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Analysis of RBs who change teams and their performance

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Analysis of RBs who change teams and their performance

Postby KingGhidra » Fri Jul 02, 2004 4:34 pm

I'll keep my comments short for this one since I can be long-winded sometimes.
;-)

Because of the Portis situation, I wanted to see what has happened historically when RBs change teams. I looked at any RB since 1983 who was a 1,000 yard rusher the year immediately before he changed teams. I could've included a RB who was a 1,000 yard rusher any year before he changed teams, but I thought that might to some skewed data since the gap between the 1,000 yard season and the team change might be pretty large. I choose the 1,000 yard mark for obvious reasons. It's the baseline for which we consider a RB at least average. Also, anyone not achieving 1,000 yards probably played less than 12 games that season.

The data:
http://kingghidorah.is-a-geek.net/Fanta ... change.htm

16 times since 1983 have running backs changed years following a 1,000 yard season. 6 of the 16 saw an improvement in their total fantasy points, 10 of the 16 saw a decline. 1 of the 10 who declined in fantasy points did so only marginally (9%), so for purposes of fantasy, you might consider that a success in a draft since that's probably less than the average player decline from season to season.

Notes about the spreadsheet:
1. Age is the age they started playing for their new team.
2. I prorated the points for a 16 game season. This doesn't seem to have any noticable effect since most of them played at least a 13 game season before and after the switch.
3. Carries is the # of carries they totalled in any 1,000 yard season before the switch. I thought knowing this might show some trends, but it's somewhat meaningless since I don't have years spent on the previous team with it and it might be misleading.
4. Earnest Jackson earns the distinction of being the only player to appear on the list twice, once as a gain, once as a loss.
5. I left Charger RB Gary Anderson off the list. He rushed for over 1,000 yards in 1988 then didn't play again until 1990. I don't know what happened to him (I'm assuming major injury), but I didn't want to bias the stats.
6. I think there is a definite pattern to the players who increased and decreased in the successive season, but I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
7. Yes those comments were short. For me at least.
:-b
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Re: Analysis of RBs who change teams and their performance

Postby Mookie4ever » Fri Jul 02, 2004 4:54 pm

KingGhidra wrote:The data:
http://kingghidorah.is-a-geek.net/Fantasy/RB_team_change.htm


I love the url.

KG wrote:6. I think there is a definite pattern to the players who increased and decreased in the successive season, but I'll let you draw your own conclusions.


yes the young RBs do better the older ones do not. But as I have said before RB production = ability + opportunity. Nobody questions Portis' ability, it is the Skins and the O-line and system giving him the opportunity to make the most of his ability.

Denver was the ideal situation for him. The shallow, injured and underperforming (by and large) O-line in in Washington coupled with their lack of a pass rush/loss of their best secondary playmaker (meaning that they will get scored on a lot and probably playing from behind) and gimpy QB does not look good to me.

KG wrote: I prorated the points for a 16 game season. This doesn't seem to have any noticable effect since most of them played at least a 13 game season before and after the switch.


not to nitpick but prorating is retrospective - moving forward is extrapolating.

ok now we're repeating ourselves - lock this thread. :-]
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Postby CC » Fri Jul 02, 2004 6:43 pm

That's some nice data, I think it might be pretty important next offseason when everyone will be evaluating the implications of team changes for many solid running backs. Alexander, Henry, and Edge could all be on new teams at the end of next season.
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Postby Bennett4prez » Fri Jul 02, 2004 7:44 pm

Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:That's some nice data, I think it might be pretty important next offseason when everyone will be evaluating the implications of team changes for many solid running backs. Alexander, Henry, and Edge could all be on new teams at the end of next season.


Don't forget Bennett via trade if one of the backups step up :-o
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Postby Canacuna » Fri Jul 02, 2004 7:50 pm

One of these days, some huge, multi-billion dollar, fantasy football conglomorate is going to see these posts of KG's and offer him a huge contract to start working for 'em.

Awesome info - as always - KG. ;-D
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Postby Bennett4prez » Fri Jul 02, 2004 8:24 pm

Canacuna wrote:One of these days, some huge, multi-billion dollar, fantasy football conglomorate is going to see these posts of KG's and offer him a huge contract to start working for 'em.

Awesome info - as always - KG. ;-D


And, yet, no graduate icon... :-?
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Postby GMoney » Fri Jul 02, 2004 9:31 pm

nice work KG.... thats a nice bit of effort.
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Postby KingGhidra » Sat Jul 03, 2004 1:25 am

Canadian_Cheesehead wrote:That's some nice data, I think it might be pretty important next offseason when everyone will be evaluating the implications of team changes for many solid running backs. Alexander, Henry, and Edge could all be on new teams at the end of next season.


Looking solely at the data, all three should be okay. The guys who changed teams and improved or held steady were all young and studs right away. The guys who declined were either very old (Dillon is a red flag) or late bloomers and took 3-4 years to land a starting job (Ahman Green and Barlow might be red flags if traded/FA). It's such a small sample size, that drawing a definite conclusion is impossible. I'd have to re-do it and include any RB who finished in the top 24 fantasy wise and switched teams the season after, but I'm not sure I want to.
:-b
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Postby FeArMeNtL » Sat Jul 03, 2004 2:30 am

I agree that many RB's have trouble getting 1000 yard seasons after changing teams by the reason that they are learning a new playbook, and if the team has a certain offensive gameplan. Most team like the Cardinals pass the ball 3/4 the plays they call because they are usually from behind meaning no good #'s for any RB that goes there. As for Portis, I think that their offense can score from any direction. Getting Brunell was key for the QB spot seeing how bad Ramsey did last year. Portis opens up the passing game and the WR will open up the run game since the defenses can't guard the run or the pass now. Defenses will now respect the Redskins offense, but their Defense is another story.
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Postby The Great Gambini » Sat Jul 03, 2004 8:14 am

That's some real good info as always, KG. Interesting and helpful.
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