nsulham wrote:Rudi is the one RB I am steering totally clear of, unless he drastically falls too far. That schedule is killer.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say his schedule isn't as bad as people are making it out to be.
1 at NY Jets
4 at Pittsburgh
5 BYE WEEK
6 at Cleveland
8 at Tennessee
10 at Washington
13 at Baltimore
14 at New England
16 NY Giants
17 at Philadelphia
Outside of New England, Tennessee and Baltimore twice, nothing on that list particularly impresses me. They get lucky by having Philly week 17, which is not a fantasy week for most of us.
Cleveland, Washington & NY Jets aren't something to be afraid of.
Pittsburgh and Denver are "name defenses". They sound scary, but they are both in decline and average at best for 2004. Miami will be solid, especially early in the year, but they don't always travel well.
Buffalo might be tough early in the year, but come week 15, they'll be pushovers. The Giants are average at best. Cincy has the advantage of two home games in the fantasy playoffs when they will hopefully
be competing for a playoff spot. The biggest concern is the week 13/14 road games of Baltimore and New England. While some guys like to draft around week 15/16 schedules, I look at week 12-14 schedules since those are usually the weeks that seperate the playoff teams from the pretenders.
They have a bunch of games against average defenses a few against cupcakes and a few against killers. Looks average to me. Considering the average run defense isn't very good these days, nothing to be worried about.
Then there's some intangibles. If they are playing well and in contention for the playoffs, that means Carson Palmer is playing well and defenses have to respect the passing game. Either that, or their run game is killer like Baltimore last season. If they start off poorly and Lewis makes the switch to Kitna mid-season, Cincy may experience a resurgence in their offense ala Doug Flutie in San Diego last season.