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Point of view: Jamal Lewis

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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:52 am

Just some info for the side that believes Lewis will fall off:

the previous 4 2000 yard rushers and the years they had after their career years:

OJ Simpson:

1973: 2003 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs

1974: 1125 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs

Erc Dickerson:

1984: 2105 rushing yards, 14 rushings TDs

1985: 1234 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs

Barry Sanders:

1997: 2053 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs

1998: 1491 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs

Terrell Davis:

1998: 2008 rushing yards, 21 rushing TDs

1999: 211 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs


As you can see every RB in the history of football to rush for 2000 yards has had a mediocre at best next year. Now Sanders 1491 yards looks nice but 4 TDs is not very good and his ypc dropped nearly 2 yards. And really every one on this list except for Davis is a much better player than Lewis. Can he buck the trend? Maybe but I wouldn't count on it.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby ChyBoy » Thu Jul 01, 2004 12:32 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:Just some info for the side that believes Lewis will fall off:

the previous 4 2000 yard rushers and the years they had after their career years:

OJ Simpson:

1973: 2003 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs

1974: 1125 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs

Erc Dickerson:

1984: 2105 rushing yards, 14 rushings TDs

1985: 1234 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs

Barry Sanders:

1997: 2053 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs

1998: 1491 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs

Terrell Davis:

1998: 2008 rushing yards, 21 rushing TDs

1999: 211 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs


As you can see every RB in the history of football to rush for 2000 yards has had a mediocre at best next year. Now Sanders 1491 yards looks nice but 4 TDs is not very good and his ypc dropped nearly 2 yards. And really every one on this list except for Davis is a much better player than Lewis. Can he buck the trend? Maybe but I wouldn't count on it.


WOW that is very interesting. What would you attribute that to: Coincidence, fatigue, Defenses keying on the run. I know Davis had an ACL injury, but what about Simpson and Dickerson?

Anyway I think with the Ravens Defense and lack of a stable passing game, Jamal can obtain 1600 yards, but I think his TD's will go under double digits. I think they will use Chester Taylor more often in short yardage situations.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Jul 01, 2004 12:43 pm

Well since I'm a realatively young ffotball fan (23) I really don't know the circumstances too well surrounding Dickerson and OJ. But they did still prduce good years after the year after 2000. So I don't know how much of it could be fatigue. Davis is the only one who's career went totally into the toilet. It's just the one year after seems to be a hangover year for what ever reaon. Maybe the defences have the mentallity they don't want to let this guy run all over them again. Or maybe the offence changes cause the defences change. Or maybe it just makes the RB try too hard to do it again rather than doing the things that got him to 2000. But I really don't know why they have all had off years after 2000 I just find it very interesting that they do.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:13 pm

OJ was probably busy murdering a fan then getting away with it :-b For Lewis, it all depends on the legal situation. The word is hes gonna miss 2 weeks for the trial. If hes convicted, he could miss the entire season. I dont think he will be convicted, but the NFL wont let him play during the trial, which could be bad. He could essentially be playing 14 games right off the bat.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:20 pm

34=Sweetness wrote:OJ was probably busy murdering a fan then getting away with it :-b For Lewis, it all depends on the legal situation. The word is hes gonna miss 2 weeks for the trial. If hes convicted, he could miss the entire season. I dont think he will be convicted, but the NFL wont let him play during the trial, which could be bad. He could essentially be playing 14 games right off the bat.


Yeah but that wasn't supposed to be part of the conversation.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby KingGhidra » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:20 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:Just some info for the side that believes Lewis will fall off:

the previous 4 2000 yard rushers and the years they had after their career years:

OJ Simpson:

1973: 2003 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs

1974: 1125 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs



Eric Dickerson:

1984: 2105 rushing yards, 14 rushings TDs

1985: 1234 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs


Held out the first two games for more money. Adjusting for a 16 game season: 1410/13

Barry Sanders:

1997: 2053 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs

1998: 1491 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs


1998 was his last season in the NFL. Tommy Vardell got 6 TDs on 18 carries that year.

Terrell Davis:

1998: 2008 rushing yards, 21 rushing TDs

1999: 211 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs


Tore his ACL.

So for 3 of the 4, they have perfectly good reasons for a decline. 2 of the 4 still posted top notch numbers in my book. I have no idea about OJ Simpson since that is before my time. In other words, I don't see any meaningful trend regarding 2000 yard rushers.
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:25 pm

KingGhidra wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:Just some info for the side that believes Lewis will fall off:

the previous 4 2000 yard rushers and the years they had after their career years:

OJ Simpson:

1973: 2003 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs

1974: 1125 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs



Eric Dickerson:

1984: 2105 rushing yards, 14 rushings TDs

1985: 1234 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs


Held out the first two games for more money. Adjusting for a 16 game season: 1410/13

Barry Sanders:

1997: 2053 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs

1998: 1491 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs


1998 was his last season in the NFL. Tommy Vardell got 6 TDs on 18 carries that year.

Terrell Davis:

1998: 2008 rushing yards, 21 rushing TDs

1999: 211 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs


Tore his ACL.

So for 3 of the 4, they have perfectly good reasons for a decline. 2 of the 4 still posted top notch numbers in my book. I have no idea about OJ Simpson since that is before my time. In other words, I don't see any meaningful trend regarding 2000 yard rushers.


Everyone still dropped at least 600 yards. Which is a hell of alot. And none topped 1500 yards. You were asking if Lewis could top 1600. Even the guys that had 'good' years afterwards didn't do that. And the only one who didn't see significant TD decline was Dickerson.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:27 pm

How can you not factor the legal part into drafting Jamal Lewis? Him missing time to it will almost certainly affect him fantasy wise. (unless you get bonus points for good testimony :-D )
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:30 pm

34=Sweetness wrote:How can you not factor the legal part into drafting Jamal Lewis? Him missing time to it will almost certainly affect him fantasy wise. (unless you get bonus points for good testimony :-D )


Oh I wasn't saying Jamal's legal troubles shouldn't be taken into consideration when thinking of drafting a guy. But KG said he wanted to throw that out and wanted to see what people thoughts of him were for this season without that getting in the way.
So they weren't the best...and may have ended the worst. SO WHAT!
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Postby pttwo » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:38 pm

Graham Hays of ESPN wrote an insightful article that compared the 47 times a RB has ran for 1,500 yards or more (since the advent of the 16 game schedule in 1978) and how they did the following season. Obviously the 6 who did it last season aren't compared since we don't know how they will do this season. He mentions 56 players but in his groups fails to mention 3, unless I just missed them somewhere

http://games.espn.go.com/content/ffl/20 ... id=1803938

To summarize, 40% of the time the back improved his numbers or 'held steady'. 1600 yards and 12 TDs for Lewis would likely fall into this category.

30% of the time there was a slight decline. Dickerson and Sanders 2000 yard years and their subsequent slumps are listed in this category.

30% of the time the following season was a bust a la Terrell Davis.

While you might not agree with his groupings, it is useful to look at the trends.

"One more set of numbers to confuse things just that much more: There are 30 running backs who rushed for between 1,500 and 1,700 yards and 17 running backs who rushed for more than 1,700 yards. Here are their average yards gained for each group the next season.
1,500-1,700 yards: 1,261 yards
1,701-plus yards: 1,205 yards"

Monster (1700+ yards) years are something special. A number of factors have to come together to produce one, and expecting a repeat performance is asking for disappointment.

Of course that's only looking at rushing yards and obviously touchdowns play a big role in fantasy scoring as well.
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