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Projections Opinions

Postby dynastyzcbizzie21 » Wed Jun 30, 2004 12:56 am

Alright guys, im using projections for the first time this year instead of just plain old rankings, to create my cheat sheets. Just interested in your opinions, anything that may be way off base, or any random thoughts. Just started out with about a total of 75 of the top players at the major positions so far. Info has been done in Excel, and loaded onto the web, linked below. Thanks in advance for input.

Quarterback

Running back

Wide Receiver

Tight End
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Postby KingGhidra » Wed Jun 30, 2004 3:55 am

Your passing stats for Culpepper, Manning, Hasselbeck, Bulger, Favre and Brooks are overly generous.

Your rushing stats for Alexander, Williams, James, Faulk, T.Jones and probably Westbrook are a bit generous. I don't think Ahman is going to get 3350 receiving yards either.
;-)

I also try not to overproject on rushing TDs since they vary a lot from season to season. I seem to have magically lost my spreadsheets for rushing stats the last three seasons, but I usually set my upper limit for rushing TDs in the 16-17 range since anything higher is very rare.

You're being pretty optimistic for Kellen Winslow.

Everything else looks fine with the exception of Randy Moss's TDs.

In general you seem to be a bit optimistic about your stats compared to me.
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Postby GMoney » Wed Jun 30, 2004 5:38 am

that however is completely irrelevant so long as he is overly optomistic (as you call it) for everyone, the comparrison remains the same.

However I had a problem with your RBs recieveing stats. You have ricky williams (i think i looked at it earlier) and other backs like alexander, having MORE receptions than Green and Barlow.... These with the exception of faulk and tiki are probably the 2 most pass catchin RBs in the league and it would not surprise me one little bit if they BOTH lead their team in receptions this year.
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Postby CKY_ROX » Wed Jun 30, 2004 10:09 am

GMoney wrote:that however is completely irrelevant so long as he is overly optomistic (as you call it) for everyone, the comparrison remains the same.

However I had a problem with your RBs recieveing stats. You have ricky williams (i think i looked at it earlier) and other backs like alexander, having MORE receptions than Green and Barlow.... These with the exception of faulk and tiki are probably the 2 most pass catchin RBs in the league and it would not surprise me one little bit if they BOTH lead their team in receptions this year.


have you forgot about tomlinson?!??! he is all the chargers offence both running and catching.

i think that it is ineresting that you actually wrote out all of the projections. i wonder if you will look dumb at the end of the season. they all look pretty good to me
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Postby CC » Wed Jun 30, 2004 1:57 pm

GMoney wrote:These with the exception of faulk and tiki are probably the 2 most pass catchin RBs in the league and it would not surprise me one little bit if they BOTH lead their team in receptions this year.


I don't like him, but what happened, did the Rams cut Torry Holt?
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Postby goleafsgo96 » Wed Jun 30, 2004 4:04 pm

If Vick stays healthy long enough to throw for 3200 yds, i have a feeling he rushes for alot more than 500 yds.
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Postby FFRookie » Wed Jun 30, 2004 9:50 pm

dynastyzcbizzie21, are you using historical data, or projections from web sites? I'm trying to do the same thing. Can you post any projections links you might have, if you don't mind.

I like to collect enough data so that I can remove the noise, and have a projections sheet. It's much better than rankings since you can customize it for different scoring systems, league size etc.

Of course it's not a science at all, just for fun...
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Postby dynastyzcbizzie21 » Wed Jun 30, 2004 10:36 pm

FFRookie wrote:dynastyzcbizzie21, are you using historical data, or projections from web sites? I'm trying to do the same thing. Can you post any projections links you might have, if you don't mind.

I like to collect enough data so that I can remove the noise, and have a projections sheet. It's much better than rankings since you can customize it for different scoring systems, league size etc.

Of course it's not a science at all, just for fun...



I actually don't use projections from websites, I study historical data that I have collected, along with individual player assessments over the last three years. I then finally factor in any player/team changes (free agency, trades, etc.) for the upcoming season and strength of schedule to make a projection for each player. I, much like it sounds for you, use this system because it allows me to transfer projections between different scoring systems to create rankings instead of using a set of pre-detemined set rankings for any league, which I feel is inaccurate.
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