some time due to injury every year. Find me a "scrambler" that can be counted on to start 16 games each year.


I think either side can claim a handful that have played 2 full 16 game seasons recently, but it'd be the exception. Also, what is your definition of a "scrambler". Aaron Brooks has above average rushing ability, as does Quincy Carter, but neither are prolific runners.

Steve McNair's highest rushing yards per game years were also the two back to back years he started 16 games. In fact, outside of the one season he missed 5 games, he's played at least 14 of 16 games, which is far above average for QBs. Period.

Brad Johnson, Kurt Warner, Chad Pennington, Tommy Maddox, Drew Bledsoe, David Carr, Kyle Boller, Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb are all guys who have missed time the last few seasons due to injury. I don't think you'd consider any of them "scrambers". Now for all the guys I didn't name, lets revisit them in another four seasons. How many of those 10 or so do you think will have played 64 straight games?

What does this prove? That QBs are fragile. Period.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Thu Jul 01, 2004 7:13 am

What is this? McNabb gets his leg broke in a freak injury, and so does Vick later, and all of a sudden bagobonez labels them an "injury risk". Taking them 6th and 9th? Are you freaking kidding me? Vick is 3rd and McNabb is no later than 5th. You remember McNabb before he got hurt in 2002? He was pretty amazing. No matter how many stats are brought up against your point, you respond with extreme examples that don't prove anything. Its the same thing in the Alexander vs Portis thread. You really enjoy losing arguments don't you?
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Postby CC » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:13 am

McNabb was one of the best QBs in the NFL over the last 8 weeks of the season last year. He struggled out of the gate due to a well-documented thumb injury. Plus look how effective he was in 2002.

Extrapolated 2002 stats:

Passing Yards - 3663
Rushing Yards - 736
Passing TDs - 27
Interceptions - 11
Rushing TDs - 11

If you count 25 passing yards = 1 point, 10 rushing yards = 1 points, TDs = 6 points, and INTs = -3 points, McNabb would have had 414 fantasy points in 2002. In comparison in 2003, a great season for Manning anyone will admit, Peyton Manning only had 287 fantasy points. And this was all with McNabb having no WRs, wow, I would definetly want to take a chance on McNabb. Probably not until safer bets Culpepper and Manning were off the boards, and the potential of Vick was gone, but I don't see how McNabb could be ranked lower than 4th.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:56 pm

I see McNabb 5th, but is really close between him and Hasselback. I really like Hasselback, and he will only get better.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Jul 01, 2004 2:15 pm

FaMoUsXsTaRz wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:
FaMoUsXsTaRz wrote:Listen Mr. Doesnt know what hes talking about. Just because Im new to the board doesnt mean you know more than me.

Now that we got that clear, this year the Pats will have a much less predictable offense and the opposing Ds wont know that hes passing all the time which will then in turn allow for bigger plays through the air and more Tds. ;-D



Brady does well in the system he's in. If asked to throw the ball downfield more I believe he'll struggle big time.


You obviously dont watch many Pats games becuase if you do you will see that Brady has really no trouble throwing downfield.


If he starts doing it more often then the defences will pick up on it and he will have a much more difficult time throwing the ball downfield. Brady is a dump off QB.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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brady

Postby broncomike » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:28 pm

as a long-time fantasy player, i look for brady to have a HUGE year this year. easily top-5 FANTASY QB at the end. the reason: Corey Dillon. The reason Brady's number fantasy-wise have been meager throughout his career is one simple reason. No running game. Yes, NE's defense has carried the Pats to 2 super bowls, but now that they aquired Dillon, watch out. Dillon will make Brady work, just as Priest makes Green work in KC. Green is all around a terrible player if you just watch him week in and week out, but the reason he has big numbers and wins? Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez. Brady's numbers will increase a great deal this coming year if Dillon is healthy. The Pats are a scary team this year, only notible loss is Ted Washington. They will be repeat super bowl champs and Brady will be in the Pro Bowl because of Dillon. My 2 cents.
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Re: brady

Postby CC » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:37 pm

broncomike wrote:as a long-time fantasy player, i look for brady to have a HUGE year this year. easily top-5 FANTASY QB at the end. the reason: Corey Dillon. The reason Brady's number fantasy-wise have been meager throughout his career is one simple reason. No running game. Yes, NE's defense has carried the Pats to 2 super bowls, but now that they aquired Dillon, watch out. Dillon will make Brady work, just as Priest makes Green work in KC. Green is all around a terrible player if you just watch him week in and week out, but the reason he has big numbers and wins? Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez. Brady's numbers will increase a great deal this coming year if Dillon is healthy. The Pats are a scary team this year, only notible loss is Ted Washington. They will be repeat super bowl champs and Brady will be in the Pro Bowl because of Dillon. My 2 cents.


What are you smoking? Green is a solid QB, he has no WRs to throw to and neither Tony G or Priest had 1000 yards. I know Tony G had 900 and I would assume that Priest had about 700 yards, so that leaves 2400 yards that Green threw to other players. I don't think Green is an uber-stud QB by any stretch of the imagination, but terrible? Terrible QBs don't throw for 4000 yards, terrible QBs bag groceries at the local supermarket.
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Postby maddog60 » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:40 pm

Brady as a dump-off QB? I seem to recall a certain long bomb to Troy Brown in over time that ended a Miami/Pats game last year. Brady isn't really anything specific. He's got one of the fastest releases out of any QB (which is good, b/c his lack of mobility means he's got to be able to throw the ball before the defense can knock him down.

Also, he's got that intangible that can't really be defined in statistics, he's clutch. There's no doubt if the Pats are trailing in the 4th with less than 2 minutes left that he's going to at least march that offense into field goal territory. In big games, his level of play seems to elevate, and just as well on big plays, he's stepping up his game and coming through. This is one of the great traits that a football player should have that simply doesn't translate to fantasy football.
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Re: brady

Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:42 pm

broncomike wrote:as a long-time fantasy player, i look for brady to have a HUGE year this year. easily top-5 FANTASY QB at the end. the reason: Corey Dillon. The reason Brady's number fantasy-wise have been meager throughout his career is one simple reason. No running game. Yes, NE's defense has carried the Pats to 2 super bowls, but now that they aquired Dillon, watch out. Dillon will make Brady work, just as Priest makes Green work in KC. Green is all around a terrible player if you just watch him week in and week out, but the reason he has big numbers and wins? Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez. Brady's numbers will increase a great deal this coming year if Dillon is healthy. The Pats are a scary team this year, only notible loss is Ted Washington. They will be repeat super bowl champs and Brady will be in the Pro Bowl because of Dillon. My 2 cents.


My general observation is that the emergence of a big time running game only helps the running game. If Brady has a big passing year, people will credit Dillon, but I suspect it would have a lot more to do with the development of Givens and Branch as receivers.
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green being 'terrible'

Postby broncomike » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:42 pm

okay, i admit, maybe 'terrible' was a stretch. point was, without Tony or Priest, Green and the Chiefs would be sharing the basement with san diego.
morton had 50 rec for 700 yards, kennison 56 rec for 800 yards
tony 71 rec for 961, priest 74 rec for 714 yards

so as you can see, priest and tony make green work, just look at stats...plus, im a die-hard broncos fan, gotta take a shot at the chiefs whenever i can ;-D
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