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Perplexed on how to value Rudi

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Perplexed on how to value Rudi

Postby Wolverine » Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:33 am

There is no question that Rudi Johnson is a Round 2 pickup this year, however, I'm just having a hard time being convinced I should take him in the second. It's not that Perry scares me as a backup but it's more their tough schedule this year against some tough run defenses (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee). As of this moment, I'm inclined to pass him over and go for more of a proven or optimistic 2nd RB.

I acknowledge that he did well last year with Dillon injured but I have a gut feeling that he's going to let a lot of people down in 2004. Does anyone have any thoughts on Rudi that would support or diffuse my gut feeling?
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Postby F00ballKing » Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:45 am

I agree with you...

Palmer is basically a rookie this year. Teams are going to put 7 in the box and make him beat them with the pass. Rudi will get some numbers, but I don't see him as the stud everyone is talking about.

I'd take him early 3rd round if he was there.
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Postby The Great Gambini » Fri Jul 09, 2004 8:52 am

I'm also going to agree with you. While I acknowledge that he had some great games last year, I am taking the wait and see approach with Palmer as QB, and how Rudi deals with being the true starter, without Dillon breathing down his neck. Will he regress without the pressure to beat out another good RB?
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Postby nsulham » Fri Jul 09, 2004 8:55 am

Rudi is the one RB I am steering totally clear of, unless he drastically falls too far. That schedule is killer.
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Postby SwiperNoSwiping » Fri Jul 09, 2004 9:03 am

I agree with statements above, and I have posted similar comments elsewhere. I think Rudi is one to steer clear of this year. Will put up decent numbers but I wouldn't expect monster ones. Unless Palmer way overachieves early on keeping defenses a little more honest.
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Postby phunkadelic » Fri Jul 09, 2004 9:24 am

I agree with not taking him too early, but I don't agree with the Carson Palmer effect. He's too good of a passer with too many great receivers for defenses to ignore the passing game.

I'm more worried about Perry. I know it's not a common opinion, but I think he's their future, and their future will probably start next year or maybe the middle to end of this year. I just don't see the Bengals giving Perry 1st round money, then turning around and offering Rudi the type of contract he's going to demand.

Scenario 1: Rudi tears it up and Bengals can't afford him after this year, thus meaning they will start grooming Perry by stealing carries from Rudi.

Scenario 2: Rudi stinks it up, and was therefore a bad FF pick.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jul 09, 2004 9:33 am

Im not a Rudi fan, and you guys have mentioned many of the reasons Im not, butI think you missed one.

Look at his game log from last yr. He had 4 great games to his credit - all against teams who couldnt stop the run. Thats it. The rest of the time he was below average.

Dont buy the hype.
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Postby 34=Sweetness » Fri Jul 09, 2004 11:21 am

Ya Im going to avoid him like the plague this year; huge bust potential.
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Postby Wolverine » Fri Jul 09, 2004 1:31 pm

Exactly Cornbread, the only defense that finished well fantasy-wise that he did good against was KC and they were highly rated only because Daunte Hall is a great returner. They can't stop the run worth a crap.

Rudi (and the people that buy him in the early Round 2 area) is going to get a rude awakening with this tough schedule in 2004. That's my opinion and why I brought it up. If anything though, I think all this leads to Chad Johnson having an equal, if not a better year in 2004. He is the first Bengal that I would draft. ;-D
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Postby KingGhidra » Fri Jul 09, 2004 2:04 pm

nsulham wrote:Rudi is the one RB I am steering totally clear of, unless he drastically falls too far. That schedule is killer.


I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say his schedule isn't as bad as people are making it out to be.

1 at NY Jets
2 Miami
3 Baltimore
4 at Pittsburgh
5 BYE WEEK
6 at Cleveland
7 Denver
8 at Tennessee
9 Dallas
10 at Washington
11 Pittsburgh
12 Cleveland
13 at Baltimore
14 at New England
15 Buffalo
16 NY Giants
17 at Philadelphia

Outside of New England, Tennessee and Baltimore twice, nothing on that list particularly impresses me. They get lucky by having Philly week 17, which is not a fantasy week for most of us.

Cleveland, Washington & NY Jets aren't something to be afraid of.
Pittsburgh and Denver are "name defenses". They sound scary, but they are both in decline and average at best for 2004. Miami will be solid, especially early in the year, but they don't always travel well.

Buffalo might be tough early in the year, but come week 15, they'll be pushovers. The Giants are average at best. Cincy has the advantage of two home games in the fantasy playoffs when they will hopefully be competing for a playoff spot. The biggest concern is the week 13/14 road games of Baltimore and New England. While some guys like to draft around week 15/16 schedules, I look at week 12-14 schedules since those are usually the weeks that seperate the playoff teams from the pretenders.

They have a bunch of games against average defenses a few against cupcakes and a few against killers. Looks average to me. Considering the average run defense isn't very good these days, nothing to be worried about.

Then there's some intangibles. If they are playing well and in contention for the playoffs, that means Carson Palmer is playing well and defenses have to respect the passing game. Either that, or their run game is killer like Baltimore last season. If they start off poorly and Lewis makes the switch to Kitna mid-season, Cincy may experience a resurgence in their offense ala Doug Flutie in San Diego last season.
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