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My thoughts on Steve Smith

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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jul 02, 2004 9:46 am

goleafsgo96 wrote:Also Its no secret Carolina plans on using Davis alot less this year, and i dont think Deshaun will be as effective as Davis (at least this year) so i expect alot from Steve this year.


Ive been hearing about a 50/50 split. From what Ive seen it very well may be a big secret if they are planning on using a lot of SDavis.
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Postby osu4fan » Fri Jul 02, 2004 9:49 am

As i pointed out in another thread Steve Smith was best in the clutch, whether it was Davis going down, or a close 4th quarter. Smith is a terrific play maker, and he is there most every game for the Panthers.
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Postby KingGhidra » Fri Jul 02, 2004 10:13 am

osu4fan wrote:As i pointed out in another thread Steve Smith was best in the clutch, whether it was Davis going down, or a close 4th quarter. Smith is a terrific play maker, and he is there most every game for the Panthers.


I don't remember what game it was, but he made this terrific one handed grab at the goal line over a DB for a TD. I assumed that since he was a small guy that he wouldn't be good in the red zone, but apparently I was wrong.
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Postby maddog60 » Fri Jul 02, 2004 10:45 am

goleafsgo96 wrote:I think most ppl can agree he makes an aveage #1 receiver, and a great #2 receiver. And i think thats what most ppl are expecting of him right?


I wouldnt call him an average #1 WR. He's definitely below average and I wouldnt be comfortable with him as my #1 even though I think he'll do excellent again this year. There's 10-12 teams usually in a league, so lets say for arguments sake that the top 12 WRs comprise the group of #1 WRs. Then we have the obvious top half:

Moss, Harrison, Holt, TO, CJ, and Ward.

The next 6 are debateable, but in no particular order, yet, Mason, Coles, Smith, D-Jax, Horn, and S. Moss. Some would definitely argue Boldin in here, but given he's only a rookie, I'm going exclude him based on how unknowns he has coming into this year.

I think most people would put Mason and Coles at #7 and #8 respectively. A lot of people like Horn just as much if not more than Mason, though I personally think age will finally catch him (9 year vet) and he's due for a decline in production. But already Smith is somewhere in the #9 - #12 bottom third of top WRs. If you like Horn despite his age, Smith goes to #10 at best. If you're confident in Boldin, he drops even lower. I put him right on par with D-Jax and S. Moss. I'd love to have any one my team, but not as my #1 WR, unless I had a combo of 2 out of those 3, then I'd feel confident in their production.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jul 02, 2004 10:48 am

I think you just spelled out a strong case for drafting a top WR early.
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Postby maddog60 » Fri Jul 02, 2004 10:58 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:I think you just spelled out a strong case for drafting a top WR early.


Or going RB-RB if you have a late round pick. I've seen Smith and Mason, and D-Jax, etc, all sorts of combos from that top 12 WRs dropping into late 3rd and early 4th round.

But if you're drafting early, like 3rd overall. Torry Holt in the 2nd is a very probable pick, and someone like Bennett in the 3rd is on par with many #2 RB's in terms of being a safe bet. Then when a Darrell Jackson falls further than he should have due to Hasselback, Gonzo, McNair, etc going in the early to mid 4th, you've got quite a value pick on your hands.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Fri Jul 02, 2004 12:30 pm

Even the top WRs are inconsistent from game to game and the drop off between the top WRs is not nearly as big as the dropoff from top RBs. WRs will not score a TD every game, while most of the 2nd round RBs will score at least half of the weeks. It really depends what pick you are.
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Postby Carolina Culpepper » Fri Jul 02, 2004 12:44 pm

I like Smith, but lets not get carried away. 1100 yards and 7 TD's is at most a number two receiver in my mind. Is there a good chance for improvement in these numbers - yes. So much so that I would gamble on him as opposed to the usual #2 guys. I don't know. Smith is an interesting pick, but I am a little bit afraid that his playoff performance, when teams where clearly and obviously stacking against Davis, might be clouding our perspective a bit. We will see. Heck, if you're in a gambling mood pick Boldin or Fitz over Smith. I feel pretty sure one of them will have better stats than Smith at the end of the year. The question of course, is which one?!!
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Postby KingGhidra » Fri Jul 02, 2004 1:21 pm

Carolina Culpepper wrote:I like Smith, but lets not get carried away. 1100 yards and 7 TD's is at most a number two receiver in my mind.


Not a knock on you specifically, but when people make comments like this it boggles my mind. I know we'd all love Randy Moss numbers at the #1 position, but lets face it, we only get 2 or 3 such receivers every season. The vast majority of the #1s after those 3 look similar to 1100 & 7.

Code: Select all
Player                     Yards   TDs
1:Randy Moss                1632   17
2:Torry Holt                   1696   12
3:Chad Johnson             1355   10
4:Marvin Harrison           1272   10
5:Anquan Boldin             1377   8
6:Derrick Mason             1303   8
7:Hines Ward                 1163   10
8:Santana Moss             1105   10
9:Darrell Jackson           1137   9
10:Keenan McCardell      1174   8
11:Terrell Owens            1102   9
12:Chris Chambers        963   11
13:Joe Horn                   973   10
14:Laveranues Coles      1204   6
15:Steve Smith              1110   7


I stripped away return TDs and fumbles so we can get a clearer picture of what they are doing as receivers (where 99.99999% of their fantasy points come from).

That drops Steve Smith down to 15, which just so happens to be the last receiver before a significant dropoff in points. So what's the difference between Steve at 15 and Hines at 7? 3 catches. That's all it takes to go from a borderline #1 to a solid, consistent #1.

Anyone of those guys near the bottom are within striking distance of the #4 spot, so picking any of them as a #1 (except maybe Horn) isn't terrible or risky in my book. Obviously we'd all love to have Moss as our #1 with Smith as the #2, but we usually don't have that luxury.

Heck, if you're in a gambling mood pick Boldin or Fitz over Smith. I feel pretty sure one of them will have better stats than Smith at the end of the year.


I wouldn't really call picking Boldin over Smith "risk", but that's another discussion entirely.
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Postby Carolina Culpepper » Fri Jul 02, 2004 1:34 pm

KingGhidra wrote:
Carolina Culpepper wrote:I like Smith, but lets not get carried away. 1100 yards and 7 TD's is at most a number two receiver in my mind.


Not a knock on you specifically, but when people make comments like this it boggles my mind. I know we'd all love Randy Moss numbers at the #1 position, but lets face it, we only get 2 or 3 such receivers every season. The vast majority of the #1s after those 3 look similar to 1100 & 7.

Code: Select all
Player                     Yards   TDs
1:Randy Moss                1632   17
2:Torry Holt                   1696   12
3:Chad Johnson             1355   10
4:Marvin Harrison           1272   10
5:Anquan Boldin             1377   8
6:Derrick Mason             1303   8
7:Hines Ward                 1163   10
8:Santana Moss             1105   10
9:Darrell Jackson           1137   9
10:Keenan McCardell      1174   8
11:Terrell Owens            1102   9
12:Chris Chambers        963   11
13:Joe Horn                   973   10
14:Laveranues Coles      1204   6
15:Steve Smith              1110   7


I stripped away return TDs and fumbles so we can get a clearer picture of what they are doing as receivers (where 99.99999% of their fantasy points come from).

That drops Steve Smith down to 15, which just so happens to be the last receiver before a significant dropoff in points. So what's the difference between Steve at 15 and Hines at 7? 3 catches. That's all it takes to go from a borderline #1 to a solid, consistent #1.

Anyone of those guys near the bottom are within striking distance of the #4 spot, so picking any of them as a #1 (except maybe Horn) isn't terrible or risky in my book. Obviously we'd all love to have Moss as our #1 with Smith as the #2, but we usually don't have that luxury.

Heck, if you're in a gambling mood pick Boldin or Fitz over Smith. I feel pretty sure one of them will have better stats than Smith at the end of the year.


I wouldn't really call picking Boldin over Smith "risk", but that's another discussion entirely.





Thanks for the data, definately makes me think. I might have been too strong against Smith. I still don't necessarily think he will make the jump from #15 to #7, but the way you put it, there is that possibility. Great post.
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