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Round 2 - A make or break round this year?

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Round 2 - A make or break round this year?

Postby Wolverine » Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:27 pm

Round 1 should pose little doubt for intelligent GM's heading into this year's draft, most sites consistently paint the same advice on whom to take with variability only separated by 1-2 positions of opinion. However, Round 2 appears to be a different story altogether and a real mess no matter what way you look at it. The reason is simple: the lack of decent fantasy RB's in the league.

In our 12-team league last year, the team that won was the team whose first four draft picks in Rounds 1-4 actually played up to their billing. In reviewing the GM's drafting strategy last year, he seemed to stay with known contributors such as Moss and Gonzalez in Rounds 2 & 3 while others were buying into hyped picks. So going into this year's draft, there appears to be even more hype picks since the RB position has gotten a little thinner with every down stallworths. Not to mention, it appears that there is about 20+ receivers that are going to catch for over 1,100 yards and 10 TD's :-) if you read through many of these posts.

So who is worth their draft position in Round 2? Who are the <b>good</b> ;-D, the <b>bad</b> :-t , and the <b>ugly</b> :-o?

--------------------------

<b>Marshall Faulk</b> :-o - sounds like the STL RB situation is one to be avoided right now

<b>Daunte Culpepper</b> :-t - QB position is deep with a whole lot of scoring parity.

<b>Payton Manning</b> :-t - see Daunte

<b>Rudi Johnson</b> :-o - see earlier post, rough schedule and unproven track record makes him risky for an early Round 2 placement.

<b>Kevan Barlow</b> ;-D - no competition and no great alternative offensive weapons in SF maybe makes him a legitimate early Round 2 talent.

<b>Marvin Harrison</b> ;-D - still one of the top 3 WR even though last year wasn't his best.

<b>Fred Taylor</b> ;-D - solid fringe 1st or 2nd rounder, regardless of injury concerns

<b>Stephen Davis</b> :-o - who thinks DeShaun is a great back? *raises hand*

<b>Torry Holt</b> ;-D - stellar year in 2003, nothing suggests he can't have another good one in 2004.

<b>Travis Henry</b> :-o - Willis McGahee could (and should) eat into his production.

<b>Terrell Owens</b> :-o - was it that Thrash and Pinkston sucked so bad or does Donovan just prefer ball distribution?

<b>Michael Vick</b> :-o - see the QB thread. Although, if Vick can get his game synchronized between his passing and rushing, he could be the most unique pick of the draft. However, he showed last year that his style of play is a risky gamble so early in the draft.

<b>Corey Dillon</b> ;-D - his situation in NE, combined with his talent, makes him a solid #2 RB at the right draft spot in Round 2.

<b>Brian Westbrook</b> :-t - god I hope he's not a Round 2 pick for anyone.

<b>Domanick Davis</b> :-o - poised for a breakout year; however, he's small and Tony Hollings is turning some heads. There should be concern that he may not be garnering the full load of rushing carries for the Texans when your fantasy playoffs roll around.

<b>Hines Ward</b> ;-D - great receiver who is a fringe 2nd/3rd rounder.

<b>Tiki Barber</b> :-o - the Tiki haters came out after the season but he still produces when he isn't fumbling. Scoring TD's is a bigger problem for him than his fumbling...what's Coughlin's gameplan for using Tiki?

<b>Tony Gonzalez</b> ;-D - most likely a 3rd Rounder, but a worthwhile catch in the 3rd round.

<b>Chad Johnson</b> ;-D - possibly moves into Round 2 this year on some people's draft boards.

-----------------------------------

So with all that said, is it a worthwhile strategy to consider trading your second round pick for say a third and a fourth round pick? It depends I guess, but if you don't like your options going into your Round 2 draft position, it should at least be considered. That's what they do in the pros if they don't see players they think are good value pickups, so why wouldn't you consider it in a fantasy draft. My personal opinion is that there is a lot of risk in Round 2, especially in the 20-24 pick range. Can you get better value in Rounds 3 and 4 and manufacture an extra draft pick out of it? What about trading up to early Round 2 to get a less riskier pick by using up a 4th or 5th round pick as fodder?

In summary, do you think it's advisable for a savvy GM to wheel and deal his second round pick and what do you think you could get out of it? Sorry for this book but it seems to be an alternative view to the same anxiety many of us are having about Round 2.
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Re: Round 2 - A make or break round this year?

Postby TheHeat24 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 4:23 pm

Wolverine wrote:<b>Travis Henry</b> :-o - Willis McGahee could (and should) eat into his production.

<b>Terrell Owens</b> :-o - was it that Thrash and Pinkston sucked so bad or does Donovan just prefer ball distribution?



I gotta disagree with those two... I think both Henry and Owens make very solid second round picks especially if you ave already secured a good bac in the first round.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Fri Jul 09, 2004 9:08 pm

I know exactly what you are talking about. I think if any of the top 4 recievers falls to you in the 2nd its a decent pick. A lot of the RBs going in the 2nd are extremely risky, but there are going to be a couple gems. I do think better value can be had in the RBs a rd or two later - and I guess thats where my preference for a 2nd rd WR comes in.

If you can deal your 2nd rd pick for a 3rd and a 4th it might be a real nice move. I guess it really depends on who's available to you in the 2nd.

We kind of talked about this issue a couple weeks ago - check out this thread:

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/foru ... hp?t=62460

Its along the same lines as you are referring to.
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Re: Round 2 - A make or break round this year?

Postby goleafsgo96 » Fri Jul 09, 2004 9:32 pm

TheHeat24 wrote:
Wolverine wrote:<b>Travis Henry</b> :-o - Willis McGahee could (and should) eat into his production.

<b>Terrell Owens</b> :-o - was it that Thrash and Pinkston sucked so bad or does Donovan just prefer ball distribution?



I gotta disagree with those two... I think both Henry and Owens make very solid second round picks especially if you ave already secured a good bac in the first round.


I also agree with what Theheat wrote, and i disagree with you calling Domanic Davis "ugly", he makes a fine 2nd round pick.. whether it be beginning, middle, or end of round 2. I dont see how you can give him th "ugly" face but give a thumbs up to TOny G (we are talking second round aren't we)
I think anyone here would take Henry, Owens AND DD before Tony G.
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Postby Wolverine » Fri Jul 09, 2004 9:42 pm

Thanks for the link Cornbread, it appears we're on the same page. After going through my rookie fantasy season a couple years ago with a poor backfield, I vowed to always draft 2 RB's in the first two rounds. To the point KG makes, that philosophy is extremely limiting since you may be passing up better value picks at other positions.

I'm beginning to get more comfortable with the idea of a "Julius Jones" style draft and grab a top tiered WR that is more apt to produce 2nd round worthy numbers. There are no guarantees in fantasy football but denying proven track records for hype is imprudent. I wouldn't be all that upset in a 12-team league to have Marcel Shipp, Thomas Jones, Chris Brown, or maybe even, TJ Duckett as my 2nd RB if it makes me really strong at WR and affords me the ability to pick up a 6-10th ranked QB in the 5th round or so.

Regarding <b>Terrell Owens</b>, I can agree that he can produce legitimate top 5 WR stats in Philly this year. I feel much more comfortable in his ability to produce than I do about <b> Travis Henry</b>. I had Travis last year and all I heard last year was that he was a "warrior" for playing through injury. He scored 11 TD's last year, but 9 were scored in the context of 4 games. The other 12 games of the season he only scored 2 TD's. He was definitely feast or famine from my point of view and a player I don't get overly enthusiastic about with my 2nd round pick. I don't see why he will be any better than Marcel Shipp, Thomas Jones or Julius Jones, especially if he loses 5-10 carries per game to McGahee. I think if you break each 2nd round RB down you make a very good case for waiting a round or two to get a better value pickup.
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Postby Wolverine » Fri Jul 09, 2004 10:03 pm

The reason for the :-o on Domanick Davis was not that I think he's a bad player but because I think he's risky in Round 2. He had a fine year in 2003 once he got the starting gig. However, Houston is still a young team not afraid to experiment since they're trying to figure out the right ingredients to picking up W's. Allow Davis to sputter in a contest or two and all the sudden you see more of Hollings. Remember, last year at this time, everyone thought that Stacey Mack was going to be a great pickup in Round 4 or 5, hyping 1,000 yards or so and 7-10 TD's. By Week 6 he was no longer the starter anymore, it was Davis. Tony Hollings is the 2004 version of Domanick Davis lurking in the shadows waiting for the starter to get injured or stymied. Davis owners that fail to handcuff themselves with Hollings in the later rounds could pay for that misstep all season long.

The one intangible to like about DD is his combined catch/run ability. He has more versatility that allows him to be a weapon out of the backfield that improves his value. If he fell into the latter part of Round 2, I would definitely be pressed with an interesting decision to take Davis.

Regarding Gonzalez, I put him here to recognize that he shows up around the 24-28th picks in most drafts. He isn't quite Round 2 material but no one denies that he doesn't produce at his position. If waffling between Stephen Davis or Tony G. at the 23rd position, it may be in a GM's best interest to go the surer path. It all depends on who gets taken off the board before your pick. In the league I play in, I can almost assure you that a QB won't get considered until Round 3, I predict the first 24 picks will all be RB's and WR's.
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Postby pttwo » Fri Jul 09, 2004 11:24 pm

Travis Henry: 1356 rushing yards, 10 rush TD, 4.1 yards per carry
Marcel Shipp: 830 rushing yards, 0 rush TD, 3.6 yards per carry

I don't see how you can compare Shipp to Henry. I guess he's more consistent than Henry in that he consistently didn't score.

Obviously what you're comparing is Shipp + a top tier WR vs. Henry and a 2nd/3rd tier WR. But I think there's plenty of question marks around several top WR as well.
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Postby Wolverine » Sat Jul 10, 2004 12:42 am

Very true about Shipp and Henry last year. Moving into 2004 though, Arizona has improved offensively and Henry now has someone off the IL on his heels to share carries. Shipp should find the end zone more now that defenses have to respect a core of young talented WR's. However, if McCown can't get the rock to them, Shipp will have a time. Trust me, I'm not a Cardinal fan, but I see Henry and Shipp's paths converging more this year based on offseason moves.
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