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A running back can be good w/o a passing game

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Postby KingGhidra » Fri Jul 16, 2004 3:31 pm

9er Fan wrote:Hearst + Barlow for the past three years:

2003: 1792 rsh, 518 rec, 11 TDs
2002: 1647 rsh, 453 rec, 14 TDs
2001: 1718 rsh, 594 rec, 10 TDs

Except Barlow isn't Hearst when it comes to receiving.

Rattay/Dorsey are not mobile QBs like Garcia. RBs will get the vast majority of goal-line carries in 2004. Lets throw that out of the equation and assume the offense struggles and the SF running game performs 25% worse in 2004 than they have in the past. Averaging production for 2003-2001 and subtracting 25% (a huge dropoff) still yields:

2004: 1289 rsh, 391 rec, 9 TDs


And that would assume he got every carry, which happens about.... never.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is the following: Barlow will be THE RB for SF next year (barring injury)... How many NFL teams have one sure-fire go-to guy at RB? 10? How bad can Barlow be?


He could be TERRIBLE! I don't think he is, but he is gonna be largely yardage dependant since the multiple opportunities for rushing touchdowns won't exist. Since the majority of his yardage points will be rushing yards, any game the running game is shut down, his fantasy value is probably nil.

I haven't looked at the 49er schedule, how's it look?
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Re: A running back can be good w/o a passing game

Postby goleafsgo96 » Fri Jul 16, 2004 4:04 pm

Shader wrote:One of the biggest jokes I see is people saying that a rb won't be good because his team doesn't have a passing game. No one can prove this, yet it is said like it is meaningful and has merit. The biggest example is Kevan Barlow. Here is a player that dominated in his games last year when Hearst was out. Yet because TO and Garcia left, (both of which had subpar years last year) people are considering DDavis, Rudi, Dillon and others ahead of him for no reason.

Let's look at last year to back this up. Here are some top backs with bad passing games:

Jamal Lewis. One of the worst passing offenses in the league. Oh by the way, he ran for over 2k yards.

Tomlinson: The amazing thing about him is that his offensive line stunk as well as his passing game.

Portis: Denver didn't have a great passing game last year. Just average.

T.Henry: Buffalo's passing game was horrible last year. Just horrible. It didn't seem to hurt Henry

.


IMO, some backs have the ability to do well without a passing game, and some arent. Its because some backs have more talent than others. LT can put up mind boggling numbers without a passing game, as can JLEW, and everyone knows that. As for Portis, they had a fine passing game last year..bad example. Point is, you have got to be an exceptional back to put up great fantasy numbers without a passing game. In most people's eyes:

Tomlinson is..
Lewis is..
Barlow isnt.
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Postby 9er Fan » Fri Jul 16, 2004 7:08 pm

He could be TERRIBLE! I don't think he is, but he is gonna be largely yardage dependant since the multiple opportunities for rushing touchdowns won't exist. Since the majority of his yardage points will be rushing yards, any game the running game is shut down, his fantasy value is probably nil.


Barlow had 307 yards receiving last year in a RBBC. Based on the number of snaps he played, that's a lot of receiving yardage. For comparison, Lewis had 205.
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Postby bagobonez » Fri Jul 16, 2004 7:21 pm

Me being a Barlow owner (I took him ahead of Dillon and Rudi) I've got to step in and defend him.

That's one point that no one has really made, is Barlow's receiving yardage. He had 300 yards while splitting time with Hearst. In fact, Barlow would usually come out on 3rd downs because his pass blocking ability wasn't good. 500 receiving yards will be easily attainable for Barlow because he will be in on all 3 downs, and the 49ers will likely be dumping it to him alot because of the mediocre WR's.

He's going to get enough carries to get 1,200-1,300 yards. Now as far as touchdowns go, those are hard to predict. Both the Chargers' and Ravens' offenses as a whole sucked last year, but both Tomlinson and Jamal Lewis topped double digit TD's.

You can't make the case that Barlow will suck because of the passing game. No one's passing game sucked more than Baltimore's, and Jamal led the league in rushing by a land slide. LT2 has one of the worst offensive lines in the league, yet he's a consensus top 2 RB.

What you CAN make the case for is that both LT2 and Jamal Lewis have so much talent that they make up for their teams' short comings. That's really the only case anyone has against Barlow, but Barlow has loads of potential (as evidenced by his 5.1 YPC last year). He has a rare size/speed combo much like Ahman Green.

Here's what I project Barlow's numbers to look like for the year.

1,200 rushing yards 9 TD's, 500 receiving yards 2 TD's.

1,700 total yards and 11 TD's. Not bad for a 2nd RB.
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