Analysis of the consensus top 6 RBs - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Analysis of the consensus top 6 RBs

Moderator: Football Moderators

Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:18 am

Just came across an interesting stat that effects Portis, Tomlinson and Green:
They all have had two top 5 fantasy finishes by age 25.

Here's the complete list.

Emmitt Smith
Barry Sanders
Walter Payton
Thurman Thomas
Marcus Allen
Edgerrin James
Ahman Green
Eric Dickerson
Curtis Martin
Earl Campbell
Tony Dorsett
Ottis Anderson

That's a pretty exclusive list they belong to.

Portis has two more seasons to put up another top five before age 25. If he does, here are the only other players to do so.

Emmitt Smith
Barry Sanders
Walter Payton

Tomlinson just missed out of this group, he finished 7th overall his rookie year.
Last edited by KingGhidra on Sun Jul 04, 2004 1:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
KingGhidra
General Manager
General Manager

Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4303
Joined: 3 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby aussieboy » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:25 am

I would like to know why you stated that Ahman Green should continue his magnificent performance last season into this season because "nothing has changed", and yet in your recent post "Jamal Lewis: Point of View" you clearly downplay Lewis as having a "career year, and probably not being able to repeat the performance.


What's the difference? Ahman Green had his career year last season as well following an increase in workload. Why is he likely to continue to be of stud calibre and Jamal Lewis coming back down to earth following his "fluke".
aussieboy
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1398
Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Lonely island

Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:56 am

aussieboy wrote:I would like to know why you stated that Ahman Green should continue his magnificent performance last season into this season because "nothing has changed", and yet in your recent post "Jamal Lewis: Point of View" you clearly downplay Lewis as having a "career year, and probably not being able to repeat the performance.


What's the difference? Ahman Green had his career year last season as well following an increase in workload. Why is he likely to continue to be of stud calibre and Jamal Lewis coming back down to earth following his "fluke".


Hmm good point, thanks for noticing that. It probably a subconscious bias I have against Lewis and for Ahman Green. I suppose when I look at the numbers, Ahman was in the high 200s before and Lewis was in the very low 200s.

Ahman went from 262 (2001) to 337.
Lewis went from 218 to 300.

I guess the biggest difference is if they both return to their previous averages, Ahman is still top 5 and Lewis is in the 15th range. That's an entire round when it comes to a draft.
KingGhidra
General Manager
General Manager

Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4303
Joined: 3 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby maddog60 » Thu Jul 01, 2004 10:17 am

KingGhidra wrote:Using the number "50%" makes it seem like there was more competition than there was. He has less competition by 1 RB who had 90 carries. Correll Buckhalter had more carries than Duce and is still on the team. He lost the least of his competition. Some are drafting him on what look like very biased stats in his favor. Reaching for a player like him in the third, in general, is a mistake . Reaching for him in particular? Who knows. It'll be interesting and that's why we play the game.


No way was Duce the worst of Westbrook's competition. Duce outperformed Buckhalter all year long, and I'm not trying to say Buckhalte is a bad RB either. But also, Duce was the type of RB and filled the role that Westbrook does. He's speedy and can catch the ball well. Buckhalter doesnt fit that mold, so in situations where the Eagles want to run a RB screen pass(bread and butter for them), they're going to look to Westbrook when they would've put in Duce before.

Also, this flash in the pan argument just doesn't fly when you look at how highly Dominick Davis is ranked. Most mocks I see he goes early 2nd round, mid at latest. Concensus seems to be that anywhere after the 2nd round he'd be an absolute steal. Well, that's great, but he was a rook who didn't even play a full season or handle a featured RB load (300+) carries, so he could just as likely be a flash in the pan instead of the premier #2 RB people are making him out to be. If Davis is a steal in the 3rd round, Westbrook is easily worth an early 3rd round pick seeign how both have the same injury concern and unproven knocks against them.
maddog60
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 9758
Joined: 18 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jul 01, 2004 10:37 am

maddog60 wrote:
KingGhidra wrote:Using the number "50%" makes it seem like there was more competition than there was. He has less competition by 1 RB who had 90 carries. Correll Buckhalter had more carries than Duce and is still on the team. He lost the least of his competition. Some are drafting him on what look like very biased stats in his favor. Reaching for a player like him in the third, in general, is a mistake . Reaching for him in particular? Who knows. It'll be interesting and that's why we play the game.


No way was Duce the worst of Westbrook's competition. Duce outperformed Buckhalter all year long, and I'm not trying to say Buckhalte is a bad RB either. But also, Duce was the type of RB and filled the role that Westbrook does. He's speedy and can catch the ball well. Buckhalter doesnt fit that mold, so in situations where the Eagles want to run a RB screen pass(bread and butter for them), they're going to look to Westbrook when they would've put in Duce before.

Also, this flash in the pan argument just doesn't fly when you look at how highly Dominick Davis is ranked. Most mocks I see he goes early 2nd round, mid at latest. Concensus seems to be that anywhere after the 2nd round he'd be an absolute steal. Well, that's great, but he was a rook who didn't even play a full season or handle a featured RB load (300+) carries, so he could just as likely be a flash in the pan instead of the premier #2 RB people are making him out to be. If Davis is a steal in the 3rd round, Westbrook is easily worth an early 3rd round pick seeign how both have the same injury concern and unproven knocks against them.


Well DD is going higher, because he has more value and that makes sense. We got to see DD for twice as many carries and he appears to have a lock on the starting role. He might be the newest 330 carry, 50 catch guy which would make him a top RB prospect. Westbrook would have the same value built into his draft position if not for the very real threat of Correll Buckhalter.
KingGhidra
General Manager
General Manager

Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4303
Joined: 3 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Jul 01, 2004 10:59 am

KG - you arent concerned with Hollings?

He did lead the nation in rushing before blowing out his knee. After his combine workouts he was one of the most prized pickups in the supplemental draft. In fact - at the time, people were talking about DDavis being a short term option until Hollings gets back to full strength. Hollings is back to full strength.

Pete Prisco wrote:Domanick Davis vs. Tony Hollings, running back

Davis burst onto the scene as a rookie fourth-round pick last year when he rushed for more than 1,000 yards, despite missing the first part of the season with an injury. Davis has already gone on record as saying 2,000 yards is his goal this year. But Hollings might have something to say about that. The Texans took him in the supplemental draft last summer with the idea he could be a back of the future. He was coming off knee surgery, so they knew it would take some time. Hollings flashed at times when he did get on the field last season, and could be more of an every-down back than Davis.


Just something to keep in mind. ;-D
Cornbread Maxwell
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5924
Joined: 7 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:45 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:KG - you arent concerned with Hollings?

He did lead the nation in rushing before blowing out his knee. After his combine workouts he was one of the most prized pickups in the supplemental draft. In fact - at the time, people were talking about DDavis being a short term option until Hollings gets back to full strength. Hollings is back to full strength.

Pete Prisco wrote:Domanick Davis vs. Tony Hollings, running back

Davis burst onto the scene as a rookie fourth-round pick last year when he rushed for more than 1,000 yards, despite missing the first part of the season with an injury. Davis has already gone on record as saying 2,000 yards is his goal this year. But Hollings might have something to say about that. The Texans took him in the supplemental draft last summer with the idea he could be a back of the future. He was coming off knee surgery, so they knew it would take some time. Hollings flashed at times when he did get on the field last season, and could be more of an every-down back than Davis.


Just something to keep in mind. ;-D


Nope.

I've seen DD play in a pro game (albeit only once) and zero for Hollings. Blowing out your knee is probably not the best way to kickoff an NFL career either.

In general, I tend to ignore "such and such is looking good in practice and could push xyz for the starter's role" type news since it's probably worthless. Leading the nation in rushing doesn't mean much, especially coming from the ACC. What was his competition again? Vanderbilt, Connecticut, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland, Duke... If this were baskebetball, that'd be a hell of a schedule... It's not basketball though.

:-b
KingGhidra
General Manager
General Manager

Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4303
Joined: 3 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:56 am

Further backing the idea that Hollings won't be a threat, hasn't he never actually played a full season as a RB at any level?

If I recall correctly, he was converted from another position, and blew out his knee in his first and only year that he's ever played as I running back. Doesn't sound like a guy I'd be too worried about if I were DD..
Image
Free Bagel
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 8495
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Titletown, FL

Postby CC » Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:59 am

He was a corner before he played running back, if DD goes down (and I'm sure he will), Hollings could pull a Kurt Warner and take his job.
Image
I ain't no suit-wearin' businessman like you... you know I'm just a gangsta I suppose... - Avon Barksdale
CC
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 11079
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: The Big House.

Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 01, 2004 12:00 pm

Kurt Warner was a cornerback?




:p
Image
Free Bagel
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 8495
Joined: 25 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Titletown, FL

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 18:18 hours
(and 41 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact