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Wall Street & FF

Postby Buckychudd » Thu Jul 15, 2004 11:11 am

Bulls And Bears Of FF
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com

Just like Fantasy Football, Wall Street is full of prognosticators who collect random statistics, articles and predictions to formulate a strategy based on everything from astrology to technical analysis. Fantasy football follows the same type of strategy where as we take into account several hundreds of resources to provide us the same take on bullish or bearish opinions.

In fact, the line in the sand between both Wall Street and fantasy football is quite similar. Are we not investing in the players we root for every week? Do fantasy football enthusiasts continually dive into the free agent market looking for the next best "thing"? Do players become overvalued? Do we not pounce on any good deal we can find?

Exactly.

Fantasy football, like Wall Street is an inexact science. No longer do we sit back on our coattails and allow our competitors to get a leg up on our knowledge base. Using fantasy football sites to gain the edge you need is similar to buying a subscription to a day trader site to help you build your financial future. It is imperative if you don't have the time to build the empire you seek alone.

It is common for an NFL players' status to change quickly. Whether you view this as information as information of value or strictly as entertainment, you'll find both bullish and bearish opinions below.

The Bulls
A fantasy football bull is a player on the rise. The player is having his way in minicamp, his stock is rising and the future looks strong. To continue with the Wall Street motto: Things are just plain rosy! Picking up these types of players in your draft is tough because most people are aware that they are on the incline. Sometimes a bull can force you to reach in your draft and the player may be overvalued. If you're an owner who feels the player is on the rise, you are called a "bull" and said to have a "bullish outlook."

Here is a list of some bulls for you bullish types.

Donte Stallworth, WR, New Orleans Saints: All indications are that Stallworth has turned the corner. Recent glowing reports from minicamp indicate that he has lowered his body fat percentage considerably and has gotten his weight under control. Other reports indicate he is a lock to take the No. 2 wide receiver spot from Jerome Pathon. I feel he is definitely a bull to watch in the coming months.

Greg Jones, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: There is growing concern in fantasy circles that Jones will fill the void as the TD vulture in Jacksonville. Fred Taylor owners aren't the only ones aware of his past injury concerns. Jacksonville brass will make a point to limit his poundings at the goal line and this could bode well for the second-round pick. If Jones can prove to be reliable as a blocking and pass catching option out of the backfield, things could get dicey in Jacksonville.

Jerramy Stevens, TE, Seattle Seahawks: A lot of prognosticators have been hyping him for some time. Is this the year the 6-foot-7 Stevens finally lives up to expectations and takes the job from incumbent Itula Mili? Recent reports indicate that the former first-round pick is having a tremendous camp and seems to have turned the corner on his questionable work ethic. Keep an eye on this situation as the Seahawks should have a high-powered offense in 2004.

Tyrone Wheatley, RB, Oakland Raiders: If you need a RB4 option with some upside, look no further. Wheatley has had a tremendous camp and head coach Norv Turner took notice, stating Wheatley had "quickness in the hole" and was leading the pack. With journeymen running backs Amos Zereoue and Troy Hambrick also clamoring for playing time, this situation could turn like a share of Enron stock. Monitor it closely and if Wheatley is named the starter, move him up your rankings drastically. A 900-yard and 6-8 TD performance isn't out of the question for the Raiders starter.

The Bears
A fantasy football bear is a player on the decline. Think of this way, his stock is falling! A bear player makes it hard on fantasy owners to get a gauge on where and when to draft this player. My feeling on this type of player is to wait it out on the sidelines until you feel he's reached his bear market value. Once he has hit rock bottom, your talking about a low-risk, high-reward type player. If you're an owner who is pessimistic, you are called a "bear" and said to have a "bearish outlook."

Here is a list of some bears for you bearish types.

Stephen Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers: If you're a pessimist Stephen Davis is the perfect player. Most fantasy prognosticators feel Davis will be part of a running-back-by-committee type situation and if his second half of last year is any indication they could be right. Last year, over the first eight weeks of the season, Davis averaged 5.1 yards per carried and 124 yards rushing per game. After that, Davis fell off the radar and averaged 3.6 yards per carry and 75 yards rushing. DeShaun Foster appears to be fully recovered from the injury that sidelined him in his rookie campaign and despite a quality season from Davis last year, all indications are Foster will be given a lot of opportunities to get his chance to shine.

Marshall Faulk, RB, St. Louis Rams: I am sure by now that most of you have heard the Faulk downfall rumors. The talks of his demise are clearly overstated, however, there is some concern regarding his knees. There is no doubt that Faulk's career is winding down and the drafting of Steven Jackson in the first round of the 2004 draft was writing on the wall. I'm not sure I agree with the premature talk of Faulk's demise or that talk of him retiring are 100 percent accurate, but his stock is definitely falling and you may want to wait until it hits rock bottom before even considering him as your first or second options in fantasy leagues.

Peerless Price, WR, Atlanta Falcons: Let me point out a couple things you probably didn't know. The deal the Falcons gave Price kept them from signing Terrell Owens this offseason. The deal the Falcons gave Price was very close to the same numbers the Eagles gave Terrell Owens. When this deal first happened, I was very adamant that he was not worth the money they were paying him. The Falcons got desperate and made a bad decision that will haunt this franchise for many years. Price is not the type of player you want as your WR1 as many have projected. Anything above 800 yards and five TDs would be a complete surprise.

Jed Weaver, TE, Denver Broncos: Don't believe the hype surrounding Weaver. Sure, he looks like a lock to win the starting TE spot in Denver vacated by Shannon Sharpe. However, Weaver has accomplished absolutely nothing over his career and there is no reason to believe a stint in the Denver offense will do anything to help him. His forte is blocking and that is exactly what stockholders should expect of him. I'd be surprised if he matched last year's totals (35 receptions) and he will ultimately be overvalued on draft day.

As is the case with the stock market, make sure you are prepared before you venture out. Gaining as much insight on trends, analysis and projections can help you make sound decisions on draft day. There is an old stock market saying that says: Bears and Bulls can both help you be successful, but a healthy portfolio of depth and studs can help you achieve considerable fantasy wealth.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Jul 15, 2004 11:28 am

nice. I completely agree with the analogy. I make recomendations based on technical and fundamental analysis just like in FFootball.
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Postby Flux » Thu Jul 15, 2004 11:30 am

nice read Bucky ;-D

I have to admit im not high on S. Davis or Faulk at all, but either one could be huge for whoever takes them. Their values have dropped a ton, and probably have a little more to go before they bottom out. Im actually thinking of trying to trade for one or both in my money keeper league.

Of the guys on the rise, I think Stallworth has the best chance of living up to the expectations being placed on him (although I said that last year)
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Thu Jul 15, 2004 11:40 am

Flux wrote:I have to admit im not high on S. Davis or Faulk at all, but either one could be huge for whoever takes them. Their values have dropped a ton, and probably have a little more to go before they bottom out. Im actually thinking of trying to trade for one or both in my money keeper league.


classic contrarian strategy - nice. I just dealt S. Moss for Faulk in a league.
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Postby Buckychudd » Thu Jul 15, 2004 11:43 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
Flux wrote:I have to admit im not high on S. Davis or Faulk at all, but either one could be huge for whoever takes them. Their values have dropped a ton, and probably have a little more to go before they bottom out. Im actually thinking of trying to trade for one or both in my money keeper league.


classic contrarian strategy - nice. I just dealt S. Moss for Faulk in a league.

Nice job buying low CBM. As they say....
The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated.

Faulk ain't dead yet.
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Postby Flux » Thu Jul 15, 2004 11:56 am

haha stop it w/ all the financial lingo, im having college flashbacks 8-o

Its going to cause an onslaught of obnoxious analogies from me :-b
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Postby Warpigs » Thu Jul 15, 2004 12:00 pm

Greg Jones as the TD vulture in Jacksonville?? What happened to Toefield?
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Postby Flux » Thu Jul 15, 2004 12:04 pm

Warpigs wrote:Greg Jones as the TD vulture in Jacksonville?? What happened to Toefield?


They are planning on using G. Jones as an Alstott type of RB. He will see the short yardage and goalline carries (at least thats what i heard the plan was) and Toefield may be used as the 3rd down back and Taylors primary backup
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Postby CC » Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:58 pm

Nice article, and I agree that Faulk is an absolute bargain with this retirement news, take a chance on having a viable #1 back as a 2nd back, if it works out you'll prolly win your league, if it doesn't you can still recover.
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Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jul 15, 2004 8:26 pm

I really hope more Faulk rumors start circulating when he misses some of training camp and preseason. If I can pick him up at the end of round 2 or later I will be very happy.
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