Coles is the one WR I can't really put a finger on thus far...I really like his speed and potential, but don't know much about him. The topic title might throw you off a little...I have nothing against taking Coles (He's my #11 WR right now), but for you guys that have him even higher, tell me why he will excel. I didn't get a chance to see him play last season, and I'm curious to see what you all think.
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Coles really only had a couple good weeks last year. I reached for him last year in the 4th round in a 12-team draft. He started the year strong in Washington but after Week 3 people had the Redskin offense figured out and that hurt Coles. Not to mention that his toe injury slowed him last year and caused him to miss time.
In a new offense with Joe Gibbs, it's unpredictable on how good he'll be. The popular opinion right now is that he'll see less balls thrown his way this year with Portis getting a lot more touches than Canidate/Betts did last year. Not to mention, Gardner is a decent enough #2 WR to get his fair share of balls thrown his way.
Personally, I think he's a stellar athlete with some blazing speed. However, I would put him in the 17-25 tier rather than keep him at 11. In my personal rankings, that would put him closer to Isaac Bruce and Rod Smith than Joe Horn or Darrell Jackson. You can't deny Coles' playmaking ability, however, his small size doesn't lend him to be much of a redzone threat. No jump balls or fade patterns are going his way. TD allergies tend to scare off smart GM's taking a reach in the 3-5th round on someone the team doesn't count on when they hit the redzone.
After this season or possibly the next, fantasy coaches will admire Coles the way they admire Hines Ward. Hard working, makes the tough catches and doesn't complain.
Historically WRs fall off a little when changing teams. He went from a 9-7 playoff team to a 4-12 bottom of the barrel team.
He went from a prime situation to a bad situation without missing a beat. I have 100% confidence in him that the only thing that will stop him from repeating his numbers will be a major injury. Since there is no way to account for major injuries and freak accidents, draft with confidence.
As far as TDs go, that's more luck than anything. The difference between 6 TDs and 10 TDs for a WR is a handful of plays that went your way instead of against it. A tipped or overthrown pass on a goal line play. A pass interference play that saves a TD and the coach calls a run from the 1. Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward, Chris Chambers and Santana Moss aren't big WRs and they've had double digit TD seasons. Coles is in that class of athlete and a few lucky plays that go his way make him a 10 TD receiver just like the others.
Coles toe injury still nagging him is my only concern, otherwise I'd gladly take him about 7th or 8th, especially if its a dynasty or keeper league. I would have no problme with him as my #1 WR and think he's an absolute steal in early 4th or late 3rd (shouldn't fall that far, ever).
Only Randy Moss, Holt, Marvin, CJ, TO, and Ward are clearly in a tier above him, so after that you've got: Coles, Horn, Mason, S. Moss, Boldin, D-Jax, S. Smith, Moulds, Andre Johnson, and Chambers competing for the rest of the top 15 WRs. Jimmy Smith and/or Keenan McCardell could make a bid for it, but at their age, they're really not a safe pick for a #1 WR.
Out of those WRs, Boldin and Johnson are far too unproven for me to rely on them to be a my #1 fantasy WR. Moulds was a bust last year and there's no gaurantee at his age he can bounce back to form. Smith, Jackson, Chambers, and Moss all had breakout years last year, but Coles has 2 top level years under his belt. So now you're down to Horn, Mason, or Coles. Horn is just a little bit too long in the tooth to me, so I'd say given a redraft league I like Mason over Coles, otherwise, gimme Coles.
I obviously need to move a little quicker to try and beat maddog to these prime posts! He made an excellent series of points. I have Coles and Moss as my 7-8 guys, but not gonna quibble with that.
To those of you who would say that the smashmouth system of Gibbs is not good for WR, I say this:
He is a great athlete and a terrific receiver but a couple of things trouble me.
1) no more fun 'n gun. Coles had 158 passes thrown to him last year - that's almost Randy ratio numbers. With Portis in town that number should go down (at least until Portis gets hurt).
2) Brunell over Ramsey. Ramsey was pretty much a pocket passer and Coles was his fav. target and we know that Ramsey took the hit to get the ball to him. Brunell is not as much of a pocket guy and now that he is older I predict that he will look more for the outlet pass to a TE or a back rather than take the hit to get the ball deep to Coles - that's just my opinion though. Brunell could be great and use Coles like Jimmy Smith.
In any event, I see Coles getting fewer balls and moving down a little bit.
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He is a great athlete and a terrific receiver but a couple of things trouble me.
1) no more fun 'n gun. Coles had 158 passes thrown to him last year - that's almost Randy ratio numbers. With Portis in town that number should go down (at least until Portis gets hurt).
Hopefully trading attrition for precision. Doing more with less chances. See Steve Smith.
2) Brunell over Ramsey. Ramsey was pretty much a pocket passer and Coles was his fav. target and we know that Ramsey took the hit to get the ball to him. Brunell is not as much of a pocket guy and now that he is older I predict that he will look more for the outlet pass to a TE or a back rather than take the hit to get the ball deep to Coles - that's just my opinion though. Brunell could be great and use Coles like Jimmy Smith.
Coles goes over the middle quite often to make his catches. That was something that really caught my attention and impressed me last season. Coles is not a straight fly route runner like a Marcus Robinson. He strikes me as a 7 yard slant turn it upfield type WR like Jerry Rice or Hines Ward. He does have the speed for the deep ball though which makes him that much better in my eyes. Ramsey didn't have the luxury of being able to throw the deep ball since it requires not letting defenders get to the QB.
Brunell would be perfect for a playaction type system. Strong running game sets it up, Brunell comes out of his bootleg and sees the hopefully open Coles. It would seem Gibbs brought in the guys to do just that. Tight Ends that focus on blocking more than receiving and a RB that makes it mandatory to respect the run game. Consider that Gardner is a 70 catch 1000 yard #1 WR playing the #2 spot and you're creating a Rams or 2002 Buffalo Bills type matchup situation for opposing defenses. I'm very enthusiastic about this year.
So many things have changed in Washington this offseason that it's damn near impossible to predict fantasy production for any of thier players. New coach, new QB, stud RB, etc. Throw into the mix the fact that Coles was supposedly playing hurt most of last year. As mentioned, Monk did Ok under Gibbs , and Jimmy Smith had some real nice seasons with Brunell (admittedly a much younger Brunell) at QB.
I wouldn't want to rely on Coles as my number 1, but would love to have him as a number 2. In a 12 team league though, that's probably unrealistic. Coles will probably be a #1 for someone. I guess that will probably put him in the 8-12ish range in my WR rankings, which I haven't done yet.
After Moss, Harrison, Holt, T.O., Chad Johnson, and Ward, I really think Coles is the next on the list. The guy played hurt the entire season last year and still posted respectable numbers.
The reason I like him so much is because, like Horn, he isn't as much of a risk as Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, Santana Moss, etc. The team now has Mark Brunell, a veteran QB that should help Coles' numbers, and Clinton Portis. Portis should mean less double coverage for Coles, but also less passes.
But he's still the #1 target by far, and should see many passes thrown in his direction. In fact, in 2003, Coles had 158 passes thrown to him, which is more than anyone except Moss, Holt, and Boldin. He makes a decent #1 WR (especially if you grab him in the 3rd round after you've gone RB-RB) and an amazing #2 WR.
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by deftdelivery » Tue Jun 29, 2004 9:51 pm 
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, and Jimmy Smith had some real nice seasons with Brunell (admittedly a much younger Brunell) at QB.
