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Re: Duece McAllister

Postby kid a » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:28 pm

Bennett4Prez wrote:Then please don't draft him this year cuz I'm counting on him to rule the league once again. I don't know what I'm arguing for. Go ahead, take Owens #1. Maybe he will outproduce Priest, just maybe...


lol@Owens. I meant guys like Tomlinson, Deuce, and Ahman Green and Portis.

Obviously if Priest were to fall to 3 or 4 I'd take him, but we all know that would never happen.
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Re: Duece McAllister

Postby kid a » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:44 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
The Saints had no more injuries than any other team out there. Stallworth played as many games as he did the year before, and if Brooks was hurt I didn't notice. Take Ricky Williams, Jamal Lewis, Ladainian Tomlinson, etc etc who were all hurt far more by the teams injuries around them (their quarterbacks actually missed games, not had some phantom injury through which they still put up good numbers), and there you have the exact same arguement. There's hardly a team out there that didn't have an injury to an O-linemen and a #2 WR.

The 1 more year of experience thing means nothing, everyone in the league has 1 more year of experience. The problem in New Orleans isn't people's performance in the system, it IS the system. Saying the system stayed the same is actually a detrement to your arguement. I would be much more easily persuaded if you had told me they were implementing an entirely new system.

I don't see how you can say last year's TD total was definitely a fluke and will "obviously" improve up to around 16-20. As a Deuce owner last year, and hence someone that was following his games closely, what I saw wasn't anything that led me to believe it was a fluke and normally he would score. He wasn't getting TD runs called back for penalties, he didn't fall one inch short a bunch of times, it was nothing like that, he got 8 TD's flat out, no fumbles on the goalline, nothing, just 8 TD's.

Saying that "I see no reason he won't finish #1" for someone that has never really been all that close to finishing #1 and who's team is nearly identical to those seasons is not a legitimate arguement. Saying "I see no reason he won't finish #1" about a guy like Priest who finished #1 the last two years might make some sense, you can't just pick a guy from the middle of the first round and say you don't see any reason why he won't finish better than the guys that scored 19 and 14 more touchdowns than him last year while his team comes back with almost the same personnel and same coaching/system as the year he trailed by 19 touchdowns, it's YOU who have to make that arguement, not them.

And so far, the only arguement that you've even come close to selling me on is that the Saints signed Sam Gash, which I didn't know. However, I highly doubt that Gash will account for 14-19 touchdowns. Because almost all the guys he's chasing had about the same amount of injuries on offense, and have 1 more year of experience in their system.


A sprained MCL is a phantom injury?? Brooks did play through it, but I don't think he looked like his normal self. I expect his numbers to rise this year also. Deuce still had excellent numbers last year despite any surrounding injuries, save for the TD total of 8.

So, I ask you,
2002: 16 TD's
2003: 8 TD's, despite accounting for 40% of the offense and a banged up line.

Based on this, where do you project his TD total to be? 5? 3?

I wouldn't want to have the system changed if Deuce has the potential for AT LEAST 16 TD's. If he's going to be relied upon that heavily, and he's 1 year removed from 16 TD's, odds are he is closer to that total than 8.

Obviously I know I'm wasting my time if I were set on convincing everyone that they should take him over Priest, but at the same time the most trustworthy tool in fantasy football is your gut. I feel Deuce will be the #1 fantasy player this year. We shall see.
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Postby Free Bagel » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:14 pm

And I don't fault you for that. If you're gut tells you that Duece is going to be the #1 overall player this year then that's a very legitimate prediction.

However, my fault lies in that the entire basis for your arguement, IE "I dont' see any reason why not" doesn't hold any basis for someone that's never finished in the top 5 and wasn't even CLOSE to #1 last season. Here's a reason why not, because he didn't do it last year.

If you want to make an arguement like that you have to make an arguement as to why he WILL do it, not why he WON'T do it, because he DIDN'T do it before.

If you want to make an arguement like that you'd have to make it for someone like Priest. It makes sense to say "I don't see any reason why Priest won't be #1 this year" because Priest has BEEN #1 the last 2 years.

Maybe if the Saints had signed Terrell Owens or Orlando Pace or Mike Shanahan (always produces great RB's) you could try and say it for Duece, but when you take a guy that wasn't in the top 5 last year and got no major upgrades around him that's not a legitimate arguement.
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Postby kid a » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:20 pm

Got'cha. Re-reading my original post I guess that I did sound as if I was saying "Deuce is better than Priest, prove me wrong!" I think we're on the same page, I just have a strong feeling about Deuce which is showing in my projections.
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