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Point of view: Jamal Lewis

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Point of view: Jamal Lewis

Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:27 am

2003 was obviously a career year for Jamal Lewis. The funny thing about career years is, they don't usually repeat themselves hence the name.

Jamal Lewis's 2003 peformance reminds me of the 2002 Ricky Williams. Pretty consistent, looked like you had a good idea what you were gonna get, then BAM big season out of the blue. In 2003, Ricky returned to his previous form.

I'm looking for anyone to argue the case for Jamal Lewis retaining most of his value for 2004 (ignoring the legal thing). What I mean by retaining most of his value is: Still stays in the 1500-1600 yard range and doesn't lose more than 1-2 rushing TDs.

I'm not looking to argue against anyone, I just want to see if there are people who can make some points that I might be missing since I don't see a reason for him to retain his value. The more specific you can get, the better.

Thanks.

;-D
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:30 am

He still plays Cleveland twice this year, that's good for at least 1200 yards and 12 TD's in those two games alone.

My guess is he'll be able to pick up the other 400yds and 2 TD's in his 14 remaining games.
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Postby Free Bagel » Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:41 am

In all seriousness though, basically what you're asking for is 1600 yards and 12 TD's, and I think Lewis can do that this year.

Last year, in addition to his near 300 yard game, he played very consistently, rushing for 100+ yards 12 times. His season low for rushing yards was 68 yards. That's not even counting receiving yards. Baltimore brings back the exact same style of play this year and I don't see any reason for them to stop feeding him the ball.

In every season he's played he's gained at least 1600 total yards, and I see no reason for that to change. The only real question to me is whether or not he'll be able to put up the TD numbers he did last year again. My guess would be that he will. He seemed quicker this past year, and he broke more long runs than he ever had before by a decent margin.

More important however, is that last year he had nearly twice as many rushing yards inside the opponents redzone as he did in 2002. While the QB situation wasn't exactly great before either, the Ravens have seemed less confident about throwing the ball and possibly turning it over in the red zone with guys like Boller at the helm.
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Re: Point of view: Jamal Lewis

Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:07 am

KingGhidra wrote:2003 was obviously a career year for Jamal Lewis. The funny thing about career years is, they don't usually repeat themselves hence the name.

Jamal Lewis's 2003 peformance reminds me of the 2002 Ricky Williams. Pretty consistent, looked like you had a good idea what you were gonna get, then BAM big season out of the blue. In 2003, Ricky returned to his previous form.

I'm looking for anyone to argue the case for Jamal Lewis retaining most of his value for 2004 (ignoring the legal thing). What I mean by retaining most of his value is: Still stays in the 1500-1600 yard range and doesn't lose more than 1-2 rushing TDs.

I'm not looking to argue against anyone, I just want to see if there are people who can make some points that I might be missing since I don't see a reason for him to retain his value. The more specific you can get, the better.

Thanks.

;-D


To take up the challenge and not to argue that he actually will repeat last year but to argue that it is possible - I give you Priest Holmes.

An ordinary back who gets traded to the Chiefs and has a career year in 2001 with 2,169 total yds and 10 TD.

He follows that up with another career year in 2002 2,287 and 24 TD
and another in 2003 2,110 and 27 TD.

3 career years in a row - career year just means that it is is the best statistical year of their career so far. You can alway best a career year.

It all comes down to ability and opportunity.

Priest had the ability but not the opportunity with the Ravens. Once given the opportunity and placed in the perfect offense to showcase his talents the career years came.

JL had the opportunity without the ability because of injury.

If you take away the injury in 2001 the numbers from his rookie year 1,660 6 TD to last year 2,271 and 14 TD seem like a natural progression for an elite back. If you chart it over time it would have the same slope as LT's progression.

Not much has changed in Baltimore - they still do not have a passing game and will rely on JL and to a lesser extent Heap. With Ray Lewis, Suggs, Hartwell and McAlister on the other side you can be sure that the Ravens will be in a lot of low scoring games that are perfect for a grind it out ground attack.

The potential upside is that they give him more goalline carries and he learns to catch the ball when he is not in court.
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Postby aussieboy » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:13 am

I don't understand why an argument needs to be made FOR Lewis. You're asking why some think he will do his 1600 yards + 12 TDs, well it's because he's done it before. Simple. He's proven he can do it. The real debate should be why he might not be able to repeat last yrs performace.

Yes there are examples of players having career years and then the next season returning to mediocrity, well there are plenty of examples of players having career years and then maintaining that level of performance. What about Lewis' situation has changed so much that you think he will have that significant a drop from last season? Apart from the legal issues, which you agreed to not factor into this discussion. It's not like he's in a Stephen Davis scenario where he has a team mate that is definately going to steal carries, he's not old, he has a great offensive line, he plays in a team that plays to his advantage. What more do you want? It's unfair to compare Lewis to Williams, yes Ricky had a career yr and failed to meet those lofty hights last year, but what about Lewis makes you compare him to Ricky. Where are the similarities? Just because they both had career years? There's no point in comparing players themselves, their scenario's need some sort of similarities in order to predict Ricky's fate for Lewis.

I doubt Lewis will go for 2000 yards again, but I'm confident he will exceed your expectations and will come close if not surpass the 1600 yard rushing mark. Which would make him a top back, easily.
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Postby CC » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:19 am

I think the 1600 is a good bet, but 12 TDs is something I doubt, I just don't think he will break as many long runs, and you don't get a lot of oppurtunities to score in that offence. 8 or 9 TDs is more realistic IMO, especially considering he only had 7 TDs in 2002. He will be a better version of Stephen Davis, and still worth a 1st round pick.
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Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jul 01, 2004 10:12 am

Something I dug up on Jamal Lewis that helps his case as far as rushing totals. He wasn't the starter until week 4 his rookie year. He totalled 19 carries the first 3 games. Adjusting for a 16 game season, that's 357 carries which adds up to 1,570 yards.

Hmm...
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Postby Flux » Thu Jul 01, 2004 10:27 am

Everyone is saying that Baltimore has no passing game, which I do kind of agree with. But it will be better than last year, or it at least will help Jamal more than it did last year, simply b/c Boller can throw it 8000 yds. The kid has probably the best arm in football, and if you send a guy deep every down, you cant stack the box as much as you could last year.
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Postby F00ballKing » Thu Jul 01, 2004 10:39 am

Jamal is one of those guys that a lot of FFL'ers don't buy into. Just like Priest... many are very high on him, but the same amount doubt him.

Jamal Lewis is 95% of the Baltimore Offense. When everything goes through a guy like that you have to put him at the top of the pile. He's not a #1 because of his lack of TD production and untimely fumbles... but, he's definitely a first round draft pick.

JL is #5 on my RB list... just for the pure yardage he racks up, a few more TD's and better hands would put him into the conversation with Priest and LT.

As far as talent... he almost broke the rushing record last year. Baltimore had NOTHING else on offense... teams knew he was getting the ball and couldn't stop him. He's pure power with breakaway speed... definite top RB in the NFL. Saying he'll have a 600-800 yard dropoff is a very bold statement... if he plays 16 games.
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Postby slowkidz » Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:05 am

Free Bagel wrote:He still plays Cleveland twice this year, that's good for at least 1200 yards and 12 TD's in those two games alone.

My guess is he'll be able to pick up the other 400yds and 2 TD's in his 14 remaining games.


I should just delete this post...grrrr.... :-# }:-) ;-)
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