Running QB's Durability Factor

[Buckychudd]

I did an analysis of QB's RushYards/Game vs. % of Games Missed, and came up with some interesting conclusions.

Rushing QBs those with >25 RushYards/Game historically missed 17.7% of their games, playing 461 out of a possible 560 games.
Vick
Culpepper
McNabb
Cunningham
McNair
Young

Scrambling QBs those with 10-25 RushYards/Game historically missed 6.5% of their games, playing 688 out of a possible 736 games.
Stewart
Garcia
Brunell
Brooks
Gannon
Plummer
Elway

Pocket QBs those with >10 RushYards/Game historically missed 6.6% of their games, playing 1366 out of a possible 1463 games.
Green
Montana
Favre
Moon
Leftwich
Hasselbeck
Aikman
Manning
Johnson
Brady
Bledsoe
Warner
Pennington
Bulger
Marino

I ran a regression of the data, they were positively corelated with a t-stat of 3.67 (for you statistic buffs). The sample included 27 QBs, and included 2759 possible games. I made adjustments for the games during seasons where the QBs in question were not official starters.

So, based on an admittedly small sample, you could draw the conclusion that rushing QBs are more likely to be injured than pocket passers or scramblers.

[Cornbread Maxwell]

nice study. so basically you can count on scrambling and pocket QBs to miss an average of one game a season, while rushing QBs you can count on to miss 2-3. That sounds about right.

[Mercer Boy]

I would say that anyway, but that was a pretty in-depth analysis nonetheless - very good stuff. What I see there is higher risk, higher reward...these QB's almost seem like stocks; you'll get a great QB, but they could end up biting you if and when they go down. The more conservative their running style, the more conservative your scoring ability in fantasy is!

You used that statistics stuff from college? Man, you are insane.

[KingGhidra]

Y'know I'm wondering... Yards is rather subjective compared to attempts per season.

McNabb and McNair are definitely on the high side of rushing attempts so they definitely belong in category #1.

However Brooks, Garcia and Stewart who fall in category #2, have a very similar amount of rushing attempts per year, yet fall in the not likely to get injured category.

So there doesn't seem to be a correlation between how often you run (which is generally how we categorize running vs pocket passer QB), but how good you are when you do it. Or maybe more to the point, how aggressive you are getting those extra yards. Guys like McNabb, McNair and Culpepper are just as likely to put a shoulder down against a linebacker or dive over a crowd of people as they are to slide. So I think the indictment isn't against running QBs in general, just those who I would call more... aggressive when they do run. Vick and Cunningham don't seem to fit in that category as far the the physical nature is concerned. You could call them risky since they might try to elude one time too many instead of sliding or running out of bounds.

Nice job btw.

[Flux]

Nice analysis, but KG does bring up a point about attempts over yards

Im also curious, what criteria did you use to pick these QBs? Just curious why the mix of the old and the new.

[Buckychudd]

Nice analysis, but KG does bring up a point about attempts over yards

Im also curious, what criteria did you use to pick these QBs? Just curious why the mix of the old and the new.

I intentionally chose yards.....really I don't consider Brooks, Brunell, Garcia or any of those guys rushing QBs.

When Vick/C-Pepp/McNabb drop back, they are always looking to take off and run, and are more willing to take a hit or try to lengthen a run by any means possible.....Brooks/Brunell/Garcia look to run when either lanes open up or things really break down in the pocket, and when they do run they are more likely to slide or run out of bounds to avoid the hits (generating less yards/attempt).

RushYards/Game seemed to illustrate this more.....but even based on Attempts/Game the ones I qualified as Rushing QBs have attempts in the 4.7-6.5 Range.....the other guys are in the low 4 range.

Anyhow, I wasn't measuring attempts.....I was pointing out that if you are drafting a QB who you expect to get lots of rushing yards, watch out for the injuries.

I tried to pick most of the current "big" name QBs.....then realizing that only gave me like 15 QBs, I expanded and took some of the "really big" name QBs from the last 10 years or so.

The rushing QB is a relatively new phenomenom. Currently we have 3 in the NFL (four counting McNair, who I think is borderline). Before them the only ones who really stick out are Cunningham (later in his career, in Minnesota, he became more of a pocket passer) and Young (I consider him borderline, like McNair).

[Lushcrush]

So there doesn't seem to be a correlation between how often you run (which is generally how we categorize running vs pocket passer QB), but how good you are when you do it.

How about the correlation between who's doing the running and who they are running from. Consider this:
velocity of object a=af = ai * + bi * ai * + bi *
Final velocity of object b=bf = ai * - bi * ai * + bi *
impulse = 2(ai - bi )* (bi -ai )*
Plug in the appropriate 300 pounds and 200 pounds into their respective spots and you see that in every case, 300 lbs > 200 lbs.
Moral of the story: Its hard to have a nice QB day when you run the ball in the NFL.

[TheHeat24]

Very Interesting... It only makes sense that if they are taking those extra 5-10 hits a game its gonna be extra cause for an injury.

[Adlaw]

Duh!!!!!!!!